Photo, left:  Rowanduz Gorge, Kurdistan. See Hour 2, Block B, Michael Pregent, WSJ, & US Army intell (ret) and visiting Fellow at National Defense University, on the road ahead in fighting ISIS.
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
 
Hour One
Thursday  1 October 2015 / Hour 1, Block A: Mona Charen, NRO, in re: The New Cold War. War-fighting environment: Moscow and Washington identify a battlefield and pour in vast resources to proxy fighters. Although we think of ourselves as n a "post-honor culture," this is a moment when honor makes a reappearance. Russians have been so blatant about dissing the US.  The businessman from New York, Dr Carson, an Mrs Fiorina:  Mr Trump doesn't have grasp the nature of the problem, Dr Carson, whom we respect a great deal as a physician and human, has made disturbing statements on geopolitics.  Mrs Fiorina has a Thatcheresque approach to leadership. Marco Rubio predicted exactly what the Russians are now doing. Cruz is equally good on foreign policy.  Huge problem for Rand Paul: we're paying the wages of a weak foreign policy right now, where aggressor rush in to a power vacuum. Gov Bus, Christie, Kasich: Kasich – not excellent; Christie:  tries to present a tough face, we'll see; Jeb Bush has been all over the map.  . . . The enormous problems we're in now is a direct result of [bad governance]. "Deconflict" has become a euphemism
Thursday  1 October 2015 / Hour 1, Block B: Marcus Weisgerber, Defense One, in re: "Deconflicting" – Pentagon and Josh Earnest – means that the US wants to know what aircraft the Russians are using, and where, to avoid accidentally bumping into each other – that is, the US wants to know the Russian game plan.  Russians looking for the Tow Missiles used against armor units, and successfully.  There's no ISIS near where Russia is attacking, Pentagon declines to say if those whom Russia targets are people whom the US has trained. Russia is making the Pentagon look really foolish. Note that Iran has fought against ISIS for more than a year.  Russia "doesn't know "who's actually being struck" – battle-damage assessment is hard because there's so much rubble all over after so much war.  http://www.defenseone.com/news/2015/10/us-russia-discussing-deconfliction-syria-one-day-after-russian-strikes-begin/122459/?oref=d-river
Thursday  1 October 2015 / Hour 1, Block C: Eli Lake, Bloomberg, in re: Afghanistan: Taliban took Kunduz city. Because of the overall force reduction, starting in 2013, the special forces with expertise in fighting with locals have been withdraw, Since August 2013 when the Americans left the Kunduz police force, the latter turned into overt bandit, which the Taliban seized on to their advantage. Larger question: Pres Obama at the UN bragging that "we've learned the hard way about the limits of American military power" – at the same time, Taliban are taking over a major city and the whole country is teetering. Libya is in anarchy. Consider Syria and Iraq – solving those is too hard; they're fundamentally broken societies. Unable to solve entirely does not mean "do nothing"! Little-boy sex slaves on US bases with Afghan "allies."  Local forces not effective. US is spending at least $110 billion right now.  Afghanistan had elections; have a Kabul govt that's not Taliban.  These constitute a success . . .  Think of Yemen as another civil war; are these decisions made specifically by the Obama Adm to pull out (and create the conditions of collapses)?  --In Iraq, this Adm has not done the preparatory work needed.  Libya, Syria, Iraq, Kunduz . . . http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-09-30/crisis-looms-for-refugees-taken-in-by-iraq-s-kurds ; http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-10-01/obama-s-self-fulfilling-prophecy-in-afghanistan
Thursday  1 October 2015 / Hour 1, Block D: Victor Davis Hanson, Hoover, in re:  Fear of the demos - the people, the mob – translates into fear of demagogue. A bit like the French revolution, where he American revolution checked some of these excesses. The Spartan constitution is very different from the Athenian way. "I have a pen and a phone" -  nullification based on his popular perception of what he can get away with (Lois Lerner and the IRS, and the many other instances).  Pen and phone refer to Executive fiat – dangerous, like Juan Peron or even Hitler; scary, as you whip up popular opinion, which becomes more important than constitutional order. US is now subject to the interconnected, global, wired demos. 
