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JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-host: Thaddeus McCotter, WJR, The Great Voice of the Great Lakes
 
Hour One
Monday 1 August 2016 / Hour 1, Block A: Tom Joscelyn, Long War Journal senior editor & FDD,  and Bill Roggio, Long War Journal senior editor  & FDD, in re: Al Jilani, head of al Nusrah (al Qaeda in Syria) announced that his group no longer was called al Nusrah (now is ____) and no longer had any connection to external entities.  AL Qaeda has senior leaders inside Syria, thus Jilani can pretend he’s not connected to al Q. Story: al Q has been trying ab initio to take over Syrian control for Assad; similar outcome  to IS but different process.  Al Nusrah wants to be seen as a popular domestic force, so rebrand themselves as “true insurgents.”   All consistent with Zawahiri since 2013.   Jilani suddenly was dressed same as Osama bin Laden. And to his right was an Egyptian who's served al Q leadership for years, and a similar guy on his left. 
Meanwhile, US launches air strikes on Sirte in Libya.  Recall French special forces killed there last week.  Who's providing the info? Might be CIA or US special ops . . .   On the map: to the right:  Cyrenaica province; to the left: Tripolitania.
Transcript of Abu Muhammad al Julani’s speech   THREAT MATRIX  A transcript of Abu Muhammad al Julani's remarks yesterday shows that his statement has been misconstrued in the press.
Analysis: Al Nusrah Front rebrands itself as Jabhat Fath Al Sham  Abu Muhammad al Julani announced that Al Nusrah Front has been rebranded as Jabhat Fath Al Sham. Many have read into Julani's statement as a formal disassociation with al Qaeda. But Julani didn't actually say that, as his language was intentionally ambiguous. While sitting next to a longtime al Qaeda veteran from Egypt, Julani did not explicitly say that his group has broken from al Qaeda.
Iranian general inspects the Golan Heights  THREAT MATRIX  Iranian media reported on July 27 that the IRGC Basij chief inspected Quneitra in the Golan Heights by the demarcation with Israel.  . . .
Iraq’s prime minister establishes Popular Mobilization Front as a permanent ‘independent military formation’   The Iraqi Prime Minister's order will establish Iraq's own IRGC, institutionalizing Tehran's influence in the country.
Monday 1 August 2016 / Hour 1, Block B: Tom Joscelyn, Long War Journal senior editor & FDD,  and Bill Roggio, Long War Journal senior editor  & FDD, in re:  In Normandy, ghastly murder of an aged priest.  The myth of the lone wolf: after each attack, a meme goes up before any fact or intell is collected asserting that each attack was the work of a lone wolf. Nice, truck into crowd, hundreds killed or wounded; within days rounded up many accomplices. In the last few days, the terrorist got his vid to IS beforehand. Three attacks, two in Germany and one in France (Ansbach, Wurzburg, and Normandy); killers got info to the IS media machine very rapidly.  Killer calls out, Allahu Akhbar. conforming with IS requirements.
Popular Mobilization Committee in Iraq (Shia; run by Iran as local IRGC crew): formed after Iran took over most of northern and western Iraq.  Is a paramilitary body, reports only to the Prime minister. Like Hezb in Lebanon; is more than the religious police.  From Baghdad to them: money, weapons, everything.  A state within a state within a state.
