Thursday 11 August 2016
Photo, left:
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-hosts: Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal Editorial Board & host of Opinion Journal on WSJ Video. Brett Arends, reporter. Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents.
Hour One
Thursday 11 August 2016 / Hour 1, Block A: Mona Charen, NRO, in re: Markets are preparing for a Hillary win. “If you’ve never seen a full Party meltdown – this is it. Various Republicans have written a letter to the RNC and asked it to quit funding Trump all together and focus on all the important, downticket races. There’s a faction – Ann Coulter, Sean Hannity, Laura Ingraham – want the GOP to be a Trumpist, white nationalist party, against immigration. We saw one of them lose in Wisconsin. The Freedom Caucus. There are Republicans who hold that Trump must be thoroughly defeated to [get rid of] his brand of politics. This is different from just before Obama. Are the markets ready for Trump? No. The Senate is still a toss-up. If the market anticipates that the Senate and House will go Dem, will price it in: a lot of nerves around biotech & health care; and factor in tax increases on very high earners.
Thursday 11 August 2016 / Hour 1, Block B: Mona Charen, NRO, in re: Imagining conservatives in a Clinton presidency. The Milton Friedmanites – smaller govt, pro-market (not pro-bz); risk-takers, entrepreneurs – will not take risks, money stays overseas, widening of economic inequality (lack of income mobility) – a conundrum for the conservative movement. Equality of opportunity, not of outcome. Trump is a weak front-runner – but he certainly cleared the field of 16 opponents. His supporters speak of things hat are antithetical to libertarians: deep hostility to immigration. Visceral and strong – opposition to “them.”, which Trump speaks of. They want a big govt that represents them, not others. Let’s say he loses; after Nov 8, picking up the pieces, what to do? Note: 85% of mfrg diminution is from productivity. Reformecon Movement.
Thursday 11 August 2016 / Hour 1, Block C: Veronique de Rugy, Mercatus, in re; Detroit: mfrg in America. The short version of the decline and fall the Emerald City; put all its eggs in one basket, then didn't change over time, and the govt tried to preserve the interests of the automobile companies, which was a big mistake With innovation, the designers moved out to Detroit; and the same ol’ companies are persisting in trying to re-live the past Narrow-minded & depressing. Problem with protected firms is inability to adapt, to innovate. Power of ec growth: money in the hands of low-skilled workers; fab in the beginning, then worked against them later as they failed to continue education and adapt. Democratic Party for decades, cronyism with unions and other industry groups; when it all starts heading downhill and govt steps in to protect industry, public workers, the whole town - And a rigid class structure: in meetings, chairman if GM was allowed to smoke cigars but the chairman of Ford was not; like the Hapsburgs. Dems: if the govt thinks you’re putting your bz abroad for no good reason, you get a huge tax. If you decide to renounce your US citizenship and you’re worth over $500,000 in order to save money, you get a confiscatory tax for years. . . . This is a govt that fights Swiss banks for obeying Swiss laws in Switzerland.
Thursday 11 August 2016 / Hour 1, Block D: Richard Outzen, publisher of the Pensacola Independent News; in re: Mrs Clinton is down two points in Florida; Rubio up; everything within the margin of error. Trump: rallying today, big rallies; yet he’s not pulling ahead because of his daily statements. Hard-core Republicans have trouble because they don't believe he’s Republican. In the Panhandle, it's all Trump; he could eat a baby. Marco Rubio; Patrick Murphy – in a battle with Allan Greyson, much more liberal who was ahead till hi ex-wife began to tell tales. . . . In Florida, GOP establishment is starting to say, “We need to pull away from Trump.” Thought that there’ll be a huge undervote: not vote for the presidency, but do for the downticket. Can't be lukewarm on Trump. Rubio running for the residency? Will again. Twenty-nine electoral votes in Florida. No hanging chads!
Hour Two
Thursday 11 August 2016 / Hour 2, Block A: Hanin Ghaddar, NOW (major Lebanese paper) & Friedmann Visiting Fellow at The Washington Institute; in re: Syrian civil war. Hezbollah’s losing more and more fighters; how to explain deaths? Budget bleeding, no victory in sight; community displeasure, but they dasn’t quit. Huge casualties in the battle for Aleppo. Big defeat. . . Despite the bravado, it can't risk a conflict with Israel but it expands missile bases in homes along the southern Lebanese border. Risk getting into uncontrollable escalation? They fear that Israel may want a war with them – “stressed out.” Hezbollah used as cannon fodder by Russians and Iranians. Hezb mission has changed: but can Nasrallah continue to order his troops in to death indefinitely? Strategy 1: Shia are too isolated to be hired by anyone else; it's a job with benefits and the people have no alternative.
