Thursday 12 November 2015
Photo, left: Operation Spider or Project Spider is a surveillance program by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to monitor Iranian internet users on social media such as Facebook.The operation was publicized in January 2015 with a statement by IRGC's "The Center for Investigation of Organized Crime". The program is said to be expanding to Instagram, Viber, and WhatsApp.
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-hosts: Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal Editorial Board & host of Opinion Journal on WSJ Video. Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents.
Hour One
Thursday 12 November 2015 / Hour 1, Block A: Simon Breheny, Institute of Public Affairs in Melbourne, director, Legal Rights Project, in re: Christmas Island processing center for detainees. My view is that it is appropriate to run centers – such as those currently being run by Serco – privately. I think there’s an efficiency dividend to the taxpayer. But I also think there needs to be oversight because at the end of the day it’s taxpayer funded. I doubt we’ll see further riots although it’s not surprising that they occur – it’s one of the only ways for this group of people to gain exposure and make their political case heard. The problems include the fact that the processing takes too long – this is not only a processing center but also as a way of deterring immigrants – so residents get very frustrated. The two major parties are in complete agreement on this policy.
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Alleged Australian detention camp rioters imprisoned Seven men blamed for involvement in unrest at remote Australian detention camp were flown to prison in Perth Seven men blamed for a riot that caused $7 million in damage to a remote Australian immigration detention camp had been flown to a mainland prison, an official said Thursday. A standoff between protesting detainees and officials at the Christmas Island detention camp in the Indian Ocean ended Tuesday after police used tear gas to stop more than a day of unrest that prompted guards to flee the facility and left parts of the compound badly damaged.
There were no serious injuries in the unrest that broke out Monday following the death of an asylum seeker who escaped from the facility [an Iranian Kurd. A previous death in an Australian detention center also was an Iranian, which raises the question of the remotely-possible involvement of the IRGC, which is widely and deeply active, even to a noticeable extent in Southeast Asia.]
The men — five New Zealanders, a Tongan and an Afghan —were flown overnight in a chartered jet 2,600 1,600 miles to a maximum security prison in the west coast city of Perth, Immigration Minister Peter Dutton told Sydney Radio 2GB. More would follow as the government was determined to bring the perpetrators of the damage to justice, he said. The detention camp was built to house asylum seekers who came to Australia by boat from Indonesia, which is 300 miles to the north. But asylum seekers were now outnumbered by criminals, including killers, armed robbers and pedophiles, Dutton said. Of the 199 detainees on Christmas Island, 113 were foreigners who had been released from Australian prisons and were fighting Australian efforts to deport them. Australia last year strengthened the power it has to cancel visas, making it mandatory to do so if a person has been sentenced to at least a year in jail.
Thursday 12 November 2015 / Hour 1, Block B: Edward Hayes, Esq., in re: homelessness in New York is finally acknowledged to be a problem in New York by Mayor DeBlasio. Homeless people, many distraught and quite mad, now routinely sleep on sidewalks, in the subway, wherever. Mayor and Commissioner Bratton say: "Discourage them by stopping giving them money." It's true that in public shelters they're either predators or victims. De Blasio's theory is that they're all unable to make a decision in life, esp whether or not to straighten up: I wholly disagree. Programs that help homeless people get jobs have been eviscerated by DeBlasio because it doesn't agree with his ideology. When they had to be moved on in the past, they either moved to shelters or got a job. Someone was shot to death a block away the other morning. Is this the future – we'll have gunfights in Penn Station? Yes. It starts in areas like this and moves more widely. I'll have lunch with Ray Kelly on Monday. I also think Bratton is a genius. recommendation from the mayor and Police Commissioner is that homelessness will be solved if you stop giving money.
Thursday 12 November 2015 / Hour 1, Block C: Sarah Westwood, Washington Examiner, in re: Mrs Clinton, the dominant candidate. FBI has expanded probe of email and server. Agent looking at 18 U.S.C. § 1001 - false statements. Cd be five years in prison. "Nothing she's said about this is truthful [and then list of errors]. Why has it taken the FBI so long?" We don't know what the FBI's interactions have been; a lot of leads. Note the Clinton ability to leap before the investigation goes forward. Comey is very good, tells nobody nuthin'; why all of a sudden do we have this story? The only time I could argue the FBI had reason to leak was after Pres Obama said there'd been no security leaks – which enraged some members of the intell community. The only reason the Clintons want to get this over with asap is that federal judges have obliged them to. Mrs Clinton and Mrs Fiorina are both candidates; the latter announced, in effect: "I'm coming for you, Hillary Clinton." MK: Mrs Fiorina achieved success by dint of extremely hard work, and there's no question of moral character. JB: Trailer of 13 Hours film – Hollywood's gone over the top. MK: . . . knew it was a terrorist trap, lied to the father of one of those dead; JB: told her daughter Chelsea (who was using a nom de guerre of Diane Reynolds) during the actual attack and murders that it was a terrorist attack. This film is a political document, yes? SW: Based on a book that's been published a long time. JB: Watergate was publicly defined by the film more than by the book.