Monday 1 August 2016 / Hour 1, Block C:  Gordon G. Chang, Daily Beast & Forbes.com, in re: Chinese FBI agent pleads guilty in US fed court to have been working for China.  Old-fashioned humint; how did the FBI become so easily penetrated and take so long to figure it out?  Guy was hired in 1997, which speaks to China’s long-term planning.  Spy vs.spy; threats not only against the US by a Chinese cutout, but by the Global Times threatening Australia, a tabloid controlled by the Peoples Daily, the CCP paper.  When Chinese diplos can’t say something wicked, the paper does.    “We’ll take more losses than the US will, but we can afford that” – bloody-minded. The Chinese mil does want to go to war, esp flag officers (generals and admirals), who have a lot of new eqpt and want to use it pronto.   “Gee, we'd like to use this.”   Mao Tse-tung: “Chinese mothers would eventually replenish the losses in a war with the US.”  Australia:  Beijing tries to separate Canberra from Washington, and scare Australians.  Trying to drive the tale that the Hague Court is illegitimate, want to get out from under the Curt’s jurisdiction and delegitimize the idea of a rules-based international order. China ignores the rules it doesn't like and no one enforces – the death knell of a rules-based order.  Russia uninterested in South China Sea but China demands Russian navy be there in order to keep favorable relations, Next year in the autumn:  XIX Party Congress, a whole new Politburo. Only two of the seven Standing Committee members are slated to stay. Xi has to show some success in his foreign and domestic policies in order to stay in.     Global Times   ‏@globaltimesnews   ‪#环球时报‪   #US would suffer more in war with #China. http://bit.ly/2aoz1dR 
Monday 1 August 2016 / Hour 1, Block D: Eli Lake, Bloomberg View, in re: Obama Adm has a policy of attributing any kind of _ to Russia.  Clapper was saying, “We're so shocked that people are hacking.”   . . .   There’s a lot of smoke around Assange, but govt says it doesn't know for sure.  Even a dam in Westchester County hack has been attributed to China.  Policy decision?  What we've seen – just was at Aspen Security Forum – a clear indication that it's time that there be prosecutions for Russia.  Clapper and Brennan say, “Let’s wait to see what FBI says,” but Dems want quicker disposition.   . . . Naming and shaming Russia— do we want Russian help in Aleppo? Today, another shootdown of a Russian plane; absent more info sharing, this sort of thing could lead to a war.  Would Russians direct agents to hack the US in order to help Trump get elected? Several former US officials at the top of US cybersecurity: all say the Russians have done it, but WH says, We don't know.   http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-31/why-russia-keeps-getting-away-with-hacking-america
 
Hour Two
Monday 1 August 2016 / Hour 2, Block A:  John Fund, NRO, and Mona Charen, NRO, in re:  The Trump campaign – its success is iconoclastic.  In most recent days, it's taken on an American family, the Khans, who appeared suddenly at the DNC in Philadelphia on Thursday.  Their son died in Iraq in 2004 from an IED.  Since Thursday, the contest between Trump and Clinton: Trump on stage trying to get away from his ill-considered remarks against the Khans, while Mrs C has disappeared.  The  old proverb is, “Hold shovel, quit digging.” But Trump is still digging.  Very odd. Quandary.  His profoundly indecent remarks seem to be acceptable to his followers. His words against McCain, his allusion to Cruz’s father’s being implicated in the Kennedy assassination -  each of these should have been enough to take everyone aback.  Morality.  Also, practical politics: Trump got a gift of a 1.2 % economy – awful; and Mrs Clinton again admitted to another whopper; but Trump threw these away with trivial and shallow retorts.  Trump is an amateur who’ll listen to no one. 
Recall Cindy Sheehan, a Gold Star parent: Bush respected her sacrifice and spoke respectfully. Trump shd have said, “We respect the family and disagree on policy.”   The GOP is shaken – Kelly Ayotte, Rob Portman, others, are having to issue statements because they're in tight races. 
Mrs Khan – Trump immediately said, “She may not have been allowed to speak” – he has a sadistic streak you can't cover up or justify; it's just who he is. 
Bounce—http://www.cbsnews.com/news/campaign-2016-did-hillary-clinton-get-a-post-convention-bump/
Gold State Families:http://www.votevets.org/press/gold-star-letter  ; TV    Is Donald Trump's Endgame the Launch of Trump News? | Vanity Fair   ; www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/06/donald-trump-tv-network    The breakout media star of 2016 is, inarguably, Donald Trump,
Monday 1 August 2016 / Hour 2, Block B:  John Fund, NRO, and Mona Charen, NRO, in re: Hillary Clinton’s campaign.  On the bus with Time Kaine.  Bil Clinton’s traditional stemwinder. Mrs C did not accuse Republicans of being [the worst things on Earth]. Rather, she reached out to Republicans who are wavering, said, “I’m not that scary.”  Her problem is that after she tries this move to the center, then goes on Fox News and immediately begins lying again p- had no answer about Jas Comey: “That’s not the way I heard it; I heard him say I was being honest with the American people.”  Yike. A prodigious liar. Sigh. Reminds one of Kennedy in Chappaquiddick.  In an alternate reality – each believes his/her own lies. You can't break through.   
