The John Batchelor Show

Thursday 17 November 2016

Air Date: 
November 17, 2016

Photo, left:  A hogshead is one-quarter of a tun, which equals 252 wine gallons.
https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--BYlrOEQY--/c_fit,fl...
 
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-hosts: Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal Editorial Board & host of Opinion Journal on WSJ Video. Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents.
 
Hour One
Thursday  17 November 2016 / Hour 1, Block A: Mona Charen. NRO, in re:  If Donald Trump has the magnanimity to receive Romney well, then he’s a different person from the rough character we saw in the campaign. DJT cares a great deal about loyalty; only a small group remained loyal to him and there was a fear that he’d promote only those; now, it looks as though he welcomes experience. Now: Nikki Haley, others, are visiting Trump Tower.  Flying the Mexican and Palestinian flags during protests on American elections: offensive.  If non-Americans demand their “rights,” you scratch your head. . . . Hold he word “racist” in abeyance till when you need it so it has some bite; beware “Wolf, wolf.” The left is so brainwashed about race, class, gender, that they’ve lost perspective.   . . . American people are not ideological; they look at their situation and well-being and decide up or down.
Thursday  17 November 2016 / Hour 1, Block B: Edward W Hayes, Daily Beast, and criminal defense attorney par excellence, in re: The despair of the Democrats in New York, and the continued anti-Trump Tower demos, and the meeting between Red Bill DeBlasio and Trump.
DeBlasio yesterday met with the president-elect in the armed camp under protection of the Seekies.  Asked about the extreme diminution of sales along Fifth Avenue, where every business is depending on this season cto make a big chunk of its annual income, said, I don't care about Gucci and Tiffany.  The lower-middle-class workers who work in those stores just lost their (extremely important) Christmas bonus.  How stupid can you be?
Mrs Clinton went home, curled up and didn't want to leave home for two days after having watched election results from the Peninsula Hotel (five stars). 
Thursday  17 November 2016 / Hour 1, Block C:  Henry Miller, Hoover, in re: GMO, non-GMO;  John Podesta; Frankenfish (salmon); anti-Zika field trials. What will the Trump Adm look like?  Need trimmed regulation, structural changes such as remove the top-heaviness in the ofc of the FDA commissioner In 1980 it was lean; now it’s unrecognizable – from lean to Baroque to Rococo   Also, need Asst Secy Health at HHS needs to change: used to have real managerial oversight, but Bill Clinton changed it to advisory, only.  A gatekeeper/regulator can approve a problem, or else delay or prevent the appearance of a salubrious drug.  To avoid the first problem, DFDA routinely commit the second, Need better management to punish regulators who make he second kind of error.  Common are not only five-year views, but sometimes twenty-two-year reviews! To check incoming officials, must ask: ”What do you intend to do to prevent five-year delays such as with Oxytech [against] Aedes aegypti mosquitoes?”
Thursday  17 November 2016 / Hour 1, Block D:  Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal Editorial Board & host of Opinion Journal on WSJ Video; in re:  Melanie Kirkpatrick, event yesterday at the Explorers Club (and soon to be seen on C-Span) on Thanksgiving. Original in 1620 as Pilgrims landed; Devastated by plague, as were the Wampanoag.  Fifty-three people at the first Thanksgiving dinner.   Ninety Wampanoag arrived and brought their own food. Brought oysters and many foods, and we think turkeys.  Savagery by the Euros essentially wiped out the generous Wampanoags.  . . . George Washington invited people to celebrate what was to become Thanksgiving.  When he issued not a proclamation but an invitation, Congressman claimed that was too much power and was religious.  Two hundred years later, Thomas Jefferson grumpily opposed it.  In the XIXe, a hogshead of wine, a hogshead of beer and a hogshead of punch.  Lincoln proclaimed unity and to come together as Americans and celebrate the national bounty.  XXe: The great cranberry scare of 1959: a member of Eisenhower’s cabinet observed that if you in effect ate 100 lbs of cranberries daily for years, you might get cancer.  George H W  Bush initiated the annual pardon of a turkey. 
