Photo: 
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-hosts: Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal, and Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents
 
Hour One
Thursday 15 March 2018 / Hour 1, Block A:  Lisa Daftari, Fox News; investigative journalist focussing on foreign affairs , esp the Middle East and counterterrorism; in re:
LD:  Need to re-frame US concern over Iran deal as American concern for human rights in Iran; otherwise, Iranians will see the abrogation of the Iran deal as a blow against national pride.
MK: We need to be careful not to alienate our European allies too much
JB:  What is it in my mind that says, Go to it!?
MK: Not let Europeans call rump irresponsible and have the Democrats use that against Trump.
LD: They’ll do that anyway,  . . . .
LD: The latest protests we saw were different from 20089: currently, We pay to much for eggs and bread while all out money is being diverted to Syria, Yemen, Lebanon.  No good!
MK: The WSJ editorial page has never supported the Iran deal . . .
LD: If Pres Trump surrounds himself with people who agree with him, he can play good-cop/bad cop
JB: I think the train has left the station.   . . . John Bolton and Mike Pompeo will follow their president.   . . . when the Iranian people understand that this will not be pretty.
Thursday 15 March 2018 / Hour 1, Block B: Mary Kissel, WSJ editorial, in re:
Thursday 15 March 2018 / Hour 1, Block C: Francis Rose, NationalDefenseWeek.com and francisrose.com, in re:  @FrancisRoseDC, WJLA-TV, WMAL-AM,  in re: Dr Shulkin, head of the VA, may be asked to leave soon, . Began on Monday as Pres Trump was entering a helo, said, “We’re close to getting the Cabinet we want.” Note that Shulkin went to Wimbleton on the taxpayer dime, and also insisted on taking his wife to the Invictus Games in Canada “to meet Price Harry” – and was said to be rude when that was denied.   . . .  Policy: 1. Shulkin said earliest on: The VA will not be privatized under my watch. 2. Is he getting good results for veterans?  Hard to know because the VA is so bolloxed up that it’ll take a few years to see which person made which difference – it’s govt-run healthcare.  . . .  Firing the wrong people for the wrong reasons.  A witches’s brew that doesn't bode well for the Secy of Human Services.
http://www.govexec.com/management/2018/03/va-overstepping-congressional-intent-unacceptable-firings-senators-say/146640/
Thursday 15 March 2018 / Hour 1, Block D:  Henry Miller,  Hoover Institution,  in re: The Right to Try – drugs not yet approved by the FDD but that have passed Phase One testing and apparently are efficacious. The FDA has a process called Expanded Access or Compassionate Use that ‘s similar to Right to Try.   FDA has approved 99% of those requests. . . .  Could Scott Gottlieb expedite this? He could push for reciprocity, but that’s anathema to the FDD as it dreads giving up any sovereignty over regulation. “Discussing reciprocity with the FDA is like discussing Thanksgiving with turkeys.”—European official.
 
Hour Two
Thursday 15 March 2018 / Hour 2, Block A:  Steven A. Cook, Eni Enrico Mattei senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa studies, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR); author, False Dawn: Protest, Democracy, and Violence in the New Middle East; in re: Turkey and Egypt. Islamic State is no longer the existential threat it was; the importance of Incirlik is lessened. Symbolic aspect: US stores 90 nuclear weapons there; but ratcheting back by the Trump Adm.  Moscow: Turkey needs Moscow.   . . .  Soon-to-be-State Secy Pompeo will hold a [hard line].  He has close working ties with the intell community in Egypt, which will be important for the US in the near future. . .  . Transfer of Egyptian islands to the Saudis . . . Challenges of security in western desert, challenges to Pres Sisi’s power (It took eight years for Mubarek to consolidate his power; el Sisi has had half that). 
