Thursday 14 April 2016
Photo, left: Somaliland, in the Horn of Afirca, on the Gulf of Aden
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-hosts: Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal Editorial Board & host of Opinion Journal on WSJ Video. Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents.
Hour One
Thursday 14 April 2016 / Hour 1, Block A: George Pataki, 53d Governor of New York; in re: Has just endorsed John Kasich, governor of Ohio, on the grounds that he can win over Mrs Clinton and also will do an excellent job of governing. Can win in suburban districts —Westchester and Rockland; and many CDs in the city and Upstate. How would a Pres Kasich deal with the still-existing Tammany Hall in New York? -- well and strongly. Under the exceptionally competent NYPD New York is the safest city in America – yet Washington has assigned a monitor to the NYPD. . . . “Is Donald Trump a Republican?” “He’s anything he decides to be just then.”
Thursday 14 April 2016 / Hour 1, Block B: Francis Rose, NationalDefenseWeek.com and francisrose.com, in re: David Houlihan, MD, prescribed huge numbers of drugs to vets; was fired, then on leave, and the disciplinary review board is reviewing his firing. The acting director of the hospital send out a memo: If you see a reporter on the hospital grounds, have the cops remove them. Hunh? / Choice program: vets more than 40 mi from a VA healthcare station may go to wherever they can get to and the VA will reimburse. Lots of people using it; the VA says it's running out of money. / SecDef Ash Carter wants to shift personnel among Joint Chiefs.
House Appropriators See Financial Ills for VA Health Program. The Department of Veterans Affairs has faced criticism for years in its provision of health care to the nation's veterans, and a report out Tuesday from the House Appropriations Committee says the problems continue, reports CQ's Kellie Mejdrich. The report suggests that provision of health care outside VA facilities could present a financial hurdle in the years ahead. Lawmakers have been vocal in budget hearings about their disdain for the VA’s rollout of the Veterans Choice Program, which Congress put in place in 2014 with the goal of increasing medical care for veterans among private providers. But the report foreshadows an increasing financial burden. “The implementation of the Choice program has been rocky,” it says.
VA ‘Candy Man’ May Keep His Job Despite No Medical License “Candy Man” Department of Veterans Affairs Dr. David Houlihan, who drugged veterans with massive and dangerous combinations of painkillers, may keep his job and VA has instructed employees to call the police on any reporters who enter the hospital to keep them from finding that out. VA said the Tomah, Wisconsin hospital’s chief of staff was fired Nov. 9 after being on paid leave for almost a full year.
But he is not actually gone. In the VA’s union-dominated environment, where people are routinely reinstated with back pay, an entire week will be dedicated to appeals from the disgraced doctor, insisting he should remain on the taxpayers’ payroll — even though he has been stripped of his medical license and couldn’t possibly do the job. A Disciplinary Review Board will consider his appeal between April 11 to April 15. Victoria Brahm, the hospital’s acting director, wrote on Friday that all employees should call the police on any news reporters who are at the hospital that week. “[I]f you see members of the media on campus not being escorted by Matthew Gowan, Tomah VAMC Public Affairs Officer, please contact the VA Police Department,” she wrote in a message to all hospital employees, obtained by The Daily Caller News Foundation. VA has claimed that it is very easy to fire doctors, in order to make the argument that administrative personnel should be given massive pay raises to the level of doctors, with the trade-off being that they are forgoing job security.
If Houlihan can’t easily be exorcised from the VA, it is doubtful that anyone can. He cannot even practice medicine because his license has been suspended by the state. The state licensing board said it was obvious he is “downright dangerous.” At the encouragement of their union, the American Federation of Government Employees, VA employees who are revealed to have taken part in astonishing misconduct will do almost anything to avoid trying to seek employment in the private sector. Phoenix hospital director Sharon Helman is suing to get her job back even after she has been convicted of a felony for her corrupt conduct at work. They are often successful. A nurse’s assistant has been on paid leave for a year as he awaits a trial for manslaughter in the beating death of a veteran, and the VA said it will impose no discipline for the beating. The Center for Investigative Reporting revealed how astonishingly out-of-the-norm Houlihan’s use of opiates is. Oxycodone pills prescribed annually went from 100,000 to 700,000 after he was hired. http://dailycaller.com/2016/04/08/va-candy-man-may-keep-his-job-despite-no-medical-license/
Thursday 14 April 2016 / Hour 1, Block C: Richard A Epstein, Hoover Institution, Chicago Law, NYU Law, in re: One of the most closely-watched cases before the Supreme Court this term is United States v. Texas, the immigration case that is scheduled to be argued on April 18. The Supreme Court surprised most observers when it asked the parties in that case to address a question they did not raise in their briefs: whether President Obama’s “Deferred Action for Parents of Americans” (DAPA) order violates the “Take Care Clause” of Article II of the Constitution. The Take Care Clause has never before been enforced by the Court and most people have probably never heard of it. Found in Article II of the Constitution, it is composed of only nine words: the president “shall take care that the laws be faithfully executed.” But an understanding of those nine words requires an appreciation of their roots in English history . . . http://www.hoover.org/research/obamas-unconstitutional-immigration-order (1 of 2)
Thursday 14 April 2016 / Hour 1, Block D: Richard A Epstein, Hoover Institution, Chicago Law, NYU Law, in re: The Take Care Clause – see 1806 – “If we give the president this prerogative power it would clothe [him with the powers of the Congress].
