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JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-host: Thaddeus McCotter, WJR, The Great Voice of the Great Lakes; and author, Liberty Risen
Hour One
Monday  8 June 2015  / Hour 1, Block A: Thomas Joscelyn, Long War Journal senior editor, & Bill Roggio, Long War Journal and FDD, in re:   SWAG – stupid, wild, a guess – the Pentagon is desperate to show any measure of success anent ISIS and Palmyra. Let's pretend that 10,000 ISIS fighters were killed. Last summer, Pentagon said 10K, then later 20-30K ISIS  fighters were killed. Does that mean we killed one-third to one-half of ISIS fighters?  How'd the Iraqis, Kurds, and a dozen Islamist rivals, all manage to be defeated?  ISIS has a whole lot more than 50K fighters plus combat support.  Number of foreigners in al Nusra: 3 of 10 are  ____. Al Nusrah is a Syrian phenomenon.   . . . 
US claims 10,000 Islamic State fighters killed since start of air campaign   THREAT MATRIX  / The Al Nusrah Front’s ‘inherited jihad’  Al Jazeera aired the second part of its interview with Abu Muhammad al Julani earlier this week. Julani again made it clear that Al Nusrah is a part of al Qaeda and referenced Ayman al Zawahiri's "directives" following the beginning of the Arab revolutions in late 2010 and early 2011.
Monday  8 June 2015  / Hour 1, Block B: Thomas Joscelyn, Long War Journal senior editor, & Bill Roggio, Long War Journal and FDD, in re:  Islamic scholars have issued fatwahs saying it’s the duty of Muslims to push back against ISIS. Levant Front is firmly against  the Islamic State, basically an ally of al Nusrah.  Groups preying on each other inside a failed state. No sign of the Alawite army, so this is a vast landscape of gang warfare. English-language vid showing fighters coming from the Balkans.   Also Uyghurs, England, France, Holland, et al.   Multiple audiences: ISIS calls itself a caliphate, so much appear to be an ever-expanding territorial menace.
Monday  8 June 2015  / Hour 1, Block C: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com, in re: China's May trade numbers: imports down 17+%, exports down 5% - which is bad for this tie of year. China's consumption story cannot be good if imports are falling.  Suggests something seriously wrong.  National statistics from the govt do not match up.  HSBC PMI has been negative for months, Note sub-indices:  Canton trade fair orders fell 9.6% from last year – not a good Christmas. Lat year, $343 billion – 90+% of China's foreign income.   SecDef Ash Carter just returned from Asia trip; Vietnam played Stars d Stripes for him.  Ctr for Intl Studies: a defense alliance US-Vietnam?  They want to cozy up to US and India at the same time.   Since the US has a defense treaty with Philippines, China will probably pick on its ancient enemy, Vietnam.  India was long nonaligned, but growing much closer to the US. Japan speaks of the Security Diamond:   India, Japan. US, Australia.  . . .  China is pushing so hard with cyberattacks (Soc Sec nos of 4 million Americans) plus a lot of military aggression, the 2016 US election may turn on foreign policy.
Monday  8 June 2015  / Hour 1, Block D: Sarah Westwood,  Washington Examiner, in re: The missing temporary-IG report on the Clinton Foundation: watchdog was Harold Geisel, 2008 – 2013; top officials were interfering. Mrs Clinton's security detail: removed was info abt one ambassador, where officials prevented looking into pedophilia reports, and soliciting prostitutes while on official duty. Covered up by top State staff.  Acting IGs are deeply affected by political winds. State was poorly led, poor accountability and leadership. People took guns to the elevator bank: investigators located in the same office as the officials who were investigating  Then the officials would go on leave, return with guns – and terrify the investigators. This info was removed from the final draft. Last time we saw this sort of thing was at USAID – grave charges against IG, for covering up, and he quit right away. As soon as Clinton left, a permanent IG was installed. Even the madly-reacted draft caused a furor: "undue influence" sent the Senate looking. Lawsuit by Citizens United.
