Thursday 10 November 2016
Photo, left: Kurdish Peshmerga soldier
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-hosts: Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal Editorial Board & host of Opinion Journal on WSJ Video. Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents.
Hour One
Thursday 10 November 2016 / Hour 1, Block A: Victor Davis Hanson, Hoover, in re: We were all expecting defeat of the GOP. Instead we have the White House, the Congress, the Senate. Mrs Clinton as a billion dollars and an excellent ground game; Trump was derided for not. Gucifer and Wikileaks: disparaging Hispanics, lying, all the deeply unethical deeds – all corrupt. Ivy League degree, Wall Street: all that means nothing as they have no soul.
Any Senator who ran with Trump won. Most Republicans agree on Second Amendment, divorce, fossil fuels, et al.
Obama’s legacy will be overturned.
Note that African-Americans don't care for the immigration problem and certainly are not sold on the transgender stuff.
The whole liberal pretense of monolithic ideology is shattered. In Tennessee, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, people do not resonate with the current demonstrations.
Mrs Clinton kept saying, “Vote early,” because she knew more scandals were about to emerge.
In my former campus I can get counseling for the traumatic election.
---oops – Trump is back on twitter.
Thursday 10 November 2016 / Hour 1, Block B: Victor Davis Hanson, Hoover, in re: Mr Trump is someone who builds building n welcomes guests I his hotels. He successfully manages his workers all across America. . . . He has an outer-borough patois; you may not like him but he’s authentic. Populism is a state of mind. Bill Clinton should have been a populist, was for a moment but morphed into an elitist.
Trump is an authentic American: probably only the US could produce such a person. In Europe: bankruptcy? yellow hair? Acceptable here.
He began tweeting again a few moments ago. Reminiscent of George Patton: you wouldn’t want him over for dinner, but you wouldn't want him not to be your general. Russia and China? Must be uncomfortable.
Thursday 10 November 2016 / Hour 1, Block C: Victor Davis Hanson, Hoover, in re: . . . economy, prosperity. Obama Adm took many steps that frankly were extralegal. People won’t be afraid of the IRS, SEC, or DoJ; attention on creating jobs and wealth.
EPA, SEC, FCC, and CFPB: all these are burdens on the American taxpayer.
Mexicans and Canadians will visit Trump and continue NAFTA will any concessions to the US.
Profl bureaucrats with a deep dislike of prosperity and wealth. Trump will curb them. Deep down. Even the left knew this wasn’t sustainable. Hubris incurs nemesis; Trump will have to be humble. Will build a be-yootiful and yuge wall.
Thursday 10 November 2016 / Hour 1, Block D: Edward Hayes, Esq., The Daily Beast and criminal defense lawyer par excellence, in re: [The pollsters were almost all off. Dave Brady o f Hoover says: Pollsters correctly predicted that Clinton wd get more votes, but not that Trump would turn Michigan and other states red. They partially predicted who’d vote for Trump. Did not predict the significant minority turnout for Trump, nor the unenthusiasm for Clinton.]
Trump Tower is no a no-fly area forever: NYPD has a massive job for at least years to come. Is someone wants to fly a plane into the bldg, it's a big target. Recall “Car 54” song – Krushchev’s coming in from Idlewild. Fortunately, it's a superb police department, but it looks lie an impossible job to me. A lot of people live and work there – someone might slip a bomb into someone’s luggage or groceries. High-level security, with assault rifles.
Another mode might be to attack the perimeter and create panic in New York – suicide bombers in Rockefeller Center, for example We have the NYPD, the State Police, everybody. Nyexit! Eddie Hayes leads the New York City secession.
Hour Two
Thursday 10 November 2016 / Hour 2, Block A: Robert Satloff, in re: Middle East. How do you asses he direction the new admnistration will move: talk of crapping the Iran deal. Or adjustments? Trump has said he’ll tear up the dea, or else “enforce the hell out of he deal.’ My guess is that the costs of scrapping wil be too much – and will give a get-out-of-jail-for-free pass to Iran, and Euros will follow along. Enforcement will probably work better – push back more generally on Iran’s subversive behavior, sending Shi’a militias to Syria and Iraq, all sorts of dreadful deeds. Also, fewer diplomatic costs.
We’ve never before had a presidential campaigner say such nice things about an active adversary (here, Russia). Americans wd like to have better relations, but it has to be a two-way street, with consequences for irresponsible behavior. However, Russia is not targeting ISIS but anyone not favoring the Syrian president. Americans wd like to partner vs ISIS and vs jihadist. Can we separate Russia from Iran?