Thursday 12 November 2015 / Hour 1, Block D: Mary Kissel, in re: There are 112 illegal combattants in Guantanamo. Many have previously been released; of the 112, 53 are "irreconcilable" – cannot be turned loose, incl Khalid Sheikh Mohammed. Tomorrow morning, the WH will issue the president's decision to ignore the will of Congress plus the National Defense Ac t prohibiting these men to be transferred to the US or a third country. Supermax in Colorado, and Kansas, and South Carolina. Pres Obama and supporters trying to obliterate the distinction between a combattant and a common criminal, who holds legal rights. As soon as the Gitmo men arrive, the ACLU and white-shoe law firms will race for publicity by defending them. The point of detaining them is to gather intelligence to prevent future attacks - not to lock them up to make them pay for a crime.
Hour Two
Thursday 12 November 2015 / Hour 2, Block A: Danielle Pletka, AEI, in re: Syria. Interviewing Bibi. The first meeting of the prime minister and the president after the events of earlier this year; was better than workmanlike; both endeavored to make it congenial. PM spoke at AEI, then Center for American Progress; all nonconfrontational. Bibi ambivalent about events in Syria; most interested in keeping Israel out of it. Beirut: 43 dead, claimed by ISIS. Israel thus is in a vise between Sinai and Beirut, both claimed by ISIS, which is in Syria, Lebanon, on the Golan; yet Israel seems to views= Iran as a more serious threat. The Russian document being circulated at UN on constitutional reform in Syria: can they achieve a formula for broad support? Devil's in the details: what opposition will be included? Russia rules out "terrorists" without definition. No path forward. The problem is not what can go wrong but the willingness of the main nations to admit that things have gone wrong. If the US wont acknowledge violations, then there's no force that causes them to be violations. Parallel to Palestinians: hard to enforce what's not acknowledged to exist. Khamenei now refuses to say that he's accepted the deal. Guess we'll need a wholesale Iranian abandonment to get the WH and Europe to back off. Euros lining up to do business with Iran. Preposterous to have thought that "snap-back" would ever work. There has been an internal debate in Iran between bad guys ad worse guys. Were I there, I'd hustle forward to ac ash payout; their failure to do so suggests a genuine power struggle 'twixt Rouhaniists and Khamenei. http://thefederalist.com/2015/11/10/what-benjamin-netanyahu-said-about-s... • http://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-proposal-on-syria-fails-to-gain-trac... • https://www.aei.org/publication/why-is-assad-still-there/
Thursday 12 November 2015 / Hour 2, Block B: Steven A. Cook is Eni Enrico Mattei senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa studies at the Council on Foreign Relations; in re: Egypt and Turkey. Erdogan's recent electoral success after a June outcome that displeased him – sabotaged oppo talks, cracked down on press, war on Kurdish PKK (aerial bombing) - allows him to try to rewrite the constitution to stay in power indefinitely. Turkey is in happy contact with al Nusrah and ISIS; Russia opposes them; Turkey thus is an opponent of Russia. Neither one is targeting ISIS right now. Turks demand the end of the Assad regime, which is profoundly supported by Moscow. Russia is basically offering the world a choice: Assad or ISIS (although Assad has killed a lot more people than ISIS has yet.) • http://blogs.cfr.org/cook/2015/11/09/egypt-into-the-unknown/ • http://www.cfr.org/turkey/turkeys-election-surprise-says-troubled-countr... • http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2015/11/06/do-secret-cabals-rule-mo...
Thursday 12 November 2015 / Hour 2, Block C: Malcolm Hoenlein, in re: Iran; Syria; boycott; City of David.
Thursday 12 November 2015 / Hour 2, Block D: Tony Badran is a Research Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD); in re: Syria. . . . Expected air denial in Lebanon and close support in south. Russian moved south, also struck in Kuneitra. Renewed push; formerly rebuffed by FSA unit, but now Israel may face Hezbollah advancing with Russian air support. Accept it, or protect and [possibly face a crisis?