 
Hour Two
Thursday  17 November 2016 / Hour 2, Block A:  Ambassador John Bolton, AEI, in re: The absence/disengagement of America for so long has alarmed much of he world; a strong Secretary of State will encouraged many nations.
Global NATO (idea of Asnar), from the London Times: make sure the NATO alliance not crumble after the end of the USSR; Asnar asks for a  League of Democracies – bring in Japan, Singapore, Israel, et al. Will add real purpose and direction. The UN SC has long since ceased to provide real security,. By broadening the scope,  . .   Singapore, e.g., and South Korea, New Zealand, Australia: 15 years ago people went out of their way to avoid North Korea at all costs; today, after DPRK nuke tests , South Korea is even more ferociously opposed. If Beijing gets control of sea lanes used for oil shipment to South Korea, Seoul knows that it’ll  be in deep trouble.
Iran deal: it's a strategic debacle for the US. Even in Iran complies with this badly-worded agreement, it's still a path to nuclear weapons swiftly and in operation in 15 years. “Axis of Evil” is not metaphorical – Iran, North Korea, China, Pakistan.  US Congress; 419 to 1 on Iran Sanctions Act.  How can the US leave the JCPOA? Or simply enact new sanctions?  Do all of the above.
John Kerry kowtows to Iran; even Paul Ryan calls him a shill for the Iranian Chamber of Commerce. Iran has again exceeded the totality of the heavy water permitted (130 tons) --  the Europeans fell for the craven Obama negotiations because they wanted trade.  Need to address the political reality.  We should have abrogated he deal early on; now the Euros will scream that their precious deals are abrogated. They can do trade wit Iran, just not also with he US at the same time.
New UN SG?  Guterres will not change anything. When he picks his Undersecretaries-General we’ll see. 
John R. Bolton, a diplomat and a lawyer, has spent many years in public service. From August 2005 to December 2006, he served as the U.S. permanent representative to the United Nations. From 2001 to 2005, he was under secretary of state for arms control and international security. At AEI, Ambassador Bolton’s area of research is U.S. foreign and national security policy.
         https://www.aei.org/publication/the-new-order-is-our-chance-to-keep-up-in-fast-changing-world/
         https://www.aei.org/publication/trump-needs-to-reverse-the-iran-deal-and-assert-our-interests/
         https://www.aei.org/publication/next-presidents-foreign-policy-priorities/
         https://www.aei.org/publication/can-trump-walk-away-from-the-iran-deal/
         http://www.afpc.org/publication_listings/viewArticle/3358
Thursday  17 November 2016 / Hour 2, Block B:  Malcolm Hoenlein, in re: Palestinian Authority;. Nablus. Camps.  Hamas apptd a senior guy with close ties to Hezbollah and Iran.  Eleven Arab countries joined a statement accusing Iran of sponsoring Middle East terrorism – wrote to the UN!  Growing Sunni-Shi’ite tensions.  Regional conflict always boiling behind the scenes.    . . . Dissolution of the JCPOA: Iran on a $10 bil arms deal with Russia, incl 90 tanks and  artillery aircraft; Legally, Russia not allowed to deliver till 2020. Also a deal with China, and issuing warning statements about the JCPOA. Again as always, the Iranian mullahs are vacuuming in al the money and beggaring the populace.
Bibi Netanyahu knows Trump well.  The debate is about Jerusalem: US president is empowered to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital.
Libya, now Somalia-on-the Med. 