Egypt’s intimate connection to Israel. If the US gave certitude to el Sisi, that’d boost his standing regionally. But Egypt and Saudi Arabia are at political war right now – Saudis have ceased sending any oil to Egypt! Imagine Trump Cairo? His first congratulatory call was from Pres el Sisi.
· http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/president-elect-...
· http://jcpa.org/middle-east-looks-to-america-for-leadership/
· http://english.ahram.org.eg/News/248648.aspx
· http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/egypt-and-israel...
· http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/what-if-the-big-...
Robert Satloff has served since 1993 as executive director of The Washington Institute. In that capacity, he oversees all Institute operations and leads the organization's unparalleled team of Middle East scholars, experts and policy practitioners. He also holds the Institute's Howard P. Berkowitz Chair in U.S. Middle East Policy. An expert on Arab and Islamic politics as well as U.S. Middle East policy, Dr. Satloff has written and spoken widely on the Arab-Israeli peace process, the challenge of Political Islam, and the need to revamp U.S. public diplomacy in the Middle East. Soon after the September 11 attacks, Dr. Satloff and his family moved to Rabat, capital of Morocco, and for more than two years, he traveled throughout the Middle East and Europe and wrote extensively on ways to inject urgency and ideas into the ideological campaign against radical Islamism.
Thursday 10 November 2016 / Hour 2, Block B: Omri Ceren, in re: The Iran deal. It always was going to collapse under its own weight, but Mr Trump probably was in error to say that he would not scuttle the deal – one’s power is in being able to threaten severity. We now see that the Obama adm was essentially bribing Iran not to cause too much visible trouble. Now Iran illegally stockpiles plutonium for bombs – and Obama isn't even pretending to monitor that.
Wen a govt spokesman says, “I’m not ready to use the V –word” – violation. And Obama paid Iran for the violation! US has induced Iran to violate. One of he conditions was that Iran could have max 130 tons of heavy water; they swiftly went over, so Obama bought the overage with cash!! Last February, Washington pretended hat the US needed he heavy water so buying it was a win-win. Not true: that kneecapped US suppliers.
This time, State just said, “Listen. I agree they're not complying, but I won't use the V-word [violate] [unless it's a trend of violations].” Trump: I’ll police that deal so hard hey won’t have a chance.
If Iran violates, we snap back sanctions—but the deal was never designed to be enforced. If it's taken serious, Iran will just walk away. After they walk away, the deal is over, yes?
Everyone knows what’s going; the question is, what will Obama do and what will Trump do in the next two months? Ergo we’re now at heightened risk – but less than a week ago.
· https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/iran/2016-11-07/moving-forward-iran
· http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-idUSKBN1342T1
Omri Ceren is the Managing Director for Press and Strategy at The Israel Project. He is a political operative and an academic who has been involved in politics and journalism for over a decade, with a focus on Israel and Iran issues. Ceren is a Ph.D. Candidate in Communication at the University of Southern California's Annenberg School.
Thursday 10 November 2016 / Hour 2, Block C: Mike Pregent, in re: Iraq. Erdogan has printed maps saying that Mosul is in Turkey. Everybody going to Mosul is doing so to be sure the other guys don't get more control. Is the prospective Trump adm . . .
Seventy days to the election; what will the forces to in advance t gain leverage? Predominantly Shia forces: Iraqi army, federal police and militias. Mostly focussed on Tel Afar. Also Turkish forces watching Sunni Turkomen n Tel Afar,
Then the Pesh – the only force actually listening to Americans, so they ‘ve taken a position preventing ISIS fro m . .. Shia militias: moving into Kirkuk . . . Nobody is focused on protecting ht population in Mosul, just want credit for fighting and to prevent others from getting power there.
Iran in western Iraq? Qassem Soleimani in Iraq. He leads IRGC militias, conveys that he has primacy, and noting that the Kurds have to honor that. The Iraqi army is flying sectarian (Shia) flags, even in Kurdistan. Militia know that the Iraqi govt can't do anything about it and anyway don’t want to.
Rush to resolve Mosul will [create more problems}, need to slow down and collect intell. If you use the Sunnis – intell and manpower - in Mosel to expel ISIS, that’ll work nicely. The more Iranian/Shia forces take over, the local Sunnis will rebel against what they see as dangerous [hostile] invasion.
There are paces in Mosul where you can't drive a tan here, let alone a Humvee. Someone could drip an IED into your turret.
ISIS as a whole is morphing into al n al Qaeda-like group – not showing flags. Flying sectarian flags engenders natural resistance to collaborators.
Why did Baghdadi speak? He hoped the Shia militias would fly sectarian flags; Baghdadi warned the local Sunni populace: I told you they’d invade. Same speech the Japanese made a Iwo Jima and on Okinawa.