Hour Three
Thursday 12 November 2015 / Hour 3, Block A: Mme Željka Cvijanović, [zhelka si-ahn-ovich] Prime Minister of Srpska [Bosnian Serbian Republic]; in re: [This is part of Bosnia-Herzegovina, which overall is increasingly invaded by Iranian influence; yet Srpska is disregarded by the US; and has an interests office in Jerusalem. Iranians have an embassy with 350 people and a cultural group next door; US – the White House– is currently much pressuring Srpska to let Muslims run the national educational system.] The effect of the European refugee crisis; Iranian encroachments. In the Balkans, we're afraid of any instability; but so far Serbia and Croatia face the refugee problem. Iran: complicated situation. Bosnia is two entities, one Republica Srpska, trying to be far away from the influences you mentioned; but we're part of the same country, and during the war a lot of jihadists came in and have remained, married local women and are building families. Many worldwide terrorist attacks emanated from Bosnia –Herzegovina. Jihadists usu now have passports. We're trying to fight such forces. One of the allies we've found is Israel. A tested partnership. We jointly promote most important values. We so much appreciate the Israeli and American Jewish representatives who come to pay respect anent the Second World War. . . . The EU is overwhelmed by the refugee crisis; Srpska is not consulted and we do not get enough information, nor do we have the impression that they knowhow to sort out the problem. We expect the EU to have a clear picture of what to do – so far, misunderstandings and disagreements. No clear concept, a bad message for us. I do think they should really more on communications with the Western Balkans. Still infiltration of Wahhabist Turks/Muslim Brotherhood? They have their strongholds in Srpska. They organized their school system entirely differently promote their own values and habits, do not integrate, and provide security problems. We had a terrorist attack in one of our urban communities, which is quite worrisome. http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Op-Ed-Contributors/Fundamentally-Freund-Israels-best-friend-in-Europe-351233
Thursday 12 November 2015 / Hour 3, Block B: IDF Lt.-Col. (ret.) Michael (Mickey) Segall, an expert on strategic issues with a focus on Iran, terrorism, and the Middle East, is a senior analyst at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs and at Foresight Prudence; in re: Iran's stake in Syria. Triple-suicide ISIS attack in Beirut, 43 or more dead. Differentiate between attack against Sinai plane and land attack in Beirut: Hezbollah fights ISIS with Syrian forces; whereas targeting Lebanese stronghold is a different operation. ISI in Mahgreb, and around the world, In this specific instance, the attack target is more regional than international. Hezb and IRGC have lost commanders and troops. Thousands of Basiji troops to Syria to fight is realistic? Yes, very. Iran is already paying a price; since October, 50 or more commanders lost. Full coordination with Russian air campaign, Also, Qasem Soleimani, head of Quds Force . . . Yes, it's obvious that the US left a huge void, a gap, vacuum, and Iran is rushing to fill the void, incl in Yemen. Huge gap, lack of stable American foreign policy in the region and Iran, esp after signing the nuclear agreement, is filling it. The Vienna talks are part of the problem, not the solution. Weapons to Palestinians in the West Bank . . . encircle Israel , incl in Gaza Strip. The European boycott, the labelling: does this further reward the Palestinians? Yes. But from a historical perspective, think of the forty years of . . . no coincidences. This European resolution to mark products from the West Bank will be the same as what Pres Herzog . . . forty years ago. http://jcpa.org/article/irans-stake-syria/
Thursday 12 November 2015 / Hour 3, Block C: Samuel Tadros, Hudson, in re: The collapse of the state: regional state order was the creation of colonial powers – here, Britain and France – so they never had natural borders but were held together by strong-arm dictators, crushed dissent and simmering hatreds between minorities. When the regimes fell, the state collapsed, having no natural basis. The hatreds thus came to the fore. Note how Saddam crushed Assyrian identity, seeing it as a fifth column for Iran; also suppressed the Kurds. the very existence of police states did maintain basic order: streets fairly safe, a semblance of a state. No longer. You wake up in the morning, dunno if you can walk out or not. Underneath the state were centuries of enmity between Sunni or Shia majority and Copts, for example. Police states – Sunni, Druze, Maronites, Copts, have struggled for centuries. Recall 1860 Lebanese massacres, leading to huge Lebanese emigration. Also Armenian massacres. . . With a dictator you can negotiate or buy him off, but with a mob you don't stand a chance. Local Islamists – the guy in the village who decides that the Christian girl won't leave her house without a veil, or pushes the mob to burn the church: dramatic increase since the collapse of the Mubarak regime.
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The Future for Christians in the Middle East (1 of 2) The title of the discussion here today is, “Do Christians in the Middle East have a future?” What a depressing title. Even posing it as a question, regardless of how one answers it, is a sad thing to do, but sad times these are indeed. The train of destruction that is the Islamic State, ISIS, as people know it, has taken Middle East Christians in Syria and Iraq by storm. In Lebanon, the ruling formula that the country has adopted for so many years is crumbling, strained by the growing Sunni/Shiite war raging in neighbouring Syria, leaving the fate of Lebanon’s Christian, as a question mark.