---Ten years after the 34-day war between Israel and Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Shiite militia is embroiled in yet another costly military campaign. Since 2011, Hezbollah has sacrificed blood and treasure in Syria, testing its local Shiite constituency and tarnishing its hard-earned reputation for "resisting" Israel among the region's Sunni Muslims. Despite high human and financial costs, however, Syria hasn't proved a quagmire for Hezbollah. Indeed, the organization is emerging from the campaign with a broad range of enhanced military capabilities. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/a-transformative...
Hanin Ghaddar is the inaugural Friedmann Visiting Fellow at The Washington Institute. The longtime managing editor of Lebanon's NOW news website, she’ll focus her research on Shi'ite politics throughout the Levant. As managing editor of NOW, Ghaddar has shed light on a broad range of cutting-edge issues, from the evolution of Hezbollah inside Lebanon's fractured political system to Iran's growing influence throughout the Middle East. Prior to joining NOW in 2007, Ghaddar wrote for Lebanese newspapers As-Safir, An-Nahar, and Al-Hayat, and also worked as a researcher for the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) regional office. A native of Al-Ghazieh, Lebanon, Ghaddar holds a bachelor's degree in English Literature and a master's degree in Middle Eastern studies, both from the American University in Beirut.
· http://www.thetower.org/3678-report-next-war-with-hezbollah-could-cause-thousands-of-civilian-deaths-in-israel/
· http://www.thetower.org/3683-ex-treasury-official-hezbollah-has-turned-lebanese-villages-into-missile-silos/print/
· http://www.aei.org/publication/how-diplomatic-shortsightedness-a-decade-ago-empowers-hezbollah-today/
· http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2016/08/iranian-media-report-deployment-of-elite-iraqi-lebanese-combatants-to-aleppo.php
Thursday 11 August 2016 / Hour 2, Block B: Fabrice Balanche, Universite de Lyon 2 & Washington Institute; in re: The middle class of Aleppo —the western side of the city – support Assad. Those on the east, coming in from the countryside, do not as much. Rebel groups in Aleppo are now getting new and more sophisticated weaponry; in the FT this week, a lot of trucks coming in from Turkey via Qatar and Saudi. Turkish coup didn’t affect the weapons, but what may affect it is the apparent re-friending of Putin and Erdogan. Does the middle class of Aleppo think it’ll be killed? Yes, 60% of Christians have left. Al Nusrah, and Uyghurs, Islamic Party of East Turkestan from China. They all see the US as having betrayed the rebellion and have zero confidence in it: in 2014, Barack Obama didn’t bomb when he said he would. No real chance of negotiations.
Fabrice Balanche, an associate professor and research director at the University of Lyon 2, is a visiting fellow at The Washington Institute. Balanche, who also directs the Research Group on the Mediterranean and the Middle East (GREMMO), has spent ten years in Lebanon and Syria, his main areas of study, since first engaging in fieldwork in the region in 1990.
· http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/is-aleppo-turnaround-sustainable-for-rebels
· http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/prosecuting-assad-war-crimes-mass-atrocities-and-u.s.-policy
· http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/thomas-joscelyn-jihadists-and-other-rebels-claim-to-have-broken-through-siege-of-aleppo/
· http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2016/08/iranian-media-report-deployment-of-elite-iraqi-lebanese-combatants-to-aleppo.php
Thursday 11 August 2016 / Hour 2, Block C: Dr. Aykan Erdemir is a former member of the Turkish Parliament; in re: Recip Tayyip Erdogan goes to Moscow & St Petersburg to sit with Vladimir Putin post Turkey’s ambush of Russian warplane late last year. “Turkstream” and Southstream” – pipelines to pass through Turkey, and Russian tourists return to Turkey. All now happy? Unhh – now he accuses the US of plotting the coup last month; return to Putin again. Erdogan pulled al this before; exactly three years after the rapprochement, Turkey shot down a Russian jet. Ergo, Erdogan is trying to struggle out of his isolation. He called the failed coup “a gift from God” and polls now give him 67% popularity for the first time. Caveat this picture: 85% of Islamic party support him, and only 15% of others; and behind all the rhetoric, Kurds are sedulously kept out of the regrouping; and even though Christians attended rallies, they were repeatedly insulted by speakers. Turkish foreign minister will visit Iran. Back in the 1960s. Russian-Turkish alliance was limited to economic; probably the same today, and not likely to include military cooperation. Crimean Tatars: Putin said that Minsk II is finished; seems that Erdogan is paying for Crimean Tatars to create chaos in Crimea. Till recently, Erdogan enjoyed favorable relations with both Putin and Tatars. Turkey is also home to lots of Chechen refugee; a headache in Turkish-Russian relations, Erdogan plays a dual game: at home, warm with Chechens and Tatars. Abroad, all nice to Russians. Using failed coup to strengthen his one-man rule; but after firing and jailing so may, can he rebuild the Turkish military? It's never been this crippled in history. At this moment, he may not much care. The Ottoman Empire 500 year later, and a century after the Versailles Treaty cut up the Middle east as though it was an apple pie.