Unsustainable. Yet we are becoming more like the Athenian mob than the Roman Senate. American law has become negotiable and subject to revolutionary justice, while technology has developed the power to inflame 300 million individuals in a nanosecond. Without strict adherence to republican government and the protections of the Constitution, the mob will rule—and any American will become subject to its sudden wrath.  http://www.hoover.org/research/mob-coming-you
 
Hour Two
Thursday  1 October 2015 / Hour 2, Block A: Jerry Hendrix, Center for a New American Security, in re: US still thinks that the defense of the US is a Ford-class carrier - a supercarrier ($12.8 Billion); Arleigh Burke class; a dozen frigates; the new Ohio-class sub replacement; the issue is that he carrier is expensive and vulnerable as Russia and China use anti access; but the carrier used to be able to go very long distances and have deep strike, but now only short range because of the Hornets, which go only 500 mi.  Near the Suez Canal, federal w high-performance aircraft that Russia has n Syria? Nope – four years away; these days, the older Nimitz-class, reliable, but not to deal with advanced Russian fighters and other sophisticated missiles.  Aircraft carrier is intimidating, but during actual fight, carrier is vulnerable.  Might use SSGNs, guided Tomahawk missiles  to prepare and envt for a carrier to operate. When you spend $15 bil on an asset you expect to use it when you want – but it carries 4,800 Americans, and can be lost. Some Euro nations will let SU flu out of them; and others, not. Smarter to put conventional missiles on conventional ships . . .
Thursday  1 October 2015 / Hour 2, Block B: Michael Pregent, WSJ, & US Army intell (ret) and visiting Fellow at National Defense University, in re:  The road ahead in fighting ISIS: Obama uses B1 bombers high overhead.  Ineffective.  ISIS is in Syrian and Iraqi civil wars.   US is already in Iraq – ineffective – so we say train Sunnis to fight ISIS.  By now, I don't believe we could train te right Sunnis by going through Baghdad – need to do it without Baghdad interference . US law: any money that the US gives Baghdad must not find its way into terrorist organizations  - which it most emphatically is doing,  We could go to Kurdish region, train them to re-take Mosul.  We've demonstrated how effective US forces can be in Kurdish region – Anbar, Baghdad and Erbil – need to move US forces out of the first two.  We saw an effort of Shia to move into Tikrit, did so only with IUS help. Shia militias not willing to die in ISIS territories.  Russians and Iranians not interested in getting rid of ISIS.  Russia has set up an intell cell in Baghdad, will be conducting airstrikes in Iraq in 60 days; don't much care where it targets. . . .  Can replicate strategy in Ramadi and Fallujah . . . US has no leverage in Baghdad; re=establish with Shia and Sunni nationalists to pressure Baghdad to look Westward, not to Russia.
How Obama Could Salvage His Hapless ISIS Strategy Sunni Arabs, trained by the U.S. in the Kurdish region of Iraq, could form an effective fighting force. By Max Boot & Michael Pregent. Even as Russia launched airstrikes Wednesday against rebel forces in Syria, Obama administration officials and U.S. military leaders claim that the campaign against Islamic State is working. The facts suggest otherwise.
Commanders can point to more than 22,000 sorties flown by U.S. aircraft over Iraq and Syria since the campaign began in August 2014. But fewer than one-third of those flights have dropped bombs. That’s because no U.S. air controllers are allowed on the ground to call in targets. In Afghanistan in 2001, where such controllers were present, the U.S. averaged 86 strike sorties a day; in Iraq in 2003, 596; in Libya in 2011, 46. In Iraq and Syria today, there are on average 11 strike sorties a day. U.S. Central Command, which is accused by its own intelligence analysts of skewing intelligence, claims that between August 2014 and April 2015, Islamic State, also known as ISIS, “can no longer operate freely in roughly 25 to 30 percent of populated areas of Iraqi territory where it once could.” Note the timing of that assessment: It was delivered before Ramadi, the capital of Anbar province, and Palmyra, an ancient city in central Syria, fell to ISIS in May.