         https://www.cfr.org/blog/strongmen-are-weaker-they-look
         https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/democracy-post/wp/2018/03/15/the-high-level-intrigue-thats-overshadowing-egypts-election/?utm_term=.1e6cec5b28e0
         https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/03/egypt-2018-presidential-election-180314202658016.html
         https://www.reuters.com/article/us-egypt-politics-arabs/after-turmoil-at-home-egypt-struggles-to-revive-power-abroad-idUSKCN1GR155
         https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/03/turkish-led-assault-syria-afrin-displaced-10000-day-180315181847193.html
Thursday 15 March 2018 / Hour 2, Block B:  Ilan Berman, in re: Saudi and Iran. North Korea.   Saudi wa in Yemen: widespread starvation.  Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will visit Washington in some h ours; lots of glad-handing, a charm offensive to show that DC approves of what he’s doing at home. Congress signaling that it will not write a blank check. . . .  Saud neighbors are somewhat skeptical: changes so far are skin-deep.  Look at Saudi states’s relations with Wahhabism and toxic ideologies: no sense that MbS wll change these.  Why – culture? Funds? History?  Not one thing, alone, but contribing factors: demography – the exponentially expanding ruing class (the 7,000 princes, e.g.), and Wahhabi theologians are essentially untouchable in the political system, 
         https://www.alhurra.com/a/the-limits-of-saudi-reform/424938.html
         http://freebeacon.com/national-security/u-s-monitoring-possible-north-korean-military-base-syria/
         http://syrianobserver.com/EN/News/33959/Iran_Sets_New_Drone_Base_Palmyra_Following_Israel_Strikes_Source
         http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/dubowitz-mark-the-pyongyang-tehran-axis/
Ilan Berman is Senior Vice President of the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, DC. An expert on regional security in the Middle East, Central Asia, and the Russian Federation, he has consulted for both the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency and the U.S. Department of Defense, and provided assistance on foreign policy and national security issues to a range of governmental agencies and congressional offices. He has been called one of America's "leading experts on the Middle East and Iran" by CNN
Thursday 15 March 2018 / Hour 2, Block C:  Jonathan Schanzer, FDD, in re: We now have more than a decade of Hamas governing in Gaza; it’s now in even much worse condition than it was formerly; Hamas has alienated many of its Middle Eastern neighbors.  Mahmoud Abbas has isolated himself from the US and others in a way I’ve never seen before; Saeb Erekat told Amb Nikki Haley to “shut up” at the UN – the mouse that roared.  Who laid the bomb?  Israel, Iran, Qatar, the US – according to the Middle eastern press, any or all of the above. However, Hamas is the top foe of the Palestinian Authority; and there are a dozen other terrorist groups in Gaza.  . . .  Lots of UNRWA pledges; will anyone pay? The real question is, will Nikki Haley go back to the countries that have made the pledges.  US would like to see some of the agreed reforms.  . . .  No clear succession plan in PA; Abbas has been in US hospitals; is in his eighties, a pack-a-day smoker; in the thirteenth year of a four-year tem.  . . . Two-state scenario? Abbas sees that he’s lost a lot of leverage. Sunni states are now more aligned with the US and even Israel than with the PA.
         http://jcpa.org/the-real-casualties-of-the-bomb-attack-in-gaza/
         https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-palestinians-gaza/white-house-hosts-meeting-on-gaza-crisis-without-palestinians-present-idUSKCN1GP34M
         https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/mar/14/wh-hosts-meeting-israeli-arab-officials-aid-gaza/
Dr. Schanzer has worked at FDD since February 2010 and now serves as the Senior Vice President. He worked as a terrorism finance analyst at the U.S. Department of the Treasury, where he played an integral role in the designation of numerous terrorist financiers.  A former research fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Dr. Schanzer has studied Middle East history in four countries. He earned his Ph.D. from King's College London, where he wrote his dissertation on the U.S. Congress and its efforts to combat terrorism in the 20th century. Dr. Schanzer is part of the leadership team of FDD’s Center on Sanctions and Illicit Finance, which provides policy and subject matter expertise on the use of financial and economic power to the global policy community.