One of the most closely-watched cases before the Supreme Court this term is United States v. Texas, the immigration case that is scheduled to be argued on April 18. The Supreme Court surprised most observers when it asked the parties in that case to address a question they did not raise in their briefs: whether President Obama’s “Deferred Action for Parents of Americans” (DAPA) order violates the “Take Care Clause” of Article II of the Constitution. The Take Care Clause has never before been enforced by the Court and most people have probably never heard of it. Found in Article II of the Constitution, it is composed of only nine words: the president “shall take care that the laws be faithfully executed.” But an understanding of those nine words requires an appreciation of their roots in English history . . . http://www.hoover.org/research/obamas-unconstitutional-immigration-order (2 of 2)
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
• U.S. Frowns on New Iran Sanctions by Congress after Missile Test - Kambiz Foroohar
Adam Szubin, Acting Undersecretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, argued Wednesday against imposing new legislative sanctions on Iran after its ballistic missile tests last month. "New mandatory non-nuclear sanctions legislation would needlessly risk undermining our unity with international partners," he said. The U.S. already has the ability to impose new sanctions on individuals and entities for ballistic missile violations, Szubin noted. The U.S. won't provide Iran access to the U.S. financial system, he added. (Bloomberg)
• What Is Preventing International Companies from Doing Business with Iran Again? - Dominic Dudley
There are a number of factors still limiting international investment in Iran. International companies need to be able to move money in and out of the country, but some large international banks that were caught evading sanctions in the past remain wary. There are still several groups of sanctions that remain in place, designed to punish the country for human rights abuses and terrorist financing. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC), still firmly under international sanctions, has tentacles that reach into almost every economic sector. It is extremely difficult for an international company to be sure that it is not doing business with the IRGC. (Forbes)
• Photos Show How Brussels Terror Originated with ISIS in Syria - Rukmini Callimachi
The latest issue of Dabiq, the Islamic State's slick online magazine, published on Wednesday, includes an image of Najim Laachraoui, who was last seen wheeling a suitcase bomb into the Brussels airport. He is wearing military fatigues and standing next to a man with a bloody knife, suggesting they had just beheaded a captive. The two men's uniforms exactly match those worn by the Paris attackers last year, as shown in another set of photographs shot somewhere in Syria or Iraq. (New York Times)
News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
• U.S. Reiterates Opposition to One-Sided UN Security Council Action Against Israel - Michael Wilner and Herb Keinon
State Department spokesman Mark Toner, asked Tuesday about possible U.S. support for UN Security Council action on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, replied, "I can firmly shut that door....Our position hasn't changed in terms of action on this issue at the UN Security Council...[and the U.S. is] opposed to it."
Edgar Vasquez, an official at the U.S. Mission to the UN, told the Jerusalem Post on Wednesday: "We continue to oppose one-sided resolutions that delegitimize Israel or undermine its security."