ISIS is quickly learning that unless you can shoot down a US aircraft you shouldn't plant a black flag. What can Trump do absent Congressional permission? First, Pput __ back iu under the Command f CENTCOM. Huge opppty to recruit Sunnis and get sunni intell; unique, Obama refused to, but this is exactly what Trump wanst to do: move theperatn to Kurdistan, take Mosul and keep ISIS out.
· https://s3.amazonaws.com/media.hudson.org/files/publications/20161018Pre...
· http://www.hudson.org/events/1379-a-view-of-the-u-s-election-from-iraq11...
· http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/battle-for-mosul...
· http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/amir-toumaj-iraqi-militia-leade...
· http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/amir-toumaj-iraqi-pmf-attempts-...
· https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/10/19/satellite-i...
Mike Pregent is an adjunct Fellow at Hudson Institute. He is a senior Middle East analyst, a former adjunct lecturer for the College of International Security Affairs, and a visiting Fellow at the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University. Pregent is a former intelligence officer with over 28 years experience working security, terrorism, counter-insurgency, and policy issues in the Middle East, North Africa, and Southwest Asia. He is an expert in Middle East and North Africa political and security issues, counter-terrorism analysis, stakeholder communications, and strategic planning. He spent considerable time working malign Iranian influence in Iraq as an advisor to Iraq’s Security and Intelligence apparatus. Pregent served in Desert Shield and Desert Storm, served as a liaison officer in Egypt during the 2000 Intifada, as a counter-insurgency intelligence officer at CENTCOM in 2001, and as a company commander in Afghanistan in 2002. Pregent served as an embedded advisor with the Peshmerga in Mosul 2005-06. Also, as a civilian SME working for DIA, he served as a political and military advisor to USF-I focusing on reconciliation, the insurgency, and Iranian influence in Iraq from 2007-2011. He was a violent extremism and foreign fighter analyst at CENTCOM from 2011-2013.
Thursday 10 November 2016 / Hour 2, Block D: Mohsen Sazegara, in re: Iran. Seventy days till 20 Jan. Lots of time for bad actors to [do bad deeds]; what will Ian do? Perhaps not much till it can see what Pres Trump will do. JCPOA. Trump will be tough – violations led to sanctions. Do they think they can play Trump? I think so, I don’t know if there’s any capacity left in the deal. What they can’t resist is sanctions against the IRGC, or he Leader – they own 60% of the whole economy. Maybe small provocations in the Persian Gulf, or in Israel or Iraq, they’ll test a small amount.
· http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-idUSKBN1342T1
· https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/iran-nuclear-deal...
· Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
· http://freebeacon.com/national-security/iranian-military-leader-threaten...
Mohsen Sazegara is an Iranian journalist and pro-democracy political activist. Dr. Sazegara held several high-ranking positions in the Government of Mir-Hossein Mousavi, such as deputy prime minister, minister of industry, deputy chairman of the budget and planning department, and many more before becoming disillusioned with the government in 1989 and pushing for reforms. He applied to become a candidate for President of Iran in the 2001 election but was declined.
Hour Three
Thursday 10 November 2016 / Hour 3, Block A: Anna Borshchevskaya, in re: Russia. The Moscow Kreml buzz; Trump’s tweets are read by everyone globally instantly, no time for polishing fine words. Steve Moore said the Trump adm will seek a trade deal with Russia.
I’d approach everything said right now with a high degree of caution. Trump’s open admiration of Putin, and statements possibly accepting Crimea as pat of Russia; statements on NATO (outrageous). Syria may be critical as Trump might use lifting sanctions on Russia to make a deal. Will that pacify Russia? I’m skeptical. In the past, such things have not cubed Putin’s aggressive behavior. Meanwhile Trump is highly unpredictable.
Putin said that communications breakdown was not his fault (which is not accurate). Probably even the Kremlin didn't expect Trump to win. Putin’s view of he world: Russia has license to be suspicious of competing great powers surrounding Russia, starting with Peter. If history of the last few words is an indication, look at the “reset” Obama began immed after Georgia – yet the US admitted Russia to the WTO. Ergo relations might improve in the short term, but Russians much value predictability, not Trump’s strong suit. Recall the Putin-Erdogan relationship which was good, till Turkey shot down the Russian jet. How does Russian interference with email affect relations? Putin said it wasn’t Russia, and it looked as though he didn't care.
· http://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-in-position-to-forge-new-u-s-russia-re...
· https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/moscow-had-contacts-with-trump-team...
· https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/11/10/heres-how-...
· http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/11/08/this-is-what-it-looks-like-when-russ...
