The John Batchelor Show

Monday 18 May 2015

Air Date: 
May 18, 2015

Photo, left: 
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-host: Thaddeus McCotter, WJR, The Great Voice of the Great Lakes; and author, Liberty Risen.
Hour One
Monday  18 May 2015 / Hour 1, Block A: Bill Roggio, Long War Journal and FDD, & Thomas Joscelyn, Long War Journal senior editor, in re:  ISIS takes over Ramadi in Western Iraq.  Iraqi army ran away from Camp Ar-Ramadi – over the course of days, 10 to 15 suicide bombers every day. When the Iraqis see a truck loaded with explosives coming toward them, they run. This is like having Fort Bragg fall.  Idlib graduation: the athleticism of young men (motif of diving through burning tires; reminiscent of al Q vids from the 19990s – a sort of homage); want to show that their ranks are swelling – after Idlib fell to the jihadists . . .  al Nusrah has been organizing the anti-Assad forces in the south.  Upwards of 300 fighters here.  Conquest of Idlib: ISIS says, we'll go at it ourselves, swear allegiance to us; whereas al Nusrah does the opposite, more heavily invested in the anti-Assad rebellion & pool resources.  Al Nusrah trying to inculcate its ideology in Syrian people – dangerous in the long run; absent a counternarrative explaining this is insidious and evil, will be a long-term problem. Note that many Syrians hate ISIS but not al Nusrah.
Monday  18 May 2015 / Hour 1, Block B: Bill Roggio, Long War Journal and FDD, & Thomas Joscelyn, Long War Journal senior editor, in re: the general who made the statements is COS of Operation _ Resolve 0 he shd really understand what's happening on the ground; all three need to have  firm group in reality and know how badly the Iraqi foes are performing.  The same day that Ramadi is falling the general is telling us how great he air campaign coordination is.  It's stunning.  ISIS fighting in Fallujah at he same time. Is he believing everything the Iraqi news s putting out. Looks like a general is trying to spin a best-case scenario – don't want to say why; if this is what he believes, he needs to get a new career.  If US intell is this awful, we have no biz sending air strikes there, but I don't believe that.  This guy was in al Q for 17 years; it's hiding ht depth of its bench, Further, he'd been clandestinely put in Arar al Sham, which was co-founded by te most senior leader in the Levant; gives al Q a clandestine influence in this group, and it receives assistance fro various regional state actors.  Hate to toot our horn, but LWJ broke a lot f this info. . . .
Monday  18 May 2015 / Hour 1, Block C: Victor Davis Hanson, Hoover, in re:
Monday  18 May 2015 / Hour 1, Block D:  Gordon Chang, Forbes.com, in re:
Hour Two
Monday  18 May 2015 / Hour 2, Block A:  David M Drucker, Washington Examiner Senior Congressional correspondent, in re:  Republicans mired in defending 2003 W decision to invade Iraq. The issue is: hat wd you do anent a rogue regime with WMD – e.g., Iran – and . . .   your national security policy.  Can tey get themselves into today's news – the immediate loss of Ramadi as the entire Iraqi army bugged out in terror.   What to do next?  Almost every Republican has said that the surge was successful that Pres Bush handed Pres Obama a fairly stable Iraq, certainly not in a power vacuum.  Imagine: ISIS wants Baghdad, but first will accept 200 Americans in orange jumpsuits.  . . .  Antidote is to reverse Obama's course and reassert US strength there. This could take a lot of twists and turns.   Anyone electd to the presidency wil fae horrific life-and-death decisions.  These are real-time polic; I don't think the GOP are playing at hat level yet, not in office in their own heads.  I disagree; their main msg is, let's not telegraph our intentions to the enemy. 
Monday  18 May 2015 / Hour 2, Block B:  Michael Ledeen, FDD, in re: Operation Torch, where Gen Eisenhower was playing bridge as the operation was successful.  . . . In bridge, you se e only a quarter of reality, your own 13 cards, and you have to deduce what the others have. This is the fog of war.  In the 1940s, bridge was extremely important for the American elite.  It's highly regrettable that this country is losing these skills. [Bluff] Passing info to the table. Constantly making decisions: if you tell the truth to your partner, your enemies may use it; but if you lie to your opponents, your partner may be deceived.
Monday  18 May 2015 / Hour 2, Block C:  Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re: The Iran deal – this Administration continues to speak about it in all his interviews; it's at a technical stage so DOE people are carrying out the talks. Note that Rob Malley of NSC said that they cant deal with any regional issue unless Iran is at the table,  Note that it's destabilizing the region, committing human right disaster, and the like. . . They seem t be running around everywhere gathering flowers, casing rabbits. Is this Administration in charge?  They'd better be – there's no one else.   IAEA says nothing in the deal will allow for sites inspections – the critical issue in the whole deal.  Three thousand Shia fighters are in Anbar, will try to take over cities and put Iran in charge Unfortunately the West doesn’t seem to be on top of this.   . . . They probe the West to  fid weaknesses, incl Golan, and weapons to have Hezbollah achieve naval capacity IDF is responding with everything form jetskis to frog boats.  Yesterday intercepted 40 diving suit intended for Hamas.    Eliahu Cohen, b in Egypt; in his mid-thirties moved to Israel, jointed intell, moved to Argentine, then Damascus, rented an apt next to the Syrian general HQ, joined their social circles.  Also got them to plant tree around Golan army bases, nominally for protection, in fact so the Israeli air force could identify them.  . . . Syria is now divided, will never come together again. 