Last week a bipartisan group of congressmen sent a letter to President Obama urging him "to continue to insist that it is only at the negotiating table - and not at the UN - that the parties can resolve their complicated differences. Your continued commitment to longstanding U.S. policy to veto one-sided UN Security Council resolutions remains fundamentally critical." (Jerusalem Post-U.S. State Department)
• Israel Foils Recent Hamas Terror Plots - Yaakov Lappin
Israeli security forces have quietly foiled a large number of Hamas mass-casualty terrorism plots in the West Bank recently, often at a very advanced stage of preparations, a senior IDF source disclosed on Wednesday. "We have seen, in recent months, many attempts by organizations to carry out terrorist attacks," the officer said. "What characterizes these cells is funding by organizations and a desire to carry out a 'quality attack.'" (Jerusalem Post)
• Israel: Hamas Is the Source of Gaza's Economic Woes - Judah Ari Gross
Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Gilad, director of the Israel Defense Ministry's Political-Military Affairs Bureau, told a conference Wednesday that economic development is "not the fundamental solution" to Gaza's problems and that as long as Hamas rules Gaza, there will not be peace. Gilad brushed off assertions that a port or lightened security measures would have an impact. "I'm sorry to give you a harsh picture, but that's what it is," he said. (Times of Israel)
Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
• Does the Palestinian Leadership Want Peace with Israel? - Alan Baker
In all likelihood, the international community is confused and fatigued by the unending Palestinian attempts to gain attention, faced as it is with the massive threats of ISIS terror, the ongoing war in Syria, tension between Russia and Ukraine and other major crises.
It is high time that the Palestinian leadership put its house in order, and decide whether they want peace with Israel or constant, unending tension and violence. It is also high time that the Palestinian leadership chooses to invest the considerable funding it receives to serve the needs and interests of the Palestinian public rather than wasting funds on senseless political and public relations exercises and expensive travel for the sole purpose of perpetuating conflict and Palestinian victimhood. The writer served as legal adviser and deputy director-general of Israel's Ministry of Foreign Affairs. (Jerusalem Post)
• Taking Sides in the War within Islam - Bernard-Henri Levy
Appeasement of violent radicalism only encourages more of the same. We must acknowledge that two Islams are locked in a fight to the death, and that because the battlefield is the planet and the war threatens values that the West embraces, the fight is not solely the Muslims' affair.
We must aid, encourage, and ideologically arm Muslims who reject the Islam of hate in favor of an Islam respectful of women, their faces, and their rights, as well as of human rights in general. Genuine anti-racists, anti-imperialists, and believers in republican democracy must take the side of the Islam of moderation and peace in its war against the criminal Islam of the Salafists. The writer is a French public intellectual, media personality, and author. (Project Syndicate)
• Israel on a Charm Offensive to African Countries - Kevin Kelley
Ten African ambassadors to the U.S. attended a presentation in Washington on March 22 by Nitzan Nuriel, former head of Israel's counter-terrorism operations, who suggested that "African countries could do more - including in partnership with Israel - to combat the threat" of terrorism. The gathering was the latest indication of a strengthening of ties between many sub-Saharan nations and the Jewish state, particularly in the security realm. In July, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to travel to Kenya and Uganda.
Some international affairs analysts in Washington suggest that African countries' open embrace of Israel could signal an important diplomatic shift. The rubric of African solidarity with the Palestinian cause may no longer be relevant, they say. African countries "see there's a lot Israel can offer them that the Arab countries cannot offer," says Joshua Meservey, an Africa specialist at the Heritage Foundation in Washington. (The East African-Kenya)
See also Group Urges Africa to Build Strong Partnership with Israel
The Africa-Israel Initiative (AII) has challenged African governments to align themselves with the nation of Israel in order to benefit from Israel's technology and industry. The AII was launched in Ghana in May 2014 to lobby for the survival of Israel and to help secure votes for Israel at the UN by African governments. (GhanaWeb)
Observations:
What Did Americans Know as the Holocaust Unfolded? Quite a Lot - Tara Bahrampour (Washington Post)
• History Unfolded is an initiative of the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum, which is using crowdsourcing to scour newspapers across the country for articles that ran between 1933 and 1945 on the plight of Europe's Jews.
• Some were shocked to see how much news had been printed on the Holocaust. "My prevailing notion about this period in time was that a lot of what had happened with the Nazis during the '30s and '40s was not that well-known," said Sandi Auerbach, 62, a retired IBM financial manager who is a member of the museum and has contributed more than two dozen articles to the project.
• "I am amazed, quite frankly, at the coverage that there was in a lot of different papers," Auerbach said. "For example, in 1933 there was a huge rally in Madison Square Garden with 20,000 people in attendance to protest the persecution of Jews in Germany." Contributors say they have been struck by detailed accounts of the Nazis' persecution and slaughter of Jews.
• Tayte Patton, 17, whose English class in Lexington, Ky., is participating, said he was shocked at the U.S.'s inaction. "I never knew that we didn't want to let Jews into the country," he said. "I always thought that we would let anyone in, that we would be a refuge for the Jews."