Thursday  17 November 2016 / Hour 2, Block C:  Joseph M. Humire, Center for a Secure Free Society (SFS); Fellow, Middle East Forum; in re: Pres. Obama’s trip to Peru; Latin America/ISIS; Argentina.  Peru headed by Pres Pedro Pablo Kuczynski; APEC meeting where the presidents of Russia, China and the US will be together. Islamic terrorism is the next topic. A Lebanese national, Mohamed Hamdar, member of Hezbollah, is about to be convicted (we think), which will shift designations importantly.  Currently, being a member of Hamas, Hezbollah, ISIS, is not illegal in South America; only narcotics and its ilk.   The only two continents where ISIS has not attacked are Antarctica and South America. Almost attacked at the summer Olympics in Brazil but were stopped. 
Hezb has infrastructure there: banking, business, well established for thirty years.  The distinctions between Sunni and Shi’a are not marked in South America so they often work together. AL Qaeda joins in.
The new Trump administration may finally include Latin America in security as well as business activities.
Nismann case might become a continental focus (that’d be a welcome shift).  Macri cannot fight Iran and Hezbollah by himself – the country needs support. The Obama Adm has not lent that support, but if Trump does, Argentines will do a lot more.    Velayati and Rafsanjani are both on the suspect list for having participated in the Buenos Aires bombing in 1993, along with the Iranian regime. 
While serving as the Director of Institute Relations at the Atlas Economic Research Foundation, Joseph Humire began developing the SFS network by running programs around the world focused on promoting security and defense issues to the classical liberal community.  In 2012, SFS spun off from Atlas into its new home at the International Freedom Educational Center, where Mr. Humire currently serves as the Executive Director. As a global security expert specializing in asymmetric warfare, Mr. Humire has produced leading research and investigations on Islamic extremism and Iran’s influence in the Western Hemisphere, as well as other topics. His work is frequently sought after by various entities within the U.S. Department of Defense and intelligence community, as well as prominent think tanks and universities throughout the Americas. Moreover, Mr. Humire is an eight-year veteran of the United States Marine Corps having served combat tours in Iraq and Liberia, as well as taking part in the multinational training exercise in Latin America and the Caribbean: UNITAS 45-04.
         http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/opinion/2016/11/17/opinion-apec-provides-opportunity-for-peru-to-lead-latin-america-on/
         http://www.newsmax.com/LuisFleischman/hugo-chavez/2016/11/17/id/759453/
         http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/senator-alarmed-by-isis-outreach-to-latin-americans/article/2607321
         http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2016/11/15/russian-president-putin-says-plans-to-meet-with-obama-in-peru-to-discuss-syria/
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http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/homeland-security/306607-peru-sum...
Peru summit provides opportunity to ramp up fight against ISIS
When President Barack Obama visits Lima this week for a two-day Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, the fight against Islamist terrorism should be at the very top of his agenda.  In the last year, ISIS affiliates have appeared in Mexico, Argentina, Paraguay, Colombia, the Caribbean, and Brazil, to name a few. A terrorist plot by ISIS affiliate Ansar al-Khilafah targeting the 2016 Summer Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro was fortunately foiled.
The counterterrorism success in Brazil was a combined effort by local and international authorities who acted quickly to thwart 12 Brazilian jihadists planning to emulate the November 2015 Paris attacks by ISIS. The catalyst enabling the Brazilian Federal Police to uncover this plot was the country’s first antiterrorism legislation enacted this past March. This new law gave Brazilian officials the legal authority to case, survey, arrest, and convict Islamist terrorists before they act.
The key to convicting Islamic terrorists in Latin America is to criminalize their membership in foreign terrorist organizations. Unfortunately, Latin American countries lack the proper designation lists to add Islamic terrorist individuals and organizations, limiting their ability to prevent terrorist actions.  More than half lack any form of antiterrorism legislation. In many countries being a member of ISIS or Hezbollah is not a criminal act in and of itself.
Left unaddressed, this leaves Latin America with the same legal vacuum that existed in the United States twenty years ago.  Prior to 1996, the U.S. lacked a proper legal framework to address the rise of terrorism, both foreign and domestic. After the 1993 World Trade Center bombing and the 1995 Oklahoma City bombings, Congress passed the Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act.