This fall, we have two people who don't live in the same ethical/moral plane we do.  . . . “Hey –they're political hacks!”  “No – this is pathological.”  The bumper sticker, David Duke vs a convicted felon: “Vote for the crook, it's important.”  Americans are so polarized they just stick up for their candidate. If voters view this as merely a mud-wrestling reality show -- 
Monday 1 August 2016 / Hour 2, Block C:  Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re: The ten-year deal ending in 2017.  MOU between US and Israel, letting the Israeli army plan ahead, Under dispute: 25% of money was allowed to be spent in Israel, thus keeping Israeli industries alive and from which US forces benefits: F35 wings and helmets are Israeli-designed. Also, can _ go to Congress annually?   US funding to Israel creates 70,000 US jobs.  Btw: American industry is not prepared to pick up the slack, but American industrialists want to kill any competition. A gradual decrease might have worked better.  Currently: joint sea-land drills w US Marines and Israeli commandos to counter IS attacks.  Training in Negev desert.  CAYAGreen: Come as you are when you get the green.  Transfer of fighters from ship to shore. . . . Note the coincidence of joint Russian-Iranian exercises . . .  In Russia, 2016 Army Games in which Iran is participating.  Hamas:  Cairo has entirely lost confidence in anything good coming from cooperation with Turkey.  IS  wounded taken in  tunnels into Gaza for treatment by Hamas. Qarar has had to give $31 mil to pay Hamas public sector. Strange:  Prince Turki went to an MKO meeting (a muhajedin banned party in Iran): Abbas met with MKO officials, and Iranian Natl Security Council blasted them.  Why would Hamas do that when it's dependent on Iran? Fatah is weakened and may lose election. 
Monday 1 August 2016 / Hour 2, Block D:  Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re:  Iran. The UN.   Khamenei, el Supreme Leader, has recently issued a blast of condemnation, oion twitter, to condemn and threaten Israel, esp any alliance between Saudis and Israel.  He write: “Allegations of US being behind the Turkish coup – if true , that would be yuge.”  [No kidding. Although he wrote “huge.”] He said any ties ’twixt Saudis and Israel would be an attack on Islam.  The AP story denied any separate agreement – but Iran protests to IAEA against the leaking of info on the side deal. Ergo, it exists, and Iran exposes it to pressure the US and Europe to get the banks to do business in Iran.  Saudis try to keep oil price low to damage Iran and bld pipelines to neighbors.  At the UN, Secretary Genl election coming:  East Europe was to get the position and SG shd be a woman – but these positions are weakening. A straw vote this Friday to show the direction better.  Russians in charge just now and want to control, so expect the vote in November. 
 
Hour Three
Monday 1 August 2016 / Hour 3, Block A:   Mary Kissel, WSJ Opinion Journal, in re:  Opinion Journal: Attacking the Khans   The WSJ editorial page editor, Paul Gigot, on the war of words between Donald Trump and the family of a Muslim fallen soldier.
Monday 1 August 2016 / Hour 3, Block B:   Josh Rogin, Washington Post, in re: The Trump campaign denies its own Ukraine policy  Why is Trump’s campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, denying that his staff worked to keep the Republican platform from supporting U.S. weapons deliveries to Ukraine? His claims about the episode contradict not only the facts, but also the candidate’s longstanding position on the issue. He would be better off just owning it.  https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/josh-rogin/wp/2016/08/01/the-trump-campaign-denies-its-own-ukraine-policy/
Monday 1 August 2016 / Hour 3, Block C:  Richard A Epstein, Hoover, Chicago Law, NYU Law, et al.; in re: Texas Voter ID Unhorsed. @RichardAEpstein, @hooverinst  (1 of 2)
Monday 1 August 2016 / Hour 3, Block D:  Richard A Epstein, Hoover, Chicago Law, NYU Law, et al.; in re: Texas Voter ID Unhorsed. @RichardAEpstein, @hooverinst  (2 of 2)
 
Hour Four
Monday 1 August 2016 / Hour 4, Block A: Donald G, McNeil, Jr. @NYTimes.com, in re: Zika in Puerto Rico.   “…Cases of Zika infection are expected to keep rising through October, and by year’s end, a quarter of the island’s population of 3.5 million will have been exposed, a “very dire” situation, said Dr. Lyle R. Petersen, the C.D.C.’s chief of vector-borne diseases and director of its fight against Zika.