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Hour Two
Thursday 14 April 2016 / Hour 2, Block A: Mike Singh, Washington Institute, in re: Syria. Se JPost video of a drone said to have created an explosion within Syria, and vid of Iranian soldiers’ retreating PDQ. Attributed to al Nusrah? Also Iraqi Sh’ia militia; Iranians work by proxy. The so-called Artesh [regular ground] forces. . . . Main Russian contribution in Syria; air power. . . . Hard to judge morale of Syrian army; previous reports suggest that in Assad’s heartland, the brutality of the war was disheartening. Russia and Syria now speak of moving on to Raqqa, which would be a major coup, although militarily difficult. Assad’s forces have never been able to fight in several places at once. Delivery/nondelivery of S300 by Russia to Iran? Perhaps part of the system arrived; it's not cutting-edge – maybe 1990 technology. Lot of concern form Israel, Gulfies, even the US; but if it’s not new tech, less worry. . . . Syria saga continues without too much hope in sight. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/weeks-after-pullout-from-syria-russian-military-is-as-busy-as-ever/2016/04/11/d150a004-fd77-11e5-a569-2c9e819c14e4_story.html ; http://www.wsj.com/articles/syrians-head-to-polls-for-parliamentary-elections-1460533105 ; http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Iran-News/Irans-Special-Forces-reportedly-suffering-heavy-losses-in-Syria-451090 ; http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/irans-army-suffers-its-first-casualties-in-syria ; http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/the-alawites-in-syrian-society-loud-silence-in-a-declaration-of-identity-re
Michael Singh is the Lane-Swig Senior Fellow and managing director at The Washington Institute and a former senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council. During his tenure at the White House from 2005 to 2008, Mr. Singh was responsible for devising and coordinating U.S. national security policy toward the region stretching from Morocco to Iran, with a particular emphasis on Iran’s nuclear and regional activities, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Syria, and security cooperation in the broader Middle East. Previously, Mr. Singh served as special assistant to secretaries of state Condoleezza Rice and Colin Powell and at the U.S. embassy in Tel Aviv.
Thursday 14 April 2016 / Hour 2, Block B: Congressman Ted Deutch (FL-21: GOP), in re: Iran, ISIS, peace talks. The predator state of Iran continues to provoke and generate fear. One way the Supreme Leader and his gang do this is to continue to fire ballistic missiles even though it's expressly forbidden to do this. Congress chooses to add additional sanctions for this. The Obama Adm discourages this. We’ve been told ab initio that the deal was limited only to the nuke program and the US would use all its weight against missile tests; but after one after another missile test, the White House issued a most perplexing statement that the US instead needs to fret about how Europeans feel about doing business with Iran. UN SC Res 2231: all the intl components of the deal, incl a ban on ballistic missile tests. Then Iran issued a statement saying that any additl sanctions would be seen as a violation. It's not that Iran is playing anyone – were they doing that they’d abide by the letter of the deal to reap benefits and not risk addtl sanctions. “Our only option now is for Congress to place sanctions on Iran,” but Rep Deutch declines to criticize the WH.
Secretary of State John Kerry’s recent call for a “new arrangement” with Tehran to curb its ballistic missile program constitutes an admission that the U.N. resolution tied to the July 2015 nuclear deal has failed to stem Iran’s misbehavior. Rather than offer new concessions if Iran halts its missile launches, the White House should impose stronger economic sanctions aimed at compelling Iran’s compliance with longstanding international demands
http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/The-indecisive-and-confusing-state-of-the-Palestinian-leadership-451019 ; http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/news/Israel-on-a-charm-offensive-to-African-countries-/-/2558/3156556/-/view/printVersion/-/c2p9gx/-/index.html ; http://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/NewsArchive/AII-urges-Africa-to-build-strong-partnership-with-Israel-430572# ; http://jcpa.org/article/whitewashing-palestine-eliminate-israel-case-one-state-advocates/http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Politics-And-Diplomacy/Is-Obama-planning-his-revenge-on-Netanyahu-451162 ; https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/the-islamic-state-extremism-and-the-spread-of-transnational-terrorism ; http://www.foreignpolicyi.org/content/fpi-bulletin-kerry-admits-iran-deal-not-working#sthash.RNSbZVha.dpuf
Congressman Ted Deutch, 49, represents Florida's 21st district. Now serving his fourth term in the 114th Congress, he is a member of the House Judiciary Committee, the House Ethics Committee, and the House Foreign Affairs Committee, on which he serves as Ranking Democrat on the Middle East and North Africa Subcommittee. Ted has been deeply engaged in Middle East issues for several years, first gaining national recognition during his time in the Florida State Senate for passing the first law in the country divesting public pension funds from Iran. Since arriving in Congress, several of Ted's legislative initiatives have earned bipartisan support, including the Iran Transparency and Accountability Act and the Iran Human Rights and Democracy Promotion Act, both of which were incorporated in to the Iran Threat Reduction Act and signed into law by the President Obama. In 2014, Ted introduced and passed the bipartisan U.S.-Israel Strategic Partnership Act to enhance U.S. cooperation with Israel in areas like agriculture, energy, security, and other areas. Ted is also a passionate advocate for boosting foreign aid, promoting global health, and protecting human rights abroad.