Operated as Kamal Amin a-Tabvbah/  Hanged after a five-month trial. This is the fiftieth anniversary of his death.
Monday  18 May 2015 / Hour 2, Block D: Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re: Vote at state capitol in in Springfield, IL, 49-0, adopting legislation opposing BDS. Federica Mogherini, Euro dip.  Vatican recognizes Palestine as a state; His Holiness asked Pres Abbas please to act as a prince of peace. Palestinian Authority's strategy is to get lots of states to bypass normal process.  /  Gaza: al Arabiya; Pres Obama's ambition is to have the PA take over from Hamas (although Hamas is fighting ISIS inside Gaza; and al Sisi is fighting ISIS).    Gaza is a stew of killers, an arsenal waiting t fire again. US doesn’t want to get directly involved; neither does al Sisi. Maybe Pres Abbas (?) wants to have hardships in Gaza make it available for him to take over.   GCC no longer listens the White House neither does the Saudi regime.  Those who still listen do so to serve their own purposes.  Across the Middle East: Pres Obama abandoned all his allies so is said not to be trusted by allies and enemies, alike. Jerusalem Day: anniversary of 1967 liberation, much celebrated, reminded us of its significance to Jews, Christians.
Hour Three
Monday  18 May 2015 / Hour 3, Block A:  Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal editorial board & host of OpinionJournal.com; in re: George Stephanopolis's gaffe, to put it charitably – no remorse, and apparent incomprehension of the significant ethical matters.
Monday  18 May 2015 / Hour 3, Block B:  Jed Babbin, American Spectator & Epoch Times, in re: The death penalty: in war killing the enemy is never questioned, in peace executing civilians can be morally questionable. In Tsarnaev's case, it's justice.   . . .  Why the current reluctance by the US to kill enemies? . . . The question is, would you kill the enemy's commander? . . .  (In Egypt) Morsi is a national security threat to Egypt.   . . . ISIS near-conquest of Iraq: save Iraq?  Pres Obama said that'd be a good idea, but his tepid conduct is  amazing, Hearkens back to what Bob Gates wrote of him his memoir: "Obama doesn’t like or trust his general, the strategy or the war, but he'll go ahead anyway" to kick the can past 2017. 
Monday  18 May 2015 / Hour 3, Block C:  Michael Pregent, Daily Beast, in re:  Why does Baghdad let ISIS keep winning? The 3000 killed in Habaniya: Tikrit was a mobilizing call; 1700 cadets slaughtered by ISIS. Ramadi is strategically much more important ; and Baghdad allowed this city to fall after having been warned for 18 months.   . . .Massacre in al Anbar by ISIS: shot 200 in the head; Shia militias cheered the fact that ISISI was killing other Sunnis. 
Monday  18 May 2015 / Hour 3, Block D:   Robert Zimmerman, behindtheblack.com, in re: Engine failure for Japan’s Procyon probe  The failure of the ion engine of an experimental cubesat called Procyon, launched with Hayabusa-2 to test small satellite technologies, has forced engineers to cancel their attempt to have the probe fly past a different asteroid.  They think dust in the engine caused a short circuit.   New Horizons spots all of Pluto’s 5 known moons  New Horizons has now been able to image all of Pluto’s known moons. Pluto’s five known satellites are Charon, Hydra, Nix, Kerberos and Styx. At 648 miles (1,043 km) in diameter, Charon is nearly half as wide as Pluto itself, but the other four moons are minuscule. Kerberos and Styx, for example, are thought to be just 4 to 13 miles (7 to 21 km) and 6 to 20 miles (10 to 32 km) wide, respectively.  That the spacecraft has been able to spot them all this soon bodes well for what it will see when if flies past Pluto in July
Hour Four
Monday  18 May 2015 / Hour 4, Block A:  Seb Gorka, Marine Corps University & Breitbart, in re: The adolescent brain defense: The Tsarnaev death sentence and ...  Last Friday, Dzohkar Tsarnaev was sentenced to death on six of 17 capital ... This would mean that punishment, let alone the death penalty, ...  Criminally Yours: The Death Penalty for Dzhokhar Tsarnaev
Monday  18 May 2015 / Hour 4, Block B: Rachel Roubein, National Journal, in re: Not-So-Basic-Traning: Inside the Replica of the U.S. Capitol in Maryland" A Secret Service request for a fake White House prompts a visit to the fake Capitol. FULL STORY
Monday  18 May 2015 / Hour 4, Block C:  Robert M Cutler, EURAsiansecurity.com and Carleton University, in re: New Eastring pipeline project seeks to supply Southeastern Europe. A recent evaluation of prospects for a revival of the Nabucco West pipeline concludes that it is not feasible in the absence of a Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline (TCGP) carrying gas from Turkmenistan, presumably crossing Asia Minor through TANAP. To this it may be added that the Nabucco consortium was closed down when the Shah Deniz consortium chose the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) over Nabucco West, and that its former members have gone on to other things. Further, Baku has already guaranteed the supply of 20 billion cubic meters per year (bcm/y) of natural gas for the foreseeable future, in the event of the doubling of TAP’s capacity to that level. [more] BLACK SEA BASIN, CENTRAL EUROPE, EASTERN EUROPE, GAS/CNG/LNG, PIPELINES, SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE, SOUTHERN GAS CORRIDOR
Monday  18 May 2015 / Hour 4, Block D: Peter Berkowitz, Real Clear Politics & Hoover, in re: The Left's Crusade Against Free Speech