Thursday 15 March 2018 / Hour 2, Block D: Anna Borshchevskaya, Ira Weiner Fellow at The Washington Institute; in re: . . . threat that Putin represents to the US.  Sanctions are effective only as part of a broader strategy, and we have no broader strategy.   . . .  With current US Adm, not clear hw the US goes from “threat” to “how.”  Syria:  a perpetual war machine; Russians doing this on the cheap.  Benefits: using Syria to advertise weapons, dispose of old munitions. Energy infrastructure; phosphates, Syria’s natl energy resources – have to go through Russia to buy; and telecommunications.   . . .  A very low voter turnout in Russian elections in a few days would hurt Putin’s appearance of legitimacy.. Growing protests, esp outside major cities.  . . . Is there an exit strategy for Russia leaving Syria?  Nyetyu; they don’t much intend to leave. 
..  ..  .. 
Washington and its partners can expect Putin to pursue an increasingly aggressive regional policy that depends on confrontation with the West as the basis for domestic legitimacy.
On March 18, Russia will hold a presidential "election," and as usual the result is predetermined: Vladimir Putin will win another term while avoiding all debates, facing no real challengers, and periodically staging shirtless campaign photo-ops. Yet even a faux election is important to watch given the consequences it may hold for Russia's growing involvement in the Middle East. While Putin is assured a victory, the Kremlin appears concerned about its longer-term political future, leading it to rely more on military mobilization and anti-Westernism to bolster its domestic legitimacy and slide back to its authoritarian past. This means the Middle East will likely remain an arena for competing with the West and expanding Russian influence.
LEGITIMACY AND TURNOUT    Putin has now been in power longer than Leonid Brezhnev, and an entire generation has grown up knowing only him as their leader. Protest activity—especially outside major cities—continues despite government crackdowns. According to Muscovites, the quickest way to get the authorities to remove snow from the capital's streets this year was to decorate drifts with the name of Alexei Navalny, the anti-corruption figure who could have posed a real challenge to Putin at the ballot box but was barred from running.
The appearance of legitimacy is very important for the Kremlin, and low voter turnout would make the government look bad. In September 2016, less than half of eligible voters participated in the parliamentary elections, in many ways a test run for the presidential vote. Still, Putin's United Russia party gained a legislative supermajority, enough to change the constitution. As a result, Putin may be able to remain in power after his next six-year term by changing the country's charter instead of ruling through a Medvedev-style proxy.
STALINIST AND SOVIET SYMBOLS     Although the revival of Stalinism and Soviet imagery has been a feature of Putin's rule since the beginning, the trend has been growing in recent years. In May 2014, two months after annexing Crimea from Ukraine, Putin signed a vaguely worded law that criminalized any criticism of Soviet actions in World War II, which implicitly includes Joseph Stalin's Great Terror and his pact with Adolf Hitler. Likewise, Communist Party presidential candidate Pavel Grudinin has publicly pledged loyalty to Stalin. And in January, the Ministry of Culture banned Armando Iannucci's satirical film The Death of Stalin, calling it "extremist" and a "provocation."
WARTIME MOBILIZATION     For years now, the Kremlin has been emphasizing defense issues and invoking the traditional narrative of Russia as a fortress besieged by enemies, the United States in particular. Similarly, observers increasingly refer to Putin as a "wartime president." In a country with a deteriorating economy, growing poverty, and little government interest in development, the Kremlin does not have much else to offer. Wartime rhetoric also tends to put citizens in a mindset of sacrifice.
Currently, Russia spends about a third of its budget on defense, and the Kremlin has called for more. In November, Putin authorized a $324 billion state armament program for 2018-2027, noting that "the ability of the economy to rapidly increase the volume of defense products and services at the right time is one of the most important conditions for ensuring the military security of the state." He added that all enterprises, state and private, should be prepared in this regard, prompting a flurry of domestic commentary and concern about the prospect of major war.