State dept. ignores lawsuit over records linking Boko Haram, Clinton Foundation http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/article/2565784
Hour Two
Monday  8 June 2015  / Hour 2, Block A:  John Fund, National Review Online, & David M Drucker, Washington Examiner Senior Congressional correspondent, in re:   The Electoral College means that you need 270 votes. It; snot a philosophical contest; it's 270.  Mrs C's excited language in Ohio plus Ohio election laws.   She waves the bloody short of voter suppression and claims Jim Crow voter suppression, She proposes that the federal govt override all state laws.  She fears that her voters will stay home unless she increases the voter turnout with wild speech.  She'll run the same base election that Obama used; never move to the center. Both parties questioning if they can go to the center in view of how divided we all are.  Ohio, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, all have Republican governors; is Mrs Clinton [fighting a tide?]  These states are purple; to keep the base and turn it out may need sacrificing the center.  Mr Obama was a phenom, incl getting a pass from the media; but Mrs Clinton will not get the same level of pass.  "Voter suppression" sounds like an old theme.  You don't embark on this unless you think it's your best shot.  For Mrs C, it's about getting to the finish line, This has proven successful in the past. JB: In 1994 I was on a book tour, in Phila just before the election; journos said, "Dems will win by a squeaker." I learned that  you win big or not a all.
Mrs Clinton counts to 270 the hard way:  http://www.nationalreview.com/article/419432/hillarys-divisive-reckless-... /  GOP counts to a dozen candidates / Scott Walker lowers the bar:  http://www.nationalreview.com/article/419444/walkers-iowa-expectations-g... /Jeb Bush prepares to fight:  http://www.nationalreview.com/article/419440/jebs-joyful-campaign-gets-r... /  What passes for Rubio oppo: Marco Rubio: 4 tickets 'not that many,' red light cameras a 'scam'   (1  of 2)
Monday  8 June 2015  / Hour 2, Block B: John Fund, National Review Online, & David M Drucker, Washington Examiner Senior Congressional correspondent (2 of 2) Scott Walker  - David's wife advises him on fundraising - . . .   Marco Rubio: The rally took to him, showed up early and lingered late; "I don't know much about him but I really like his message" they said in Iowa. They also liked Jeb Bush.  Also, maybe Carly Fiorina rises to Ticket No. 4.    –Cd be Cruz or Ben Carson.  Iowa isn’t a vote, it's a scrum in living rooms.   TGM: I mourn the passing of the Iowa straw poll; it was wonderful theater.   . . .  Evangelical ticket ? Could be. Bearish on Santorum and Huckabee.  Fourth ticket might be to Rand Paul because he has enough of a base that's [screamingly] committed.
Monday  8 June 2015  / Hour 2, Block C: Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re: Iran – 30 June pencilled in; Tony Blinken of State, Jack Lew of Treasury: suggesting there's substance in Iran deal, but no info recommending that. Nothing ding,  Messrs Blinken and Lew represent what?  A poker hand?  Jack Lew at yesterday's JPost conference; Mr Blinken  . . .Euros refuse a deal without  __. Senate voted in favor of possible sanctions for ten more years – while Iran is firing on ships.  Pres Obama spoke on Israeli TV.  Olli Heinonen: If Ian isn't cheating today, it'll be the first time in 20 years.  An official said, "In ten years, Khamenei will leave, anything can happen." Snap-back on sanctions is physically impossible.  / Orange Group head in Cairo said it'd boycott Israel – then said it wouldn’t . Orange is deeply involved in Israel. Apparently it succumbed to French NGOs. [See: Catch a Jew, by Tuvia Tenenbom, on NGOs in politics in the Middle East.]  Effort to delegitimize Israel as an existing state.  South Carolina is the first state to prevent BDS; other US states now joining.   Recrudescent anti-Semitism in Europe When the French ambassador tweeted a justification of Orange boycott – at its core, this is specifically anti-Jewish. Meanwhile, Egypt is deeply aligned with Israel on many matters.  / A family had a son born 12 years ago in Jerusalem; put, Jerusalem, Israel: in the child's passport.  State refused, took the case to the Supreme Court. Supreme Court voted 6-3 in favor of this president.  Chief Justice dissented: Legislative branch is supposed to be co-equal in power with the Executive.
Monday  8 June 2015  / Hour 2, Block D: Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re: Cairo, ISIS. Gaza (water). Egyptians have demanded of the US ambassador explanation for Pres Obama's invitation of the Muslim Brotherhood to the State Dept by  WHie House officials.  Then the WH criticized he Sisi govt.  [What??]  TGM: WH throwing a tantrum because its favored party lost the election.   JB:  MB undermined Egyptian democracy and economy; still fight against the police; and are active not only in Egypt. MH: Yes, Israel has a strategy  against ISIS on the Golan Heights.  At present, al Nusrah alQ-affiliated) is the worrisome group.  Hezbollah is busy putting out fires elsewhere.  / Gaza; four rockets this week – seems to be the Islamic State in Jerusalem (actually in Gaza); arrested some Sufis; today had the first firefight between IS and Hamas.  Hamas kept sending messages to Israel: "It ain't us."