It’s true that in the past year ISIS lost control of the Iraqi town of Tikrit and of some territory in northern Syria, notably the border town of Kobani. But Iraqi forces have made no progress in taking back the far more important cities of Fallujah, Ramadi or Mosul. Much of eastern Syria remains securely in the hands of ISIS. And now ISIS is claiming “provinces” as far away as Libya and Afghanistan. Central Command says its military operations have killed more than 12,000 ISIS fighters. Yet assessments of ISIS’s overall strength, at 20,000 to 30,000 fighters, remain unchanged, because more than 1,000 foreign fighters a month are joining ISIS, more than making up for its losses.
ISIS is not invincible. Whenever it has run into a disciplined military force supported by U.S. air power, as in Kobani or Tikrit, it has been defeated. The problem is that the U.S. has neither put enough of its own forces on the ground (only 3,000 in noncombat roles in Iraq) nor succeeded in training enough indigenous personnel. On Sept. 16, Gen. Lloyd Austin, head of Central Command, told Congress that, incredibly, there are only “four or five” American-trained rebel fighters currently fighting in Syria. The training program is falling short of expectations because the U.S. has done a poor job of providing incentives for Sunnis to fight ISIS. Both Baghdad and Damascus are dominated by Iran and its murderous proxies such as Hezbollah and the Badr Corps—groups that make many Sunnis see ISIS as the lesser evil. Yet the U.S. insists that Syrian fighters battle only ISIS, not dictator Bashar Assad ’s forces or Iran’s proxies, and that Iraqi fighters subordinate themselves to an Iranian-dominated chain of command. At the same time, by providing money and arms to the Baghdad government, the U.S. is subsidizing the Iranian takeover of substantial portions of Iraq. Iraq has even joined a new pact with Russia, Syria and Iran intended to keep Mr. Assad in power under the guise of fighting ISIS. Russia’s role—and its warplanes above Syrian territory—further marginalizes U.S. influence.
Maybe it’s time for a different approach.
Washington could announce that as long as the government in Baghdad continues to pursue a sectarian strategy in cooperation with Iranian-backed terrorist groups such as Kataib Hezbollah and Asaib Ahl al-Haq it will no longer receive U.S. support. Central Command could then relocate U.S. personnel to the Kurdish north, a relatively safe area where they can train a nonsectarian force to take back Mosul. This force would be composed primarily of Sunni Arabs, many of whom are already refugees in the Kurdish region, because only Arabs can take and hold Arab areas. Considering how few ISIS fighters are holding Mosul (we estimate 3,000 to 6,000 men), a force of 30,000 Sunni soldiers assisted by U.S. air power and embedded American advisers should be enough for “clear and hold” operations.
Once Mosul is taken, a new Sunni force could be trained to take back Anbar province. If a Sunni revolt against ISIS has success in Iraq, it will shatter that organization’s aura of invincibility and likely spread across the border. And if the U.S. is willing to fight against the Assad regime as well as ISIS, Syrian rebels will be more likely to sign up for training in newly liberated parts of Iraq. This is admittedly a risky strategy that runs the danger of strengthening Iran’s hold over Baghdad in the short run. But Iran is already the dominant player in Baghdad. It is just possible that if the U.S. were to show that it’s not wedded to supporting the existing power brokers in Baghdad, they may take the hard steps necessary to accommodate Sunnis. The anti-ISIS campaign has no hope of success as long as Sunnis refuse to mobilize en masse. The strategy we propose offers a way to achieve that goal. The current approach doesn’t. Mr. Boot, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, is the author of Invisible Armies (Liveright, 2013). Mr. Pregent, a retired U.S. Army intelligence officer, is a visiting Fellow at National Defense University.
Thursday  1 October 2015 / Hour 2, Block C:  Lou Ann Hammond, Driving the Nation, in re: Porsche, Volkswagen and Audi: made promises to customers, dealers, and the market; the market is now punishing WVW for its mendacity.  Winterkorn still holds four major positions in the corporations. Will leave with either $25 million or $60 million.  They did meet the requirements for CARB (California Air Res0urces Board; created by Ronald Reagan) (California is 12% of US sales) emissions and performance -  but they put in software so that every time is was on a dyno test, the numbers got beautiful. However, immediately after, the emissions were 10 to 40 times greater than suppose to be.  Yup, 'twas intentionally illegal.