Thursday 14 April 2016 / Hour 2, Block C: Lawrence Franklin, ex-DoD; in re: Iran. Ambiguous reports about the Iranian economy – Euro banks are hesitant to do bz with Iran? How’s the IRGC economy? About one-third of the economy is controlled by it; the big-ticket items go to the deep state, composed of unelected theocratic instrument (Council of Guardians, et al.) The Majlis sent a shot over Rouhani’s bow by discontinuing ___ grants to the poorest Iranians, which is he hardliner’s base. Iran’s real problem is the kitchen budget, which is deteriorating. . . A lot of automobile deals will be made, but not US clearance of bank transfers, which is Iran is complaining about: “a grand conspiracy.” On last 21 March, Iranian New Year, Khamenei said “This will be the year for Economic Resistance.” Warned Rouhani not to extend past what he’d achieved; and ___ used even more baleful language: If you get too close to the West you’ll see a revolution. Rouhani has zero control over missiles, their dvpt and tests. The deep states makes he decisions. It's a theocratic junta of Iraq War vets, Security Apparat (IRGC & Quds Force). In Iraq, I was amazed at how public Solomeini was p unusual for a non-mullah to be that prominent. This is more of a fascist regime than a standard theocracy. Who controls the $100 bil coming in? It’ll all go to the IRGC-controlled Associations: they control oil, gas, construction, all the big-item products. No benefit to the people. They benefit by the veneer of revolutionary Islam and the legacy of Khomeini; they do not want another leader like Khomeini – they want someone gray and invisible like Khamenei. Their goal is to keep the boat afloat. The “new class” (nomenklatura, as the Russians say). (The Caucasian nation of Georgia has the largest Persian library in the world.) The current Iranian tyrants see themselves as the Shia standard-bearer. They've learned population control from North Korea and China; are pretty stable. To boot, Iran now requires that a company buy in if it wants a contract – which Peugeot has done: invested 50%. . . As for the missiles: we need to be aware of their testing multiple independent targeted vehicles/ ICBM: MIRVs. They’ll continue to hold relations with North Korean missile dvpt.
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/7812/iran-khamenei-economy ; http://fuelfix.com/blog/2016/04/11/irans-daily-oil-exports-surge-by-600000-barrels-as-opec-meeting-looms/ ; http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/7579/iran-deep-state ; http://presstv.ir/Detail/2016/04/08/459709/Iran-defense-missiles-Kerry-Jazayeri/ ; https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/jl0322.aspx ; http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-13/u-s-argues-against-more-iranian-sanctions-after-missile-tests ; http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/may-clifford-d-can-america-change-course/
Franklin is the former USAF Reserve Colonel Military Attaché to the U.S. Embassy in Israel. He also was the Iran Desk Officer in the Office of the Secretary of the Defense under Donald Rumsfeld. Franklin's doctorate is in Asian Studies. During the Cold War, Dr. Franklin served as the Defense Intelligence Agency's Senior Political-Military Analyst in support of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. He has executed missions in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan and is well-traveled throughout the Middle East with many tours of duty in Israel.
