The John Batchelor Show

Thursday 19 March 2015

Air Date: 
March 19, 2015

Photo, left: Ethnic jewelry of Djibouti, worn by an Afar woman (an Ethiopian clan).  After 100 years of relative independence, Djibouti has decided to rejoin its historic nation, Ethiopia. This has considerable geopolitical ramifications in the Horn of Africa and on the Saudi peninsula.   
News, 2015-03-20:  The U.S. Embassy in Djibouti closed its doors to the public on Thursday to review security in the tiny Horn of Africa state that hosts an American military base, the embassy said in a statement posted on its website.  In addition to hosting U.S. and French military bases, Djibouti also contributes troops to the African Union mission (AMISOM) trying to stabilise neighbouring Somalia to the south.
   The embassy did not say if there was any imminent threat.  "The U.S. Embassy will be closed to the public on Thursday, March 19, to review its security posture," the embassy said in a statement posted on its Facebook and Twitter accounts, adding it would reopen for regular business on March 22. The embassy will be closed, as usual, on Friday and Saturday, the local weekend. A State Department official said the embassy took the decision "in light of ongoing threats", but declined to elaborate.
    Last May, a man and a woman blew themselves up at a restaurant in Djibouti filled with Western military personnel, killing a Turkish national and wounding several Western soldiers. The Somali militant group al Shabaab later claimed responsibility for the attack.  The al Qaeda-linked al Shabaab has carried out many gun and bomb attacks outside Somalia, including as assault on a Kenyan shopping mall in September 2013 that killed 67 people. 
 
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-host:  Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal editorial board & host of OpinionJournal.com.  Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents.
 
Hour One
Thursday  19 March 2015 / Hour 1, Block A: Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal editorial board & host of OpinionJournal.com; in re: Janet Yellin and "patient no more but not over a cliff"  -- balance sheet is gargantuan.  "When unemployment is down to 6.5%, we'll raise rates" – now it's at 5% and no raise.  Global implications; a gamble going in, and going out, of uncharted waters.  / Right to try: states may pass a law allowing terminally-ill patents to ask a drug company for the right to try a drug that's  passed a stage-one trial.  / Chicago: two Illinois stories. Aaron Schock resigns after decorating his ofc to mimic Downton Abbey; and his travel spending and some other spending.  . . .  See Kim Strassel's column on Senate.
    Opinion Journal: ‘Patient’ No More  Assistant Editorial Page Editor James Freeman on why a modest Federal Reserve interest rate hike would do more good than harm.
. Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen hinted that ... the Fed might raise interest rates sometime this year ... in markets rallied ... assistant Editorial Page Editor James Freeman joins didn't change ... I thought raising interest rates with which would kill the market what happened yesterday ... well does she basically blamed the little that she did take the word patient out of their ... their normal statements meaning ... you can expect a rate increase sometime this year but ... she made it clear that when she does start raising rates probably maybe September we're guessing ... it's not can it be that harsh I don't worry Wall Street ... stocks can keep flying credit still to be easy because ... the rating prisons when they come or not to be that big I know it's almost like Rabois knowledge is trying to figure ... out what parts every single word ... now the Fed seems to change the rules a lot changed ... in just a little while ago they said they raise rates when unemployment hit what six and a half percent ... now we're down in my five-and-a-half ... varieties are a nice that wall for how the central bank functions ... well ... you know ... we talk about the Taylor rule they don't really like the following the rules of but they ingesting the issue is why are we still it border really crisis emergency drop by and zero interest rates when as you said on employment is ... is getting better five nap percent is not that great now we know labor force participation is not good still lot of people out of the workforce but ... this has been a great year in job creation relative to what's ... come before so ... this is not a crisis we don't need the zero rates to revive the economy there's plenty accredited I get it we should have higher rates of Heidi you explain the Fed's reluctance ... that I think it's a fear an ... unfair to have the markets go down ... and then they have to get ... it ... because sometimes markets go up and sometimes the good that we're rooting for markets to go down ... but ... this cycle where they continue ... to want to please the market would be easier credit and stocks continue to rise is not really how you grow well for long-term identical change in unit politics doesn't play a role here ... really ... well you know what we're really to find out you know is Janet Yellen a politician or a Shia series central banker it's over the next year because this is when ... you know the Greenspan era these are the burn Anqi Greenspan eighty two with overtaking policies of to run their course ... and now ... it's time for her to say ... we're going to have a IIa ... a solid currency in which is fine and ... and we're not can have ... a subsidy for risk and where to find out if the Senate or a pigeon are James Freeman ... thanks very much thanks for ...
Opinion Journal: More ‘Right-to-Try’ Victories   The Goldwater Institute Senior Policy Advisor Starlee Coleman explains why more states are adopting laws to give terminally ill patients access to experimental drugs.
Thursday  19 March 2015 / Hour 1, Block B: Edward W Hayes, criminal defense attorney par excellence, in re:  Mayor de Blasio's  St Patrick's Day. ("NYC Mayor De Blasio late for St. Pat's Mass and again snubs annual NYC parade - this guy is a sad joke") Gov Cuomo's polls.
Thursday  19 March 2015 / Hour 1, Block C: James Patterson, Institute of Public Affairs, Australia, in re: Malcolm Fraser  and James's "long memory."  The Australian  @australian  Comment: Voters are focusing on Foreign Minister Julie Bishop, not Abbott, Turnbull or Shorten / ICYMI: Sydney's Muslim community sets up $1 million TV studio. Parliamentary spills.
Thursday  19 March 2015 / Hour 1, Block D: Olivier Guitta, managing director, GlobalStrat security & geopolitical risk consultancy; in re: Tunisians rally at museum where terrorists killed 21   ... shooting attack on a museum in Tunisia that left 21 people dead, according to media reports . . . terror attack in Tunis agt Bardo museum; sadly v. predictable priority of govt is to secure the country to draw FDI.   / Ansar al Sharia is the perpetrator of attacks in Tunisia.  jihadists came in after France entered Mali, First time ISIS pulled off a terrorist attack in Tunisia.
AQAP and AQIM are al Qaeda subsidiaries; competition with ISIS, also escalation.  Taqfiri jihadists intend to take over the Mahgreb and Francophone Africa.   Using Libya as a springboard to attack Mahgreb. Muqtar came through Libya, a failed state wth fove or six major jihadist groups.  French and Italians taking the lead maybe  under the AU.. Mali, Niger and Chad.  Boko Haram having joined ISIS.  US is present in Djibouti [which is about to revert to Ethiopia], but no boots on ground. Italy will take a lead and not wait for Washington.  The only reason the French intervened in Mali, under a Socialist president surrounded by peaceniks . . .  it's beyond out of control. Potential for attacks in cities the US and Europe. 
     Tunisian Pdt said they arrested abt 1,000 extremists in past few days; could explain why some terrorists may have felt the heat.  Potential perpetrators Bardo Attack: Ansar al Sharia, AQIM, IS:  all have called for attacks in Tunisia, symbol of semi- success of Arab Spring.  Bardo Attack bloodiest terror attack in Tunisian history, will cripple tourism industry in the ST but meanwhile even more robust CT response needed.
 
Hour Two
Thursday  19 March 2015 / Hour 2, Block A: Robert Satloff, executive director of The Washington Institute, in re: US/Israel relations post-election, Peace process, Jordan’s border. Outrageous statements by senior US officials on PM Netanyahu, misquoting him and presenting visibly inaccurate information.  Bibi did not say "never a two-state solution" – rather, he said, not now, until circumstances change somewhat.  Judging without facts is not befitting of the US.  Sour relations at he highest levels now require intervention.   WH reps threaten to go to the UN – bizarre.  Dual threat: PA said here are three choices: we go to ICC, or we stop security cooperation, or we dump the PA on Israel.  Also . . . Been exactly a year since Abbas was in the White House; no answer yet. IS this about the election results, or the Iran deal?  It’s an accumulation of detritus from six years; culminated in Bibi's address to Congress.  Gloves are off between Israel (and with it, the Arab states supporting Israel) and the US.  Meanwhile, Khamenei asserts he'll fly the Iranian flag over the White House – and not a word from the Obama Administration.   It’s putting all its eggs in the Iranian deal basket, which [threatens Arabs and Israel and Europe].  WH doesn’t want to address these issues.
Thursday  19 March 2015 / Hour 2, Block B: Ambassador Ido Aharoni, Consul General of Israel in New York, in re:
Thursday  19 March 2015 / Hour 2, Block C: Chemi Shalev, US editor and correspondent for Ha'aretz; English-language blog, "West of Eden"; in re: 
Thursday  19 March 2015 / Hour 2, Block D: John Hannah, senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies, in re: Pres Obama has spent 100% of his time attacking Israel, even as Iran makes [huge, lethal] threats that go
 The Sun Sets on a Good Iran Deal. There’s so much wrong with the emerging Iran nuclear deal that it’s hard to know where to begin. But as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made clear in his speech this week to Congress, the biggest flaw is almost certainly the deal’s so-called sunset provision.
Amazingly, the Obama administration is prepared to sign an agreement that will expire in a mere 10 years time. At that point, any restrictions that the deal imposes on Iran’s nuclear program would vanish. Iran’s economy would be free from all nuclear-related sanctions and its government would be treated the same as any other non-nuclear weapon state that is a non-proliferation treaty-member in good standing.
That means that Iran could be like Holland, which spins hundreds of thousands of advanced centrifuges to produce reactor fuel. It could be like Japan, which maintains enough stockpiled plutonium for thousands of nuclear warheads. It could be like Brazil, which plans to produce bomb-grade uranium enriched to 90 percent to power its nuclear submarines.  All that will be perfectly permissible under the deal that Obama is negotiating. And it would have the full blessing of the United States and the rest of the international community, not to mention billions of dollars in . . . .[more]
 