Dr. Aykan Erdemir is a former member of the Turkish Parliament (2011-2015) who served in the EU-Turkey Joint Parliamentary Committee, EU Harmonization Committee, and the Ad Hoc Parliamentary Committee on the IT Sector and the Internet. As an outspoken defender of pluralism, minority rights, and religious freedoms in the Middle East, Dr. Erdemir has been at the forefront of the struggle against religious persecution, hate crimes, and hate speech in Turkey. He is a founding member of the International Panel of Parliamentarians for Freedom of Religion or Belief, and a drafter of and signatory to the Oslo Charter for Freedom of Religion or Belief (2014) as well as a signatory legislator to the London Declaration on Combating Antisemitism.
· http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/dr-aykan-erdemir-the-turkey-russia-reset/
· http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/turkish-russian-ties-after-the-erdogan-putin-breakthrough
· http://www.wsj.com/articles/fallout-from-turkey-coup-leaves-syria-rebels-in-the-lurch-1470303006
· http://www.aei.org/publication/will-the-kurds-save-turkey/?utm_source=paramount&utm_medium=email&utm_content=AEITODAY&utm_campaign=081116
· http://www.aei.org/publication/will-erdogan-close-ataturks-mausoleum/?utm_source=paramount&utm_medium=email&utm_content=AEITODAY&utm_campaign=081116
Thursday 11 August 2016 / Hour 2, Block D: Mohsen Sazegara, in re: The $400 million paid in cash, related to $1.7 billion from pre-Khomeini: $400 million in cash means only one thing: giving htr money to terrorists –Hezbollah, IRGC, Houthis, Lebanon I followed the ns, found no satisfactory answer from US officials. Next election is 17 May; Iranian army s out of politics, not involved in economic affairs, not corrupted, and not in the business of suppressing the people consequently have a good reputation. The Revolutionary Guards already attacking Rouhani; secret negotiations; trying to mount their own candidate – might be Teheran mayor; pressing Rouhani just now. Iran’s economy is so bad, esp its banking system; the political system, battles for power; regime cannot solve high inflation & high unemployment; and big mfrg companies are stopping with strikes and demonstrations around the country; 3.5 million industrial workers not getting their salary of $200/mo. Social, political, cultural and above all economic problems internally, esp concerning corruption. / Baku mtfg with Putin, Aliev and Rouhani –three who can't stand each other? - Russia plays the card of Iran to pressure Azerbaijan republic. Twenty Sunni prisoners just executed.
Mohsen Sazegara is an Iranian journalist and pro-democracy political activist. Dr. Sazegara held several high-ranking positions in the Government of Mir-Hossein Mousavi, including deputy prime minister, minister of industry, deputy chairman of the budget and planning department, and many more before becoming disillusioned with the government in 1989 and pushing for reforms. He applied to become a candidate for President of Iran in the 2001 election but was declined.
· http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/may-clifford-d-what-does-america-owe-iran/
· http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/amir-toumaj-the-iran-money-transfer-unanswered-questions/
· http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/benjamin-weinthal-iran-executes-gay-teenager-in-violation-of-international-law/
· http://www.aei.org/publication/ransoming-hostages-with-iran-only-leads-to-terror/
· http://index.heritage.org/military/2016/assessments/threats/middle-east/
Hour Three
Thursday 11 August 2016 / Hour 3, Block A: Malcolm Hoenlein, in re: ISIS in Sinai pulls out the 17,00 Nazi bombs remaining underground in Sinai, and is using them against Egypt – ten instances of lethal explosions.. Battle of el Alamein in 1942 in NW Egypt; ISIS hires dirt-poor locals to dig up th mines, many poor people die ISIS salvages he metal. Egyptian army has been trying for years to clean this up, is about three years short of completion (have removed 3 million since 1981); Iran-Hamas-ISIS axis. / Mahmoud Abbas (n his eleventh year of a four-year term) has once again refused a peace offer: Secy Kerry offered Abbas unconditional negotiations with Netanyahu – and Abbas again reused. Abbas said, “Palestinians love death more than life in fighting for Palestine.” He has no obvious successor; Dhalan and Barghouti; Abbas fears that the autocracy will end. Thirty thousand young people being trained to stab with knives or bld tunnels Sixty percent of $200 mil PA to World Vision has been going to terrorism. / The $400 million palletized cash sent to Iran: had to be done before a US law (passed on 18 Dec but came into effect a month later?) came into effect. Bum-rushed the cash to Teheran. / Saleh in Iran announces today that Russia and Iran will build two new nuclear plants. In 2027 will rapidly expand its nuclear program. / Turkey is unstable – Erdogan in his big-man reaction to the putsch has alienated his military and portions of civilian society. Note that Erdogan blamed the US for the coup but not Israel . . .