In a normal year, that would mean about 8,000 infected pregnancies, but the birthrate is dropping rapidly, said Jose A. Lopez, the health department’s demographer. In past years, births normally outnumbered deaths by about 400 per month, but since January, that ratio has reversed itself, and there have been, on average, 135 more deaths than births.
The drop is partly a result of rising divorce rates and couples emigrating as the economy deteriorates, but also of “mothers delaying giving birth because of the campaign against Zika,” Mr. Lopez said.”  (1 of 2)
Monday 1 August 2016 / Hour 4, Block B:  Donald G, McNeil, Jr. @NYTimes.com, in re: Zika in Puerto Rico.   “…Cases of Zika infection are expected to keep rising through October, and by year’s end, a quarter of the island’s population of 3.5 million will have been exposed, a “very dire” situation, said Dr. Lyle R. Petersen, the C.D.C.’s chief of vector-borne diseases and director of its fight against Zika.
In a normal year, that would mean about 8,000 infected pregnancies, but the birthrate is dropping rapidly, said Jose A. Lopez, the health department’s demographer. In past years, births normally outnumbered deaths by about 400 per month, but since January, that ratio has reversed itself, and there have been, on average, 135 more deaths than births.
The drop is partly a result of rising divorce rates and couples emigrating as the economy deteriorates, but also of “mothers delaying giving birth because of the campaign against Zika,” Mr. Lopez said.”  (2 of 2)
Monday 1 August 2016 / Hour 4, Block C: Hotel Mars, episode n.  @mMarcRayman, NASA, and David Livingston, @SpaceShow; in re:  The Mysteries of the Dwarf-Planet Ceres.   “…Asteroids provide fundamental clues to the formation and evolution of planetesimals. Collisional models based on the depletion of the primordial main belt of asteroids predict 10–15 craters >400 km should have formed on Ceres, the largest object between Mars and Jupiter, over the last 4.55 Gyr. Likewise, an extrapolation from the asteroid Vesta would require at least 6–7 such basins. However, Ceres’ surface appears devoid of impact craters >~280 km. Here, we show a significant depletion of cerean craters down to 100–150 km in diameter. The overall scarcity of recognizable large craters is incompatible with collisional models, even in the case of a late implantation of Ceres in the main belt, a possibility raised by the presence of ammoniated phyllosilicates. Our results indicate that a significant population of large craters has been obliterated, implying that long-wavelength topography viscously relaxed or that Ceres experienced protracted widespread resurfacing.”  http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160726/ncomms12257/full/ncomms12257.html ; [ 27 July 2016 ] The case of the missing Ceres craters News  ;  Astronomy Now Online-Jul 27, 2016   /  Scientists with NASA's Dawn mission were surprised to find that dwarf planet Ceres has no clear signs of truly giant impact basins. This image . . .  (1 of 2)
Monday 1 August 2016 / Hour 4, Block D:   otel Mars, episode n.  @mMarcRayman, NASA, and David Livingston, @SpaceShow; in re:  The Mysteries of the Dwarf-Planet Ceres.   “…Asteroids provide fundamental clues to the formation and evolution of planetesimals. Collisional models based on the depletion of the primordial main belt of asteroids predict 10–15 craters >400 km should have formed on Ceres, the largest object between Mars and Jupiter, over the last 4.55 Gyr. Likewise, an extrapolation from the asteroid Vesta would require at least 6–7 such basins. However, Ceres’ surface appears devoid of impact craters >~280 km. Here, we show a significant depletion of cerean craters down to 100–150 km in diameter. The overall scarcity of recognizable large craters is incompatible with collisional models, even in the case of a late implantation of Ceres in the main belt, a possibility raised by the presence of ammoniated phyllosilicates. Our results indicate that a significant population of large craters has been obliterated, implying that long-wavelength topography viscously relaxed or that Ceres experienced protracted widespread resurfacing.”  http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160726/ncomms12257/full/ncomms12257.html  ;  [ 27 July 2016 ] The case of the missing Ceres craters News   ;   Astronomy Now Online-Jul 27, 2016   /  Scientists with NASA's Dawn mission were surprised to find that dwarf planet Ceres has no clear signs of truly giant impact basins. This image . . .  (2 of 2)
 
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