Thursday 14 April 2016 / Hour 2, Block D: Simon Henderson, Washington Institute, in re: GCC Summit, Saudi/Egyptian relations. After the Middle East in the hands of stable states, such as Egypt, Jordan, Israel: a meeting coming up that might be a glimpse of the future. On 21 April, Pres Obama goes to a mtg of the Gulf Cooperation Council. What does he want from them and they from him? Last ear, GCC leaders went to Camp David to be persuaded by Pres Obama that he forthcoming Iran deal would be good . . . I suspect he may not much be looking forward, but off he goes. They'll say that Iran is up to its usual mischief; the US president has a big favor to ask: he wants legitimacy in fighting ISIS – best will be to have a group of Islamic states join him in the fight, most logical being the GCC. He once referred to “free riders” – covered the GCC states. He must hope that the Arab leaders don't bother to read – esp 19,000-word pieces by Jeffrey Goldberg in the Atlantic. The level of insult in that article was extraordinary – esp vs Saudi Arabia (Are they an ally or not?) and the notion that Saudis and Iran should somehow share influence in the Middle East - as though Iran isn't malign and one can throw away centuries of hostility? Have the Levantine states decided to go on their own, ignore the 45th US president? They’ve given up on this president, but not yet on the US. The fact that Egypt handed over two tiny islands to the Saudis is important. Administratively, Egypt will keep some solders on the island.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/egypts-president-defends-saudi-island-deal-1460557988?cb=logged0.7018790707078535 ; http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/11/world/middleeast/egypt-gives-saudi-arabia-2-islands-in-a-show-of-gratitude.html?_r=0 ; http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/199238/Business/Economy/Breakdown-of-EgyptSaudi-financial-deals,-future-i ; http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Egypt-Saudi-maritime-border-deal-requires-change-to-peace-treaty-with-Israel-450855 ; http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContentPrint/3/0/199238/Business/0/Breakdown-of-EgyptSaudi-financial-deals,-future-in.aspx ; http://af.reuters.com/article/idAFL2N17F16Y?sp=true
Simon Henderson is the Baker Fellow and director of the Gulf and Energy Policy Program at The Washington Institute, specializing in energy matters and the conservative Arab states of the Persian Gulf. A former journalist with Financial Times, Mr. Henderson has also worked as a consultant advising corporations and governments on the Persian Gulf. He became an associate of the Institute in 1999 and joined the staff in 2006. He started his career with the British Broadcasting Corporation before joining the Financial Times. His experience includes serving as a foreign correspondent in Pakistan in 1977-78, and reported from Iran during the 1979 Islamic revolution and seizure of the U.S. embassy. In 1987, Mr. Henderson received a U.S. International Visitors Grant, and in 1990 was awarded the Dayan Fellowship at Tel Aviv University. He was a visiting fellow at The Washington Institute in 1993 and 2000.
Hour Three
Thursday 14 April 2016 / Hour 3, Block A: Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of President, in re: to Sharm el Sheikh and the two islands that Egypt has now returned to Saudi: hugely important, with spillover effect at GCC mtg next week. So significant because they control entry to Gulf of Aqaba and the Port of Eilat. Six-day War came about really because of closure; US promised to hold it open and did not. Saudis have not accepted to recognize the new deal, which will have to be ratified by the Knesset. Seen as a back door to Saudi-Israeli ties. $22 bil in the next five years, plus billion in dvpt loans and $120 mil in loans to renovate an Egyptian hospital. US troops in Sinai: White House saying it wants to reduce its presence right now, replace with sensors. / Cameras on temple Mount? Proposal to install vid cameras to prove that there’s no violation there – a Jordanian proposal that the PA has refused. Lies and incitement about the Temple Mont: Abbas trying to start fresh incitement. Abbas’s own brother left Qatar to be treated for his cancer in an Israeli hospital! Dome drones; Israel has dvpd a system w radar their sponsors – Lebanon, Jordan, Syria, Saudis – no one wants to give money to them. Gaza’s only power plant because they have no oil-Israel ships in a lot of oil, the PA put a tax on it, Hamas refused to pay, and so there’s no oil for the power plant. / In the US presidential-campaign talks, a bogus assertion that Syria is not a problem of the US: one of the Brussels attackers, at he airport gates the three men were to go to Israeli, British and US airlines, and kill all the nationals there. They were all trained in Raqqa. A failed state becomes the breeding-ground for mass-murder. Cutthroat young men – “We can murder our compatriots.”
Thursday 14 April 2016 / Hour 3, Block B: Yossi Kuperwasser, Jerusalem Center, in re: Syria, Palestinians, Israel’s north. In Syria near the Lebanese and Israeli borders, Druse communities that were under pressure a few months ago in the Golan. They’re now pretty stable. One village on slopes of M Hermon, Hader(?), but they can protect themselves and are guaranteed some sort of security, rest are in the Druse mountains, farther east; were close to ISISI successes in Palmyra but now that ISIS has left that city things are better. By and large are fairly safe; Israel is attuned to Druse concerns but no need to express this commitment. Bigger concerns in Syria: continuing influx of weapons from Iran to Hezbollah. The growing Iranian presence, incl bldg. bases along the Israeli border. Most: because of Iranian nuke deal, Syrians believe that the West has given up on pragmatism, no future for pragmatists in Syria, engendering a large outmigration. Syria is no longer Syria, but an area controlled by Islamic radicals. Solution: Kurdish-Alawite-Sunni federation? At present the different groups do not want to live together. . . . Abbas incited the knife-stabbings; now has given order to stop as it becomes inconvenient for him. Same old guy.