Similarly, during his annual state of the nation address on March 1—his last major speech before the election—Putin bragged about the supposedly "invincible" nuclear-powered intercontinental cruise missiles Russia is developing. His previous speeches had never focused on nuclear issues in such detail, nor contained such belligerent and paranoid statements. Fundamentally, however, the address offered nothing new, and some Russian analysts speculated that his aggressive rhetoric toward the West was also a plea for international relevance (i.e., "talk to Russia, or else"). This more than anything else will remain the hallmark of his approach to foreign policy, albeit with extra intensity going forward. Among Putin's chief aims is restoring the image of Russia's greatness, and for that he needs a great enemy.
SYRIA AND IRAN     Where does all this leave the Middle East? The region no longer receives much attention in the Russian press, and Putin mentioned it directly only once in his March 1 address, stating, "The operation in Syria has proved the increased capabilities of the Russian Armed Forces." Notably, he emphasized the campaign's training benefits rather than any supposed efficacy in killing "terrorists" in Syria before they come to Russia—the Kremlin's justification for intervening there in the first place.
Yet while Moscow has been signaling a desire to untangle itself from Syria for some time, its new military presence in the country remains too important to lose from a geostrategic perspective. Moreover, Russia has made significant investments in Syria's energy infrastructure and natural resources during the war—in early 2017, the company Evro Polis reportedly signed an energy agreement with Damascus, while Stroytransgaz inked a deal on phosphate mining.
On the government-to-government level, Russian energy minister Alexander Novak reportedly signed a cooperation agreement with Syria earlier this month. And last September, Damascus pledged to buy three million tons of wheat from Russia over the next three years. The two countries have also reportedly held discussions about rebuilding Syria's telecommunications infrastructure. Therefore, in the absence of other alternatives, Moscow is well positioned to control the direction of Syria's reconstruction even if it lacks the necessary investment funds. At the same time, Russia was able to institutionalize a Syria consultation mechanism with Turkey and Iran despite the failed peace talks in Astana and Sochi, creating the basis for a regional diplomatic process that excludes the United States.
As for Moscow's partnership with Tehran, it shows no signs of abating in the medium term. Differences and distrust persist, but so far the two governments have managed to put them aside in favor of their common goal: reducing American influence in the region. Some Russian and Iranian analysts privately note that the relationship may focus more on expanding cooperation this year, including in the economic realm. Russian oil companies are reportedly discussing contracts that would allow them to work on Iranian oil fields. It remains to be seen whether wider bilateral economic cooperation will truly grow from such initiatives, but political cooperation remains important in of itself.
By essentially enabling Tehran's activities in the Levant, including hegemonic goals that go beyond Moscow's, Russia risks alienating other regional actors if they attribute Iranian success to Russian support. At the same time, Moscow has been presenting itself as an alternative to Iran in the region, creating the perception that its connections with Tehran give it leverage over the Islamic Republic. Ultimately, the impact of Russian-Iranian cooperation in the Middle East may depend on whether they continue to put their differences aside, or resolve them, in favor of their common anti-Western interests.
BROADER REGIONAL SWAY     Russia's regional military position is growing beyond Syria and Iraq as well, particularly in the air defense realm. Power projection and arms sales will remain important to Moscow after the election, as both sources of financial gain and a means of wielding influence.
Regional port access is another important aspect to watch. Building new ports is expensive, but Moscow could secure berthing rights in places such as Libya to avoid such costs. Putin might also insert himself as a powerbroker in Libya, gaining the international attention he craves by mediating between Gen. Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army in the east and the internationally recognized Government of National Accord in Tripoli. In December, only a day after Putin declared another "withdrawal" from Syria, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov announced that Moscow sought a role in ending the Libyan conflict. Indeed, Western governments need to keep an eye on Russia's quiet but steady expansion into all of North Africa.
Moscow's influence in the Persian Gulf and attempts to insert itself in the Israeli-Palestinian dispute bear watching as well. These and other regional plans may not all pan out, but in the absence of a coherent Western strategy toward Russia or the reestablishment of American leadership in the region, there is nothing to curb Putin's efforts and the long-term instability they would bring. Following the election, Moscow will likely treat the Middle East even more as a privileged sphere of influence similar to the post-Soviet space, with an increasingly aggressive, expansionist, and anti-Western posture all but assured.
 
 
Hour Three
Thursday 15 March 2018 / Hour 3, Block A: Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re: 
Thursday 15 March 2018 / Hour 3, Block B:  Liz Peek, Fiscal Times and Fox News, in re: 
Thursday 15 March 2018 / Hour 3, Block C:  Barry Strauss, The Death of Caesar
Thursday 15 March 2018 / Hour 3, Block D:  Barry Strauss, The Death of Caesar
 
Hour Four
Thursday 15 March 2018 / Hour 4, Block A:  Sebastian Gorka, Fox News, in re:  Personnel changes at he White House. Tillerson exits.  He surprisingly was uncomfortable speaking to the American people.  He was said to be working with Europeans to persuade Pres Trump to change policies [oops].  Mike Pompeo, from Wichita, Harvard grad and first in his class at West Point, enters as State Secretary.  State Dept has a culture of America Last – other cultures are prized above that of the United States. Pompeo is excellent to cure that. He’s also exceptionally well prepared to see what Russia is doing.  “Substrategic threats such as Russia.”  North Korea:  Pompeo is a pragmatist, a realist. We go in with our eyes wide open He knows that the first requirement in dealing with a dictatorship is: don't trust it. Anent DPRK: 1. No more rocket tests.  2. No more nuclear tests. 
Extract in today’s New York Post: In 2009, the son of the  VP and the stepson of the Secy of State created an investment fund to get into bed with China in a billion-dollar fund, involved in transferring essential security information, incl military, to China.  Astounding.
Larry Kudlow as Chairman of Council of Economic Advisors: he‘s indebted to no one and will speak his mind. He gets results. 
Thursday 15 March 2018 / Hour 4, Block B: Sebastian Gorka, Fox News, in re:  US currently is at war in seven countries (Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Somalia, Niger, Yemen. Libya).  Is the Trump Adm doing an adequate job of keeping Americans informed?  Radical diminution of ISIS, . . .  .  But yes, we need better strategic communications.  . . . The poisoning of the Russian former spy who’s now a UK citizen, and his daughter, by a nerve agent that appears to be connected to Russia.  China, Iran, North Korea, are the most important problems, but the casual arrogance of that poisoning [is reminiscent of the brutality of the Soviet Union for seventy years]. 
Thursday 15 March 2018 / Hour 4, Block C: Gene Marks, Washington Post, in re: Small Business America.  Springtime of 2018:  optimism.  However, inventories are continuing to rise.  Ergo, they’re not being sold.  Also, retail sales in Feb fell.  Red Stag and another firm found that 28% of holiday season sales were returned.  Gives one pause. 
Port traffic.  Shipping down?  Carefully-restricted tariffs.  An AI robot can give an interview?  Glass Door says 38% of Americans will be looking for a new job in the coming year.  Large firms and start-ups are relying on artificial intelligence robots to interview potential employees. Scan resumes and rely on video for recruiters to speed up the process. Alexa —we call her you-know-who — is in a business meeting  and . . .   can reserve a conference room, check other people’s calendars; notify everyone; organize the lighting and screen, and dial participants, and then send out summaries.   Russian technology and developers, not hacking into our stuff, have created Embryo 3D, to scan pregnancy, use ultrasound to crate a picture of the infant/foetus.
Thursday 15 March 2018 / Hour 4, Block D:  Gene Marks, Washington Post, in re:  In London, a McDonald’s where last year there were 71 reports of criminality among a rowdy clientele.  The manager began to play Beethoven ad Bach as background music, and there are now almost no reports of bad behavior.  Mine your own cryptocurrencies:  someone at Florida State, Dept of Citrus [whazzat?], used university servers to mine; was fired.  A German bakery outside of Munich hires only grandparents to create those treats we all recall with affection: pies just as Grandmother used to make them; cakes just like my great-aunt’s. 
 
A French baker who owns his own bakery was fined €3,000 for working too hard: apparently, in France it's illegal to work seven days in a row.   A fitness shop in Colorado combining infused marijuana with fitness program.
..  ..  ..