One of the most important provisions of this law allows the U.S. government to designate foreign terrorist organizations and prohibit their funding. In practice, this led to what is known as the Foreign Terrorist Organization list managed by the State Department. The list, which is updated every two years, allows U.S. authorities to more easily track and prosecute members of jihadist organizations, helping to preempt future terrorist attacks.
Sen. Joni Ernst, an Iowa Republican, recently wrote a letter to President Obama urging his administration to be more proactive in working with Latin American officials to curb the expansion of Islamic extremists into “our own hemisphere.” A good way to start would be for President Obama to highlight the importance of Peru’s case against Mohamad Ghaleb Hamdar during his visit.
Hamdar, an alleged Hezbollah operative, was arrested in October 2014 with hundreds of pictures of high-value targets and critical infrastructure in Peru, as well as residue and traces of explosives on his person and apartment.  The Hamdar case was prominently mentioned in the U.S. State Department’s 2015 Country Reports on Terrorism. Moreover, the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets and Control (OFAC) recently added Hamdar to a Specially Designated Nationals (SDN) List effectively labeling him a terrorist and restricting his access to U.S. funds and American companies. Hamdar’s wife, Carmen Carrion Vela, a U.S.-Peruvian dual citizen, has also been arrested in Peru for potentially providing financial support to Hamdar while residing in Florida.
If convicted, Hamdar faces a minimum 20-year sentence, sending a strong signal to jihadists around the world that Peru and Latin America are off limits. A conviction could change the antiterrorism legal landscape in Latin America at a time when worldwide jihadists are on the move. A guilty verdict would mark the first time a member of an Islamic terrorist organization has been convicted in Latin America for plotting a terrorist attack.  It would also constitute a de facto designation of Hezbollah as a foreign terrorist organization in Peru, a legal precedent that may spur additional designations throughout the region.
President Obama now has the perfect platform at APEC to broaden the coalition against the global jihadist movement and add a potential new partner in Peru to the U.S.-led coalition to counter ISIS. Let’s hope he takes up the opportunity.
Joseph M. Humire is the executive director of the Center for a Secure Free Society (SFS) and a Fellow for the Middle East Forum.
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Thursday  17 November 2016 / Hour 2, Block D:  Oren Kessler, FDD, in re: Trump met with el Sisi, spoke of excellent chemistry. I was in Egypt for ten days, just returned, Egypt mostly looking for above all a shift in tone: ore supportive of Egypt’s fight against extremists; were the language one of partnership rather than sanctimony, that would go a long way. “The alliance with Washington is bedrock to us; but if you had a friend who abandoned you in your hour of need, would you cry about it or form alliances with others?”  That’s the Obama Adm which ahs all but sabotaged Egypt in security, so Cairo was forced to turn to Russia and China.  El Sisi cannot dare to lessen security against Muslin Brotherhood or its filial, Hamas.
Egyptian-Saudi tension: Saudis have poured many billions into Egypt; looks to have been squandered; Saudis are tightening belts. Also, a real difference f opinion on Syria: Saudis are all in countering Iranian influence, while Egypt is focussed elsewhere.  Saudis now very upset and have turned off the oil spigot.  Egypt is probably among the world’s happiest people that Trump has won (Obama and Clinton are gravely unpopular).  Much more solid US-Egyptian relations.
Oren Kessler is deputy director for research and a research Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, where he focusses on Egypt and the wider region. Oren moved to Washington in 2014 from London, where he had served as a Middle East research Fellow at the Henry Jackson Society think tank. Prior to that he worked as a journalist in Israel, including as the Jerusalem Post’s Arab affairs correspondent and as a writer, editor, and translator for Ha’aretz English Edition.