Anna Borshchevskaya is the Ira Weiner Fellow at The Washington Institute, focusing on Russia's policy toward the Middle East. In addition, she is a Fellow at the European Foundation for Democracy and was previously with the Peterson Institute for International Economics and the Atlantic Council. A former analyst for a U.S. military contractor in Afghanistan, she has also served as communications director at the American Islamic Congress. Her analysis is published widely in journals such as The New Criterion, Turkish Policy Quarterly, and the Middle East Quarterly, and she also conducts translation and analysis for the U.S. Army's Foreign Military Studies Office and its flagship publication, Operational Environment Watch, and writes a foreign affairs column for Forbes. Originally from Moscow, Ms. Borshchevskaya came to the United States as a refugee in 1993 and has since received an MA in international relations from the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) and a BA in political science and international relations from the State University of New York at Geneseo.
Thursday 10 November 2016 / Hour 3, Block B: Malcolm Hoenlein, in re: In Nov 1938, through 10 Nov: Kristallnacht, an unsolved mystery of the German people; set fire to Jewish institutions, esp synagogues; murdered and tortured people and sent people to camps. The extermination and Holocaust began very early, 1933. The better name is Pogromnacht.
Neo-Nazi deeds have just been reported in Tagesspiegel: today, a neo-Nazi website published locations of 70 synagogues, Jewish schools and other institutions, inviting attacks from Nazis and skinheads. Seventy years after the US army crashed in, a resuscitation of evil.
In Israel: dvpt of the aquifer. Palestinians have water, being in part oceans of water that Israel provides to the West Bank. Palestinians refuse the water, and now have sent an urgent letter to UNRWA, USAID, and many other groups, saying that the Israelis aren’t sending enough water – even as Palestinians are wasting huge amounts of it. Bizarre.
Turks agreed to remove Hamas leadership out of Ankara to Qatar or elsewhere, but they’re still very much there in Ankara and Istanbul, functioning easily.
Abbas is in the twelfth year of his four-year term. Enormous public funds are constantly being rechanneled to build megamansions for the “leadership.”
Netanyahu has been invited to the Trump White House.
Thursday 10 November 2016 / Hour 3, Block C: Richard A Epstein, Hoover Institution, Chicago Law, NYU Law, in re:
Thursday 10 November 2016 / Hour 3, Block D: Richard A Epstein, Hoover Institution, Chicago Law, NYU Law, in re:
Hour Four
Thursday 10 November 2016 / Hour 4, Block A: Gene Marks, Washington Post, in re:
For smaller merchants, maybe opening on Thanksgiving Day isn’t such a great idea after all https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/on-small-business/wp/2016/11/10/for-smaller-merchants-maybe-opening-on-thanksgiving-day-isnt-such-a-great-idea-after-all/
97 per cent of small businesses still use paper checks to make and accept payments https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/on-small-business/wp/2016/11/04/97-percent-of-small-businesses-still-use-paper-checks-to-make-and-accept-payments/
Are you ready for the world’s biggest shopping day of the year next week? Kobe and Katy are. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/on-small-business/wp/2016/11/03/are-you-ready-for-the-worlds-biggest-shopping-day-of-the-year-next-week-kobe-and-katy-are/
This start-up believes it can slow the aging process – and Jeff Bezos agrees https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/on-small-business/wp/2016/10/28/this-start-up-believes-it-can-slow-the-aging-process-and-jeff-bezos-agrees/
Legal Weed Has Arrived. Get Ready for the Budweiser of Bud https://www.wired.com/2016/11/legal-weed-arrived-get-ready-budweiser-bud/ @StocktonSays @WIRED
Boulder's sugary drink tax will hurt small business aimed to improve health http://kdvr.com/2016/11/09/boulders-sugary-drink-tax-hurting-small-business-aimed-to-improve-health/ @DrewEngelbart @KDVR
Small Business Employees Say Lack of Feedback and Communication Leaves Them Unfulfilled http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/small-business-employees-say-lack-of-feedback-and-communication-leaves-them-unfulfilled-300360489.html @PRNewswire
Cloud traffic to jump 262% by 2020, according to Cisco Global Cloud Index http://www.techrepublic.com/article/cloud-traffic-to-jump-262-by-2020-according-to-cisco-global-cloud-index/ @teena_maddox @techrepublic
College student finds success with online clothing business http://www.silive.com/news/index.ssf/2016/11/21-year-old_finds_success_with.html @siadvance
Thursday 10 November 2016 / Hour 4, Block B: Gene Marks, Washington Post (2 of 2)
Thursday 10 November 2016 / Hour 4, Block C: James Taranto, WSJ editorial board, in re:
Thursday 10 November 2016 / Hour 4, Block D: James Taranto, WSJ editorial board, in re: