Thursday 18 August 2016
Photo, left: Romanov family.
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-hosts: Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal Editorial Board & host of Opinion Journal on WSJ Video. Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents.
Hour One
Thursday 18 August 2016 / Hour 1, Block A: Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal Editorial Board & host of Opinion Journal on WSJ Video; in re
Thursday 18 August 2016 / Hour 1, Block B: Pastor William Devlin, Infinity Bible Church & National President, REDEEM!; in re: Kurdish Peshmerga [= “fight to the death”] moves ahead smartly, taking over great swaths of northern Iraq, is close to securing Sinjar mountain (home to Yazidis for a century) and is moving in on Mosul from the east. On Monday, Pastor Bill was on the front lines with the Peshmerga a kilometer from ISIS just outside Mosul. Peshmerga morale is high; last 72 hours, have taken ten villages from ISIS. These formerly were Christian towns; not clear that Kurds will return the land to the ancient Christian communities and to Yazidis, Fighting heavily in Karaksh(?). Go north and west of Duhoq to Sinjar province, where Yazidi are . . . Peshmega getting helpful US airstrike backup: are now east of Mosul, Iraqi army is south thereof, a pincer play upcoming. Also Shia from Iran. See: Rudaw TV for updates. NGOs preparing for a massive humanitarian crisis, Mosul was of 2 million people. East of Mosul: Dibahke – 2,500 children without water, huge problem. Expect a Mosul offensive to begin on 24 August. Tanks? Aircraft? Spotters? Iraqi army & US coalition are spotters. Peshmerga are poorly armed, have 20-yr-old weapons; old Kalashnikovs. Hand-held weaponry,
Thursday 18 August 2016 / Hour 1, Block C: Victor Davis Hanson, Hoover; in re: . . . a class-cultural divide here. . . . nation-building (which no one wants) or isolationism (no one wants this, either) – or Jacksonianism, promoting American concerns first. Trump’s books say that acting crazy and unpredictable is part of his negotiating style. The worst bad actors in sub-Saharan Africa and across Eurasia. . . . Hillary’ State Department: Clintons offered a premise that they could help you on the future and made $150 million out of forward-looking investment. . . . One US county has zero health care because Obamacare has been abandoned. I had a bad accident two years ago, regularly stand in line at a clinic in a county so broke it’s poorer than Appalachia. The snowballing effect of lies.
Thursday 18 August 2016 / Hour 1, Block D: Christopher Harmer is a Senior Naval Analyst with the Middle East Security Project; Institute for the Study of War; in re: Russian war aircraft (SU24 plus strategic bomber) now based in Iran to bomb in the siege of Aleppo. Beware the S300. There’s zero distance benefit – flying 50 to 100 mi from inside Syria to attack Syrian targets is a whole lot easier; but going to Iran is a strategic messaging campaign to the Middle East and the West. Shows that Iran is totally committed to keeping Assad; also, setting up a long-term commitment – maintenance, hosting mil personnel, et al., much safer in Iran than in Syria. Not to mention access to fresh water, a reliable electricity grid, and a chance for troops to take a weekend of R&R. Whenever the Assad regime looks as though it’ll collapse, Russia increases support, ups the ante. Bringing in huge heavy bombers, heavy payload; a siege by air of Aleppo out of Iran. Russia and Iran don't have a natural alignment, but are on a couple of key issues: Iran needs land bridge into Syria, Russian need access to Tartus mil base; Russia wants to grow into a worldwide deployable navy. Going from a transactional relationship (buying weapons) to a strategic alignment. Finally, sale of S300 to Iran, most advances d system available for export, GCC has nothing remotely capable of going head to head to the S300 and surviving. The US nuclear deal with Iran was never going to survive: the mullahs will never act responsibly The avalanche of cash of s flowing onto Iranian coffers: used to support state sponsors of terrorism. Kermit Roosevelt overthrew Mossadegh in 1953 with the motto, “The Soviets are coming!” Fifty-four years later, they arrive.
Hour Two
Thursday 18 August 2016 / Hour 2, Block A: Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re: In 1943: Supermarin Spitfire in Iran being prepared to be flown to Russia. Lend-lease extended into Russia; Battle of Kursk. Note that SU24s in Iran: first time since lend-lease. Btw, Iran was hostile to the US, being identified with Nazis; change name from Persia to Aryan (Iran). Nazi ops worked out of Teheran throughout the war. . . . Zarif going to South America now to counter the increasing influence of Israel there. Paraguay, Uruguay, . . .
In Incirlik US has 51 nuclear bombs said to be secured from attack but Turkey will let Russia use its air bases. Preliminary report that some of the weapons have started to be moved. European doubt about the reliability of NATO. Germany’s report on Turkey: “The hub of Islamists.” Cocktail of real danger. Future trends of US-Turkish relations, China urgently courting Assad, now; pro-Assad and pro-Russian involvement China also has at least 100 people fighting with ISIS?? A Turkish-Iranian bloc?
Thursday 18 August 2016 / Hour 2, Block B: Blaise Misztal, Bipartisan Policy Center; in re: Erdogan went to St Petersburg to visit with Putin; what did he get? The both got a photo p, stick thumbs in eyes of US . Eke Dec 2014, in Turkey: ne energy pipeline. All well rcd; not materialized Petersburg mtg along similar lines. What Turkey wanted was economic assistance, Russia’s economy crashing, BUT: Russia-Turkey axis in Syria;, say they'll work together. Maybe Russian war planes will be based out of Incirlik, next to US planes. Mind-boggling. . . . Strategic conundrum of whether or not to keep Turkey in NATO – which is a bit safer As for the Iranian component: we've been counting on Iranian-Turkish enmity, but now a triumvirate of those two plus Russia. After the spectacular bombing in the Istanbul airport, wholesale departure of all tourist. “The Anatolian Calvinists.” Today Fitch declined to follow Moody in downgrading Turkish debt. Erdogan will release 38,000 convicts from prison in order to provide space for the incoming folks just arrested post-putsch. ISIS operate s on Turkish border; ongoing civil war ’twixt Erdogan and the PKK (Kurds); and tens of thousands of criminal to be loosed on society (“petty thieves”); the commander in chare of fighting both ISIS and the PKK is in jail the mil man in charge of Incirlik is in jail. A third of senior officers in jail.
· http://bipartisanpolicy.org/article/blaise-misztal-on-u-s-iran-policy-latest-developments-in-turkey/
· http://bipartisanpolicy.org/article/u-s-to-turkey-back-off/
· http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/the-kurds-in-turkey-a-gloomy-future
· http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/boris-zilberman-a-pretty-big-deal-with-irans-help-russias-air-campaign-in-syria-is-about-to/
· http://www.wsj.com/articles/turkey-to-release-38-000-prisoners-to-make-room-after-coup-attempt-1471436157
Blaise Misztal is the director of Bipartisan Policy Center national security program. He previously served as the project’s associate director and senior policy analyst. At BPC, Misztal has researched a variety national security issues, including Iran and its nuclear program, Turkey, cybersecurity, stabilizing fragile states, and public diplomacy in the 21st century. He has testified before Congress and published op-eds in The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, The Weekly Standard, The New Republic, and Roll Call. In addition, Misztal wrote and directed the 2009 “Cyber ShockWave” simulation that aired on CNN.
Thursday 18 August 2016 / Hour 2, Block C: Michael Rubin, past Pentagon official, in re: Kurdistan. Iran. Yemen. Pastor Bill at Duhoq: returned from Plains of Nineveh with Peshmerga, could see ISIS flag through binoculars; noose it s tightening with Peshmerga and Shia militias. On arrival in hte city, what to do? IS will fall into the woodwork and reemerge as soon as feasible. Yemen: tribalization of the war: peace process can be revived? Yemen is a very much a tribal society – five-part civil war Houthis, traditional govt, southern govt, AQAP, & ___. Note UAE have troops on the ground sweeping up al QWQ in southern Yemen; have done a good job, but it's all in the midst of a civil war. In Yemen, no electricity for months, can't even charge a cell phone, Houthis overt about Iranian support; will withdraw, yet have veto power over the Yemeni got. Iran wants Hezbollah 2.0 Duking it out in Syria (Iran); playing it out in Yemen; probably also in Bahrain, where US baes its Fifth Fleet. Explosive projectiles, bombs, If only the US showed a lack of interest, problems would go away? Quite the opposite! / See Russian strategic bombers in Ran, eke SU24s. Khomeini’s slogan, neither East nor West. Meanwhile, Iranian parliamentarians demand review of presence of Russian forces on Iran, which infuriates many. / Congress debates wisdom of supporting Boeings - Iran needs them why? Thomas Pickering lobbied for JCPOA, did not reveal that he was paid by Boeing. Boeing aircraft purchases: vastly too many seats for Iranian civilian use; clearly helpful to military. Axis of anti-Americanism: Russians have a permanent air base in Syria; in Iran, it’ll be pretty solid. In the last two weeks, during the Rio Olympics,Russians have been sponsoring military Olympics with 24 countries- competitions in sniping, underwater sabotage, all th games. US left the Middle East, vacuum filled by Russian soldiers, diplomacy, from the Med to the Indian Ocean (add Sri Lanka). Libya: Am, Italian, French and ____ all have ops there.
· https://www.commentarymagazine.com/foreign-policy/middle-east/iran/trust-iranian-banks/
· https://www.aei.org/press/how-diplomatic-shortsightedness-a-decade-ago-empowers-hezbollah-today/
· https://www.commentarymagazine.com/foreign-policy/middle-east/iran/exposing-iran-boeing-lie/
· https://www.commentarymagazine.com/foreign-policy/middle-east/turkey/turkey-shameful-media/
· http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/david-daoud-hezbollahs-strategy-in-syria-wont-help-against-israel/
· http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/thomas-joscelyn-opposition-to-islamic-state-claims-more-ground-in-sirte-libya/
Michael Rubin is a former Pentagon official whose major research areas are the Middle East, Turkey, Iran and diplomacy. Rubin instructs senior military officers deploying to the Middle East and Afghanistan on regional politics, and teaches classes regarding Iran, terrorism, and Arab politics on board deploying U.S. aircraft carriers. Rubin has lived in post-revolution Iran, Yemen, both pre- and post-war Iraq, and spent time with the Taliban before 9/11.
Thursday 18 August 2016 / Hour 2, Block D: Boris Zilberman, FDD, in re: Russia (“the pivot nation for Eurasia”): why are Russian bombers now established in Iran? Wants a shorter route – cuts time?? Saves fuel? [Not to Aleppo.] Russia may not want the level of cooperation it has in Syria, but does want an opening for further cooperation, perhaps later to the Persian Gulf. Turkey unlikely to take a formal role, but de facto arc of Russian interest – to Iran, Azerbaijan (Aliev, Putin, Rouhani). Contentious relations brought together. Russian people always skeptical of Turkish people and vice–versa. Putin fired chief of staff: getting rid of old oligarchs? [Or harbinger of a large political shift to come?] . . . Turkstream, the natgas pipeline: does Russia gain concessions by playing with Erdogan, or is Putin just toying with him? All regional players are fighting for market share. Does Putin have the upper hand with Erdogan in the Black Sea Basin? Matters a lot whether the pipeline ends in Turkish or in European Thrace. Putin has a lot more buttons to push outside of the energy deal. Possibility of an eruption around Ukraine/ Daily fighting on the contact line ’twixt Russian and Ukrainian forces; a smouldering fire. Really unstable.
· http://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-growing-military-ties-with-iran-1471475536
· https://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2016/08/18/The-shock-of-a-Russian-base-in-Iran.html
· http://www.techpolicydaily.com/technology/dnc-hack-ok-russia/?utm_source=paramount&utm_medium=email&utm_content=AEITODAY&utm_campaign=081716
· http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/dr-aykan-erdemir-the-turkey-russia-reset/
· https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/8706/iran-bases-russian
Boris Zilberman lends his background and expertise on a range of legislative issues encompassing defense and foreign affairs to FDD’s relationship with Washington’s leading policy makers. With a focus on the Middle East and Russia, Boris is an authoritative voice helping to frame complex issues affecting America and her allies. Boris leads FDD’s Russia work as part of the Center on Sanctions and Illicit Finance which focusses on the evolving financial and strategic developments in the US-Russia relationship.
Hour Three
Thursday 18 August 2016 / Hour 3, Block A: Ambassador Dennis Ross, Washington Institute, in re: The US Administration speech at the UN in September; Pres Obama’s final address there. May lay out parameters on Palestinian-Israeli peace . . . lay out not a solution but a sort of legacy. Doesn’t require political capital or diplomatic heavy lifting. “Balanced” means addressing both Palestinian and Israeli security needs; this won’t happen. A parameters speech would oblige PA actually to do something – but Palestinians won’t accept anything but a maximalist position; however they’ll press for a settlements resolution, which will require nothing of them but will require a good deal from Israel. Pres Obama won’t demand anything before the election, as that might damage Hillary Clinton. After Nov 9, however, . . . Hams would not win in Gaza in a fair election now, because it rules there and is much disliked (hated); whereas it does not rule in the West Bank, where Fatah has made a rat’s nest of polity, and it might well won in a bunch of municipalities.
· http://www.jpost.com/Diaspora/Dennis-Ross-doubts-Obama-will-push-UN-resolution-464286
· http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/18/china-steps-up-military-cooperation-with-assad-as-top-admiral-vi/
· http://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-builds-up-army-near-ukraine-border-1471537008
· Are interests aligning against US goals in Syria?
· Are the Russians focussed on ISIS?
Ambassador Dennis Ross is counselor and William Davidson Distinguished Fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Prior to returning to the Institute in 2011, he served two years as special assistant to President Obama and National Security Council senior director for the Central Region, and a year as special advisor to Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. A highly skilled diplomat, Ambassador Ross was U.S. point man on the peace process in both the George H. W. Bush and Bill Clinton administrations. He was instrumental in assisting Israelis and Palestinians to reach the 1995 Interim Agreement; he also successfully brokered the 1997 Hebron Accord, facilitated the 1994 Israel-Jordan peace treaty, and intensively worked to bring Israel and Syria together.
Thursday 18 August 2016 / Hour 3, Block B: Michael (Mickey) Segall, IDF Lt.-Col. (ret.), Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs & Alcyon Risk Advisors; in re: Ongoing scandal about the larcveny in Gaza and West bank by the local chief of World Vision 0f hundred of millions rerouted tohHamas military work and away from populace that’s genuinely suffering, European nations also withdrawing und and demanding explanations, Expect real reform? Not. Hamas has used this channel for years to funnel money to bldg. tunnels; if it's not World Vision, it’ll be some other NGO. Will re-arm military in Gaza and elsewhere; the corruption is one of the main characteristics of the Palestinian orgs – Hamas and Fatah. Hamas funnels intl organizati0ns’s money; also huge corruption in UNRWA in Gaza Strip. False narrative on charity money coming in from Europe. European s long have been warned of this and they preferred to pretend it wasn't happening. Hezbollah said to become a conventional army (with 30K missiles); can it handle a real conflict? Hezb is stretched – Iraq, Yemen Syria; in Syria, dozens of its men killed, paying a high rice, resentment bldg. on social networks about the many funerals. People starting to ask hard questions. Horrible pix of he child in an ambulance; the price of Iran, Syria, and Russia killing civilians in Aleppo. Nasrallah has lived for years in his bunker. Russia is running the show in Syria: Russian planes take off from Hamedan in Iran. Russia is the enforcer.
· http://jcpa.org/article/ethnic-opposition-to-irans-regime-is-on-the-rise/
· http://jcpa.org/cracks-iran-syria-hizbullah-russia-axis/
· http://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/Moving-from-Hamas-to-Fatah-in-Nablus-464529
· http://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/Australia-suspends-World-Vision-aid-after-Hamas-stole-Gaza-charity-money-463318
IDF Lt.-Col. (ret.) Michael (Mickey) Segall, an expert on strategic issues with a focus on Iran, terrorism, and the Middle East, is a senior analyst at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs and at Alcyon Risk Advisors
Thursday 18 August 2016 / Hour 3, Block C: Joshua Green, Bloomberg Businessweek, in re: Steve Bannon and Kellyanne Conway to the Rescue of the Failing Trump Campaign. Obama Ignoring the Cubans. @JoshuaGreen, Bloomberg Businessweek. Mary Anastasia O’Grady, WSJ Editorial / “I am who I am,” Donald Trump declared, shortly after the New York Times ran a story depicting chaos in his presidential campaign. “I don’t want to change.” He wasn’t lying. The next day, on Aug. 17, Trump shoved aside his campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, and installed Steve Bannon—ex-Naval officer, ex-Goldman Sachs banker, ex-Sarah Palin filmmaker. Until Trump called, he was executive chairman of Breitbart News, the avatar of the so-called alt-right: the nationalist, racially paranoid splinter group of anti-establishment conservatives who have rallied to Trump’s banner. http://twitter.us13.list-manage.com/track/click?u=a0fd6f3f123ded4f1a8830ee8&id=bc74b34d9c&e=6226aef03e
Thursday 18 August 2016 / Hour 3, Block D: Mary Anastasia O’Grady, Wall Street Journal, in re: http://www.wsj.com/articles/obama-betrayed-cubas-dissidents-1471211018?tesla=y
Hour Four
Thursday 18 August 2016 / Hour 4, Block A: The Romanovs: 1613-1918, by Simon Sebag Montefiore part II of II (segment 5 of 8)
Thursday 18 August 2016 / Hour 4, Block B: The Romanovs: 1613-1918, by Simon Sebag Montefiore part II of II (segment 6 of 8)
Thursday 18 August 2016 / Hour 4, Block C: The Romanovs: 1613-1918, by Simon Sebag Montefiore part II of II (segment 7 of 8)
Thursday 18 August 2016 / Hour 4, Block D: The Romanovs: 1613-1918, by Simon Sebag Montefiore part II of II (segment 8 of 8)