In Egypt, the hopes of deliverance at the hands of the newest military ruler have not materialised with the situation of Christians in that country continuing to deteriorate. These times are indeed depressing, where hardly any corner of the Middle East brings any good news, about the region as a whole or about the region’s Christians in particular. But before we talk about whether Christians have a future in the Middle East, it is perhaps important and necessary for us to begin by talking about their past. About who those people are, about how they survived for such a long time, and about why this moment in time might be so different. http://www.hudson.org/research/11840-the-future-for-christians-in-the-middle-east
Thursday 12 November 2015 / Hour 3, Block D: Samuel Tadros, Hudson, in re: The Future for Christians in the Middle East (2 of 2) The title of the discussion here today is, “Do Christians in the Middle East have a future?” What a depressing title. Even posing it as a question, regardless of how one answers it, is a sad thing to do, but sad times these are indeed. The train of destruction that is the Islamic State, ISIS, as people know it, has taken Middle East Christians in Syria and Iraq by storm. In Lebanon, the ruling formula that the country has adopted for so many years is crumbling, strained by the growing Sunni/Shiite war raging in neighbouring Syria, leaving the fate of Lebanon’s Christian, as a question mark.
In Egypt, the hopes of deliverance at the hands of the newest military ruler have not materialised with the situation of Christians in that country continuing to deteriorate. These times are indeed depressing, where hardly any corner of the Middle East brings any good news, about the region as a whole or about the region’s Christians in particular. But before we talk about whether Christians have a future in the Middle East, it is perhaps important and necessary for us to begin by talking about their past. About who those people are, about how they survived for such a long time, and about why this moment in time might be so different. http://www.hudson.org/research/11840-the-future-for-christians-in-the-middle-east
Hour Four
Thursday 12 November 2015 / Hour 4, Block A: Daniel Henninger, WONDER LAND, in re: GOP Voters: See You in Cleveland
Thursday 12 November 2015 / Hour 4, Block B: Lev Golinkin, author, in re: Ukraine Same-Sex Marriage Law? Bill Bans Anti-Gay Discrimination ... International Business Times ; Ukraine Sides Closer to the European Union, Adopts LGBT Anti ... Passport Magazine ; Ukraine Adds LGBT Protection Clause to Labor Code The Moscow Times ; Ukraine Just Passed Protections for LGBT Employees Buzzfeed.
Thursday 12 November 2015 / Hour 4, Block C: John Bolton. AEI, in re: And where are the Republican presidential candidates? Who among them will proclaim the vital U.S. interests in keeping China's nine-dash line an academic curiosity and insist on spending what it takes to restore the Navy's reach and power? Those who seize this issue and explain its clear significance to American voters should be the real finalists at next year's GOP nominating convention in Cleveland. read this article online Nor will Russian military action alleviate in any way Washington’s fundamental problems in the Middle East. These remain our declining interest and influence; the growth of regional powers like Iran and ISIS that directly threaten America and its allies; and the rise of Russian influence in what was heretofore a U.S.-dominated region. If anything, Washington’s tasks are likely to be complicated by more evidence of vigorous, indeed belligerent Russian activism. And the principal regional threat will still be the terrorist-financing, nuclear-weapons aspirant Iran, which remains Putin’s most important Middle East ally. Obama’s conduct notwithstanding, there will be no pirouette away from the Middle East for the next president. The global war on terrorism must continue, most definitely including ISIS.
John Bolton, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, is a senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
Thursday 12 November 2015 / Hour 4, Block D: Robert Zimmerman, behind the black, in re: Phobos is being pulled apart A new computer model suggests that the grooves on Phobos are caused by tidal forces that are slowly pulling the Martian moon apart. Don’t panic, however. The data suggest that the moon won’t come apart for at least 30 million years. Decline to solar minimum continues It’s that time again buckos! On Monday NOAA posted its monthly update of the solar cycle, showing the Sun’s sunspot activity in October. As I have done every month since 2010, I am posting it here, with annotations to give it context.
The decline in sunspot continue steadily, matching the red prediction curve except that, as it has for this entire solar maximum, the number of sunspots continues to be less than expected. Not only did the ramp up start later and not quite reach the levels predicted, the ramp down started early. Overall, this now ending solar maximum is the weakest in a century. The big question remains: Is the Sun about to head into its first Grand Minimum since the 1600s, or is this weak maximum a one-time event to be followed by stronger activity in later cycles? No matter what anyone tells you, no one knows.
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