VW fix would have cost $335 per vehicle In one fell swoop, (now former) CEO Martin Winterkorn and the VW Group have tarnished ... ; 1.2m UK vehicles affected in VW scandal ; VW's legal nightmare is about to get worse  In one fell swoop, (now former) CEO Martin Winterkorn and the VW Group have tarnished ... ; 1.2m UK vehicles affected in VW scandal
Thursday  1 October 2015 / Hour 2, Block D:  Dan Henninger, WSJ editorial, in re: http://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-odd-man-out-1443656653 I argue that you win elections at the margins. The businessman from New York may not be able to do that.  A pollster, Doug Rivers, says that Trump's numbers in August were blazing hot as he took numbers from other candidates; as he comes back into the pack, he's hit an upper limit.  . . .  I give him credit for being alert to and addressing the deep concerns of many voters. "No battle plan survives contact with the enemy" – Mr Trump may not be well-positioned to deal with Vl. Putin. Not a foreign-policy specialist, he may find himself "above his pay grade" vis-à-vis the current crisis.
 
Hour Three
Thursday  1 October 2015 / Hour 3, Block A:  Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re: Netanyahu Rebukes UN over Iran Accord Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday delivered a . . .  / Russia bombs the anti-Assad troops, much irritating Washington.  Syrian civil war is far more dangerous than it was even a week ago.  Malcolm was just in the Golan at the Syrian border, saw the smoke of Damascus. Can watch the movements of al Nusrah, IRGC, Russian tank that'd been captured. Russian involvement has emboldened all the forces.   rebels attacking Russian sites, incl at Latakia.  NW Syria: Russians focusing on Idlib and Hama to relieve pressure on Aleppo. The billions that Ian will get from lifting sanctions going into buying Sukhois and tanks, armor-piercing shells for the Houthis in Yemen – many kinds if materiel. China docked an aircraft carrier at Tartus port in support of the Russians. Fighting at Kuneitra, near Israeli border. Lawfare in Europe:  origin of goods must be labelled in order specifically to discriminate against Israel. As for ten years in the Iran deal, we're a lot closer than ten years to a vast Middle East collapse.  Russia has limited economic purchase; it's the Iranians who are getting a windfall that will destabilize the whole region, in ways we can't even see now.
Thursday  1 October 2015 / Hour 3, Block B: Josh Rogin,  BloombergView, in re: Amb Rath, advocating on behalf of victims of Syrian atrocities: any official abetting war crimes is also complicit and vulnerable to the same prosecution. Intl Assn of Genocide Scholars. . . .
Thursday  1 October 2015 / Hour 3, Block C: Tyler Rogoway, FoxtrotAlpha, in re: Russia Begins Bombing Operations In Syria as a Bigger Strategic Picture Emerges (1 of 2)
Thursday  1 October 2015 / Hour 3, Block D: Tyler Rogoway, FoxtrotAlpha, in re: U.S. and China Agree to Rules for Air-to-Air Intercepts ; Hawaii Air Guard F-22s Deploy to the Middle East as Tensions with Russia Broil (2 of 2)
 
Hour Four
Thursday  1 October 2015 / Hour 4, Block A: Richard A Epstein, Chicago Law, NYU Law, Hoover, in re: The Cardinal Sins of Pope Francis (1 of 2)
Thursday  1 October 2015 / Hour 4, Block B: Richard A Epstein, Chicago Law, NYU Law, Hoover, in re: The Cardinal Sins of Pope Francis (2 of 2)
Thursday  1 October 2015 / Hour 4, Block C:  Pastor William Devlin, Infinity Bible Church and REDEEM!, in re: his current visit to Cuba to minster to Christians in Holguín. Cuba and the Pope: has generated an interest in Catholicism in he region; people still living with little Internet, most y dial-up.
Thursday  1 October 2015 / Hour 4, Block D:  John Markoff, NYT, in re: ROBOTS -  Software Is Smart Enough for SAT, but Still Far from Intelligent  In a first, an artificial intelligence program answered math questions on the SAT by understanding diagrams and sentences, but scientists say machine thinking is still a long way off.