         http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/oren-kessler-price-controls-ready-to-roll-plus-us-trade-delegation-arrives-today/
         http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/egypt-and-israels-growing-economic-cooperation
         http://www.defense-aerospace.com/article-view/feature/178725/russia-sees-opportunities-as-egypt-rebuilds-its-air-force.html
         https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/in-post-arab-spring-egypt-muslim-attacks-on-christians-are-rising/2016/11/13/f50a18e2-84fc-11e6-b57d-dd49277af02f_story.html
 
Hour Three
Thursday  17 November 2016 / Hour 3, Block A:  Aykan Erdemir, founding member of the International Panel of Parliamentarians for Freedom of Religion or Belief ; in re: Turkish society is divided 50-50 in favoring and opposing Erdogan; but the media are pretty much shut down, NGOs are closed, politicians jailed, elected mayors jailed and replaced by Erdogan; appointees, so the opposition cannot mobilize. Potential leaders arrested. When you jail every official Kurd, you send a disastrous message to Kurdish youth that only violence works. 
Erdogan enjoys de facto judiciary, executive, military and other powers; he’s now moving with a constitutional amendment to make him de jure a presidential tyrant. No checks and balances, no separation of powers. 
The neo-Ottomanist vision: revanchist, wants the empire back.  Ottomanism and associated irredentism are popular only with Erdogan’s grass roots, but academics, professionals, even most people, are very sceptical. Erdogan is issuing maps showing that Turkey includes parts of Syria, Iraq, Armenia – catastrophic; the Turkish political elite have learned the hard way about such adventurism. Sane Turks who see irredentism fear it as incipient political and social collapse. Nonetheless,  Erdogan keep pushing
How long can he keep 30,000 people in jail, including the best-educated, the strongest families?  He doesn’t realize that Turkey is not a rentier state; it hasn’t oil.  Rather, the economy in a nosedive, the lira is sinking; it's all not sustainable.  This is brought on by hubris— Erdogan’s snall circle of sycophants feed his overweening sense of grandeur.  Expect an economic then a political collapse.
Russia?  It's taken good advantage of Turkey; Putin has won a lot of concessions on nuclear plants that Russia is bldg, and a modus vivendi in Syria and aroud the Middle East. 
The present, "pragmatic" relations ‘twixt Turkey and Russia are in fact a big win for Putin.
Dr. Aykan Erdemir is a former member of the Turkish Parliament (2011-2015) who served in the EU-Turkey Joint Parliamentary Committee, EU Harmonization Committee, and the Ad Hoc Parliamentary Committee on the IT Sector and the Internet. As an outspoken defender of pluralism, minority rights, and religious freedoms in the Middle East, Dr. Erdemir has been at the forefront of the struggle against religious persecution, hate crimes, and hate speech in Turkey. He is a founding member of the International Panel of Parliamentarians for Freedom of Religion or Belief, and a drafter of and signatory to the Oslo Charter for Freedom of Religion or Belief (2014) as well as a signatory legislator to the London Declaration on Combating Antisemitism.
         http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/dr-aykan-erdemir-erdogans-new-target-secular-education/
         http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/dr-aykan-erdemir-erdogans-new-target-secular-education/
         http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/dr-aykan-erdemir-israels-new-man-in-ankara-could-be-in-for-bumpy-ride-read-more-http-wwwal/
         http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/fikraforum/view/turkeys-policy-hinders-the-war-on-terror
         http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/fikraforum/view/two-paths-for-turkey
         http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/president-announces-kemal-okem-as-turkeys-new-ambassador-to-israel.aspx?pageID=238&nID=106179&NewsCatID=510
         http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/israel-nominates-eitan-naeh-as-new-envoy-to-turkey.aspx?pageID=238&nID=106176&NewsCatID=352
Thursday  17 November 2016 / Hour 3, Block B: Emily Landau – Iran. Not feasible or desabe to end he Iran deal ow because the benefits are front-ended to Iran; they keep all the money and we’d go back to zero in restrictions. We need to hold its feet to the fire anent all the restrictions in the deal (very weak, but preset); also to absolutely change 180 degrees the interaction between US and Iran in its deeds – Syria, nuclear dvpt, maritime attacks . The dynamic has become very unhealthy for the US while Iran feels it can easily best the US.   US needs to assert itself and quit being the mullahs’s lawyer in every violation. The US can do a lot by itself; when convenient, Obama has claimed that it has to work with partners, yadda yadda; but when Obama wanted to have secret negotiations, behind he backs of Europe, Saudis, Israel, everybody,  it went right ahead. With Russia: DC needs to reduce tensions, also reassert US foreign policy vis-à-vis the Middle East; that there’s no vacuum.  A difficult balancing act, but it has to be done.
If the US broke the Iran deal, what?  Would not weaken Iran: he US says we’re pulling out but Res 2331 exists in the UN. The world would not see an end to the Iran deal. Even if everyone did, Iran would not be weakened.   US Congressional Iran Sanctions Vote 419 to 1: pressure is the key! 
Emily Landau is a senior research Fellow at INSS and head of the Arms Control and Regional Security Program, leading its research, conference outreach, and mentorship projects. Dr. Landau has published and lectured extensively on nuclear proliferation, arms control, and regional security dynamics in the Middle East; WMD proliferation challenges in the post-Cold War era; Israel's nuclear image and policy; and developments in global arms control thinking in the nuclear realm.
         http://www.inss.org.il/uploadImages/systemFiles/What%20Trump%20Should%20Do%20on%20Nonproliferation%20-%20Emily%20-%20Shimon%20-%20The%20National%20Interest%20-%20for%20site.pdf
         http://www.inss.org.il/uploadImages/systemFiles/Repairing%20the%20Iran%20nuclear%20%20-%20Ephraim%20and%20Emily%20-%20for%20site.pdf
         http://www.inss.org.il/uploadImages/systemFiles/Iran%20deal%20violation%20-%20Emily%20Landau%20-%20JP%20-%20for%20site.pdf
         http://www.inss.org.il/uploadImages/systemFiles/As%20Israeli%20right%20celebrates%20%20-%20JTA%20-%20INSS%20researchers%20-%20USA%20elections.pdf
Thursday  17 November 2016 / Hour 3, Block C: Hotel Mars, episode n. Michael Listner, Founder & Principal at Space Law & Policy Solutions; in re:  space. (1 of 2)
Thursday  17 November 2016 / Hour 3, Block D: Hotel Mars, episode n. Michael Listner, Founder & Principal at Space Law & Policy Solutions; in re:  space. (2 of 2)
  
Hour Four
Thursday  17 November 2016 / Hour 4, Block A: Sebastian Gorka, Vice President and Professor of Strategy and Irregular Warfare at the Institute of World Politics; in re:  Trump & foreign policy  (1 of 2)
Thursday  17 November 2016 / Hour 4, Block B:  Sebastian Gorka, Vice President and Professor of Strategy and Irregular Warfare at the Institute of World Politics; in re:  Trump & foreign policy  (2 of 2)
Thursday  17 November 2016 / Hour 4, Block C:  Bob Zimmerman, BehindtheBlack, in re: space
Thursday  17 November 2016 / Hour 4, Block D:  Bob Zimmerman, BehindtheBlack, in re: SpaceX: an explosion conducted as part of investigation by our Accident Investigation Team working on the 1 Sept rocket failure.   Trying to duplicate the conditions, and so created an explosion. Or, they thought they’d figured it out and got an explosion anyway. Or, something else went wrong.  SpaceX perforce invited NASA, FAA and feds to participate in the investigation.  
Elon Musk’s interplanetary transport system.  Carbon fiber tanks – efficient weight-to-strength tanks, but the problem is: it's very difficult to build it.  Did pressurization tests on a barge in the ocean.   . . 
. . .from 15 degrees North to 60 degrees north will be covered by SpaceX satellite; eventually, the whole northern hemisphere.
Orion: NASA has had a decade to build one capsule with people on it; now they announce that the software may not be ready for the first test flight in 2018.  NASA simply cannot get it done.  That’s how govt functions.
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