http://jcpa.org/abu-mazens-attempt-to-blunt-the-knife-terror-wave/ ; http://jcpa.org/dying-for-allah/ ; http://jcpa.org/researcher/yossi-kuperwasser/ ; http://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/Senior-IDF-source-Security-forces-foiled-many-recent-mass-casualty-Hamas-terror-plots-451139 ; http://www.timesofisrael.com/hamas-not-economy-the-source-of-gazas-woes-amos-gilad-says/
Brig.-Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser is Director of the Project on Regional Middle East Developments at the Jerusalem Center. He was formerly Director General of the Israeli Ministry of Strategic Affairs and head of the Research Division of IDF Military Intelligence.
Thursday 14 April 2016 / Hour 3, Block C: Gregory R Copley, GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs, in re: Somaliland president has allowed horrible deterioration of economy and much corruption; however, new elections next year and clearly a fresh administration will be installed.
Somaliland Continues to Polarize as Military Opposes Political Moves Toward Rapprochement with Egypt Hargeisa: Sources within the Somaliland National Armed Forces (SNAF) indicate that the prospect of an agreement between the Somaliland Government and the Egyptian Government — in order to apply pressure on Ethiopia — has caused a profound split between the military and the fracturing government of Pres. Ahmed Mohamed Silanyo, who, in failing health, has already declared that he will not stand for re-election in March 2017. The main question is whether the Kulmiye Party of Pres. Silanyo will even credibly exist by the time the elections are held.
See: “Egypt Moves to Build New Ties with Somaliland and Somalia; Could Presage International Recognition of Hargeisa”, in Defense & Foreign Affairs Special Analysis, April 12, 2016.
The Somaliland military — and Somalilanders generally — remember the strong military support which Egypt gave to the Somalia Armed Forces in their attempt to suppress Somaliland during the rule of Somalian leader Muhammed Siad Barre (after he seized power in 1969), and also how Egypt has been the sole force behind the refusal of the African Union (and before that, the Organization for African Unity) to allow the recognition of Somaliland as a sovereign state.
Significantly, Somaliland fits absolutely the OAU and AU criteria for recognition as a sovereign state. It was independent and sovereign when Britain granted independence to the state in 1960, and only after that joined in union with the former Italian Somaliland to create the Union of Somalia. Thus most Somalilanders have seen the recent Egyptian overtures toward Hargeisa as extremely self-serving by Cairo, and aimed at putting pressure on neighboring Ethiopia, traditionally the only ally of Somaliland.
Somaliland bloggers — and Somaliland seems to have an exceptionally high per capita online presence — erupted after the visit by the Egyptian delegation, and after earlier movements of Egyptian troops into the port of Berbera in late 2015 to support the Saudi Arabian-led coalition fighting in Yemen (where Egyptian Ground Force units have been deployed in Aden, and elsewhere). Essentially, the theme of the blog opposition to the Government’s warm embrace of the visiting Egyptians has been to say that Egypt was soliciting not only the rights to use Berbera, but also to win the military support of Somaliland in a possible Egyptian conflict with Ethiopia “in 2017” (according to the blog traffic) over the possible Ethiopian diversion of Blue Nile waters to fill the proposed Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
Having Egyptian (or Saudi or UAE) control of the port of Berbera would deny that facility to Ethiopia, which is increasingly using Berbera as an entrepôt for its trade because of the growing congestion of the neighboring port of Djibouti. (1 of 2)
Thursday 14 April 2016 / Hour 3, Block D: Gregory R Copley, GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs, in re: . . . Egypt has been occupying the two islands for decades. Saudis invite Egypt to continue to administer them. Will permit the building of a new bridge! . . . Saudis have blown through much of the $800 bil of its sovereign oil fund and soon will be in deficit budgets for the first time, and its O&G reserves will be depleted in a decade – when 20 mil of its 29 mil population are migrant workers. Creating a single market with Egypt will be critical for its survival. Ethiopia is giving in because it can't build the dam; if it gets a stable govt it can work with Egypt- will lead to a large, harmonious marketplace - Red Med, incl the Horn of Africa.