Hour Three
Thursday  19 March 2015 / Hour 3, Block A: Ariel [Eli] Levite, senior associate, Nuclear Policy Program, Carnegie Endowment; in re: Does Iran have a nuclear weapons program or nuclear power program?  All the attributes look like a weapons program.  Question:  with a deal, will Iran in fact hold back, or would it move forward despite the deal? How do you make a deal with an entity that has a long history of deception and deceit?  I agree that it might occur that Iran could have a nuclear program but not a nuclear weapon.  Constructions around it with multiple organizations.  I'm agnostic about the deal.  What will we work around it t o offset the [problems]?   We know that current arrangements are inadequate – IAEA has been barred from many sites.  The larger Middle East arms race hasn’t quite begun but might.  I think that at he end of the day the Israelis govt needs to look at every aspect, every [jot and tittle].  Penalties if Iran doesn’t let in inspectors?  If Congress speaks, that'd add more confidence. relations between the Hill and the White House are awful.  I have great faith in the wisdom of the American people and of Congress. Can we marshall bipartisan support t put forward the understandings of the [necessary components] of a deal, including penalties for transgressions.  Today 353 members of Congress sent a letter to the WH.  Iran says that its Majlis has to approve, so how can Teheran criticize the US for this process?  US processes are transparent. 
Thursday  19 March 2015 / Hour 3, Block B: Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re:  
Thursday  19 March 2015 / Hour 3, Block C: Paul Gregory, Hoover, in re:  On March 16, Kremlin insiders leaked a third version of the Nemtsov murder case. The first version of March 8 accused the five Chechens under arrest of  killing Nemtosv on their own due to Islamic fundamentalism. The March 13 version depicted the Chechen 5 as mercenaries of Ukraine and cast suspicion on their boss, Chechnya’s strongman, Ramzan Kadyrov. The March 16 story line is that the Chechen 5 acted on their own out of hatred for Nemtsov and that their boss, Kadyrov, had nothing to do with the matter. Can we expect another version tomorrow? The answer seems to depend on how behind-the-scenes power struggles within the Russian regime play out.   http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2015/03/18/the-kremlins-new-new-version-of-the-nemtsov-murder/
Thursday  19 March 2015 / Hour 3, Block D: Conor Dougherty, NYT, in re:  Managers Turn to Computer Games, Aiming for More Efficient Employees   BetterWorks is part of a growing office software niche that aims to whip workers into shape through compulsory competition and public scoring. 
 
Hour Four
Thursday  19 March 2015 / Hour 4, Block A: Daniel Henninger, WSJ WONDER LAND, in re: ObamaCare for Arms Control
Thursday  19 March 2015 / Hour 4, Block B: Russell Berman, Atlantic POLITICS, in re: “Scott Walker, Anti-Union Man” - The signing of a “right-to-work” law gives the Wisconsin governor another victory to offer Republican primary voters. Russell Berman reports. 
Thursday  19 March 2015 / Hour 4, Block C: Pat McLaughlin, Mercatus Center, in re: The Hill on vestigial laws - laws that remain on the books long after their purpose has been served. Despite the fact that few are acted on, leaving them in place can cause some major problems (kind of like a human appendix).  The op-ed: http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/finance/235431-regulatory-appendicitis-and-the-dangers-of-vestigial-regulations
Thursday  19 March 2015 / Hour 4, Block D: Philip Terzian, Weekly Standard, in re: Howard Schultz, Horrible Boss
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