Thursday 11 August 2016 / Hour 3, Block B: Dr. Mordechai Kedar; in re: regional dynamics; Palestinians. Although in some instances Hamas works closely with Salafists (IS) outside of Gaza, esp in Sinai, within Gaza Hamas imprisons IS and tortures them in underground torture dungeons, sometimes kills them. Hamas allows zero challenge to it within Gaza. Salafists try to annoy Israel by shooting; . . . Will Hamas participate in West Bank elections/ Has significant favor there; may be the next ruler of the PA because everyone now hates the PA for its ghastly corruption. With real elections, people punish the present govt, which imposes law and order and taxes. Fatah? Has become old; is also corrupt - was founded 65 years ago and no new blood in its ancient veins. ISIS recruits in Sinai? It's become a refuge for jihadis from all over the world; and also Sinai tribes – Bedouin – because of how badly the Egyptian govt treats them, so the local Bedu join the jihadis.
Mordechai Kedar (born 1952 in Tel Aviv; מרדכי קידר; مردخاي كيدار) is an Israeli scholar of Arabic literature and a lecturer at Bar-Ilan University. He holds the Ph.D. from Bar-Ilan University.
Kedar is an academic expert on the Israeli Arab population. He served for twenty-five years in IDF Military Intelligence, where he specialized in Islamic groups, the political discourse of Arab countries, the Arabic press and mass media, and the Syrian domestic arena. The Los Angeles Times‘ Edmund Sanders described him as “one of the few Arabic-speaking Israeli pundits seen on Arabic satellite channels defending Israel”.
· http://www.israelnationalnews.com/Articles/Article.aspx/19292
· http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/palestinian-local-elections-an-opportunity-for-political-revival-or-a-game
· http://mordechaikedar.com/going-become-gaza/
Thursday 11 August 2016 / Hour 3, Block C: Dan Henninger, WSJ, in re: http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-clinton-default-mistake-1470869369?tesla=y
Thursday 11 August 2016 / Hour 3, Block D: Michae Ledeen, FDD, in re: http://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelledeen/2016/08/09/why-was-our-iranian-spy-killed-by-the-mullahs/#3e0080f369c3
Hour Four
Thursday 11 August 2016 / Hour 4, Block A: Mary Anastasia O'Grady, WSJ, in re: How Brazil's Lula Conned the World (1 of 2)
Thursday 11 August 2016 / Hour 4, Block B: Mary Anastasia O'Grady, WSJ, in re: How Brazil's Lula Conned the World (2 of 2)
Thursday 11 August 2016 / Hour 4, Block C: Patrice McDemott, Science magazine, in re: Reforms to improve U.S. government accountability. Five decades after the United States first enacted the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA), Congress has voted to make the first major reforms to the statute since 2007. President Lyndon Johnson signed the first FOIA on 4 July 1966, enshrining in law the public's right to access to information from executive branch government agencies. Scientists and others around the world can use the FOIA to learn what the U.S. government has done in its policies and practices. Proposed reforms should be a net benefit to public understanding of the scientific process and knowledge, by increasing the access of scientists to archival materials and reducing the likelihood of science and scientists being suppressed by official secrecy or bureaucracy. http://science.sciencemag.org/content/353/6294/35.full / Alexander B. Howard <pmcdermott@openthegovernment.org>, & Patrice McDermott (1 of 2)
Thursday 11 August 2016 / Hour 4, Block D: Patrice McDemott, Science magazine, in re: Reforms to improve U.S. government accountability. Five decades after the United States first enacted the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA), Congress has voted to make the first major reforms to the statute since 2007. President Lyndon Johnson signed the first FOIA on 4 July 1966, enshrining in law the public's right to access to information from executive branch government agencies. Scientists and others around the world can use the FOIA to learn what the U.S. government has done in its policies and practices. Proposed reforms should be a net benefit to public understanding of the scientific process and knowledge, by increasing the access of scientists to archival materials and reducing the likelihood of science and scientists being suppressed by official secrecy or bureaucracy. http://science.sciencemag.org/content/353/6294/35.full
Alexander B. Howard <pmcdermott@openthegovernment.org>, & Patrice McDermott (2 of 2)
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