Somaliland Continues to Polarize as Military Opposes Political Moves Toward Rapprochement with Egypt Hargeisa: Sources within the Somaliland National Armed Forces (SNAF) indicate that the prospect of an agreement between the Somaliland Government and the Egyptian Government — in order to apply pressure on Ethiopia — has caused a profound split between the military and the fracturing government of Pres. Ahmed Mohamed Silanyo, who, in failing health, has already declared that he will not stand for re-election in March 2017. The main question is whether the Kulmiye Party of Pres. Silanyo will even credibly exist by the time the elections are held.
See: “Egypt Moves to Build New Ties with Somaliland and Somalia; Could Presage International Recognition of Hargeisa”, in Defense & Foreign Affairs Special Analysis, April 12, 2016.
The Somaliland military — and Somalilanders generally — remember the strong military support which Egypt gave to the Somalia Armed Forces in their attempt to suppress Somaliland during the rule of Somalian leader Muhammed Siad Barre (after he seized power in 1969), and also how Egypt has been the sole force behind the refusal of the African Union (and before that, the Organization for African Unity) to allow the recognition of Somaliland as a sovereign state.
Significantly, Somaliland fits absolutely the OAU and AU criteria for recognition as a sovereign state. It was independent and sovereign when Britain granted independence to the state in 1960, and only after that joined in union with the former Italian Somaliland to create the Union of Somalia. Thus most Somalilanders have seen the recent Egyptian overtures toward Hargeisa as extremely self-serving by Cairo, and aimed at putting pressure on neighboring Ethiopia, traditionally the only ally of Somaliland.
Somaliland bloggers — and Somaliland seems to have an exceptionally high per capita online presence — erupted after the visit by the Egyptian delegation, and after earlier movements of Egyptian troops into the port of Berbera in late 2015 to support the Saudi Arabian-led coalition fighting in Yemen (where Egyptian Ground Force units have been deployed in Aden, and elsewhere). Essentially, the theme of the blog opposition to the Government’s warm embrace of the visiting Egyptians has been to say that Egypt was soliciting not only the rights to use Berbera, but also to win the military support of Somaliland in a possible Egyptian conflict with Ethiopia “in 2017” (according to the blog traffic) over the possible Ethiopian diversion of Blue Nile waters to fill the proposed Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
Having Egyptian (or Saudi or UAE) control of the port of Berbera would deny that facility to Ethiopia, which is increasingly using Berbera as an entrepôt for its trade because of the growing congestion of the neighboring port of Djibouti. (2 of 2)
Hour Four
Thursday 14 April 2016 / Hour 4, Block A: Matthew van Dyke, Sons of Liberty International, in re: "Phase one" of counter-ISIS campaign complete, says Col. Warren (Rudaw). The US initiated this campaign back in August 2014 when ISIS threatened Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan Region in Iraq. It consequently . . . Security forces expel ISIS from key district in Iraq's Anbar (1 of 2)
Thursday 14 April 2016 / Hour 4, Block B: Matthew van Dyke, Sons of Liberty International, in re: "Phase one" of counter-ISIS campaign complete, says Col. Warren (Rudaw). The US initiated this campaign back in August 2014 when ISIS threatened Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan Region in Iraq. It consequently . . . Security forces expel ISIS from key district in Iraq's Anbar (2 of 2)
Thursday 14 April 2016 / Hour 4, Block C: Robert Zimmerman, behind the black.com, in re: The history of Falcon 9’s recoverable first stage This is a beautiful short supercut of the history of SpaceX’s effort to develop a recoverable first stage. Hat tip Rand Simberg. / The video notes that it took less four years, from the first flight of Grasshopper to the first successful landing by a Falcon 9 first stage. This is the kind of pace I remember as a child in the America I grew up in. New ideas were fast and continuous, and things moved. I pray we are heading for a new renaissance where things will move again. (1 of 2)
Thursday 14 April 2016 / Hour 4, Block D: Robert Zimmerman, behind the black.com, in re: The history of Falcon 9’s recoverable first stage This is a beautiful short supercut of the history of SpaceX’s effort to develop a recoverable first stage. Hat tip Rand Simberg. / The video notes that it took less four years, from the first flight of Grasshopper to the first successful landing by a Falcon 9 first stage. This is the kind of pace I remember as a child in the America I grew up in. New ideas were fast and continuous, and things moved. I pray we are heading for a new renaissance where things will move again. (2 of 2)
.. .. ..