Mr. Obama has succeeded so far in tamping down opposition in Congress and among America’s Middle East allies to allow negotiations to proceed. The key details still left to be resolved by a June 30 deadline, particularly on inspections, sanctions relief and future nuclear abilities, will determine whether the president is able to maintain that dynamic in the event of a final deal.
“The remaining details could easily be determinative in terms of giving either potential supporters a good reason to vote to sustain the agreement or giving the opposition a much stronger argument for opposing it,” said Gary Samore, a nuclear expert at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs who was the top nonproliferation official in Mr. Obama’s first term, during an event Wednesday at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. “These last remaining issues are not just marginal, technical details for the nuclear geeks. I think they have important political ramifications,” Mr. Samore said.
Opposition in Congress would be the initial challenge for the White House, as lawmakers will have time to review and vote on a final deal. In the longer term, potential troubles with Iran’s implementation of the terms of an agreement and longtime geopolitical tensions in the region could put a deal in jeopardy. New questions arose this week about whether Iran would comply with the kind of strict terms Mr. Obama has said he would only accept as part of a final deal. A report by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, found Iran had increased its stockpile of low enriched nuclear fuel by roughly 20% during negotiations with the U.S. and other world powers.
Administration officials said the issue doesn’t threaten to imperil efforts to reach a final deal and that Iran hasn’t violated the interim agreement that is in effect until June 30. But the report has stoked fears among skeptics of a deal. “The question is are they doing this to put themselves in a better negotiating position by growing this stockpile while negotiations are underway, or are they not going to live by it,” Sen. Bob Corker (R., Tenn.), the chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, said Wednesday on CNN. Mr. Corker said he hopes a final deal would hold off any sanctions relief until Iran complies with the requirements for reducing its stockpile.
Mr. Obama also faces a challenge during the implementation of a final deal in easing anxiety among Iran’s neighbors that an agreement empowers Tehran. Any flare up in regional tensions could, for instance, elicit action from Congress, such as additional sanctions, and then prompt Iran’s leadership to back out of the terms of a deal.
“As a complement to the deal, there has to be a U.S. strategy for the region that is designed to deal with Iran’s destabilizing activities,” Martin Indyk, executive vice president of Brookings Institution, said during a Senate hearing Wednesday. Top US official says Iran has met interim obligations / Deputy secretary of state tells Jewish group that many concerns about the emerging nuclear deal are ‘more myth than fact’
He spoke out against the detractors of the potential deal, saying that “many concerns are simply misplaced and are more myth than fact,” listing among those the expiration or “sunset clause” for nuclear oversight. “The deal will not expire and there will not be a so-called sunset,” Blinken stressed, explaining that the monitoring of nuclear access and protocols and Iran’s obligations to uphold all of the terms of the Non-Proliferation Treaty would remain in perpetuity. In contrast, he warned, “if we don’t get a deal, the provisions of the Joint Plan of Action will sunset immediately.”
Blinken argued that “there is simply no better option for preventing Iran from obtaining the material for a nuclear bomb” than the current course of action taken by the P5+1 negotiating states.  Israel was always a uniting factor in Jewish life; it has become a divisive factor'   /  Lord Sacks: BDS makes it ‘almost impossible’ for Europe’s Jews to support Israel  / The boycott, divestment and sanctions campaign has succeeded in dividing Diaspora Jewry, warns UK’s former chief rabbi in bleak address
Hour Three
Monday  8 June 2015  / Hour 3, Block A: Clair MacDougall, West Africa correspondent, in re:
Monday  8 June 2015  / Hour 3, Block B: Jed Babbin, American Spectator, in re:
Monday  8 June 2015  / Hour 3, Block C:  Gregory Copley, StrategicStudies director; GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs; & author, UnCivilization, in re:
Monday  8 June 2015  / Hour 3, Block D: Gregory Copley, StrategicStudies director; GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs; & author, UnCivilization, in re:
 
Hour Four
Monday  8 June 2015  / Hour 4, Block A: Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal editorial board & host of OpinionJournal.com; in re:
Monday  8 June 2015  / Hour 4, Block B: Michael Ledeen, FDD, in re:
Monday  8 June 2015  / Hour 4, Block C:  Larry Johnson, NoQuarter, in re:
Monday  8 June 2015  / Hour 4, Block D:   Herb Lin, Hoover, in re:
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