The John Batchelor Show

Monday 07 March 2016

Air Date: 
March 07, 2016

Photo, left: 
 
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-host: Thaddeus McCotter, WJR, The Great Voice of the Great Lakes
 
Hour One
Monday 7 March 2016 / Hour 1, Block A:  Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal Editorial Board & host of Opinion Journal on WSJ Video; Richard Outzen, Publisher, Independent News, Florida; in re: West Long Branch, NJ – Marco Rubio has only claimed two victories so far, making the Sunshine State his make-or-break moment. The Monmouth University Poll finds the home state U.S. Senator currently trails Donald Trump by 8 points in Florida’s Republican primary.
Trump has support from 38% of likely primary voters compared to 30% who back Marco Rubio. Ted Cruz earns 17% support and John Kasich has 10%. Rubio actually leads Trump by 48% to 23% among the nearly 1-in-5 voters who have already cast their ballots in this “early vote” state. Trump has a 42% to 26% lead among those who have yet to vote.
Rubio leads Trump 41% to 30% in the southern part of the state. Trump has a significant 44% to 22% advantage in Florida’s central region. The race is closer in the northern tier of the state, with Trump at 36% and Rubio at 32%. Nearly one-fifth of the likely electorate is non-white, mostly Cuban or other Hispanic. This group appears to prefer Rubio over Trump, but the sample size is too small to report exact percentages.  (1 of 2)
Monday 7 March 2016 / Hour 1, Block B: Richard Outzen, Publisher, Independent News, Florida; :  Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal Editorial Board & host of Opinion Journal on WSJ Video  (2 of 2)
Monday 7 March 2016 / Hour 1, Block C: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com & Daily Beast, in re:  Global Times (controlled by Peoples Daily, the Chinese Party rag) threatens Commander Harry Harris, accuses he PACPM commander of being warlike and bullying smaller nations.  Most countries, incl all on China’s periphery: falls on deaf ears; resonates only in North Korea and Moscow. The Chinese economy is falling apart; leaders thus need to stir up nationalism. Further, military officers’ becoming more influential in China’s political systems. Leaders probably think, if we’re going out, we’ll take everyone with us.  This may not be like the end of the Soviet Party; probably will be much worse.    Neither Party in Washington has sussed this out, figured what will happen if (when) the Chinese Communist Party fails.  The Party will go noisily; Xi Jinping is a tough guy; his position on the fall of the USSR was that there was no strong man there.  Some of the worst attitude in Washington come from the oppo Party – the Party in the White House has bad policies, the GOP, worse.  North Korea threatens to obliterate the US?  DPRK leaders feel closer to Moscow than to Beijing.    . . .   Stalinist kangaroo trials. . . . 6.5 – 7.0% growth is promised by Xi Jinping.  . . .  Some say it might be 4%; Gordon Chang thinks less.
The flotilla in the South China Sea.  Beijing technocrats appear pessimistic these days.  Their GDP growth target is at the "iron bottom" level..    http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2016/03/06/china-sets-iron-botto...
Monday 7 March 2016 / Hour 1, Block D: Gene Countryman, KNSS Kansas, in re: In 1856, Kansans were gathering the multiple small parties together; the caning of Charles Sumner; on Saturday, Kansas held its primary: a closed primary.  Mr Trump decided to pass on C-PAC atg he last moment and go to Kansas. First, a Trump rally open to all: overflow crowd; MC asked Dems and Independents to stand – about 25% did.  An hour later, moved to the Republican caucus, open only to registered Republicans. Rep Pompeo spoke for Rubio.  Then Sen Cruz spoke, gave a barnburner of a speech: religious freedom, said all the right things in the most energetic and mobilizing speech I’ve heard this year. Mr Trump spoke last – was booed, seemed to be flat and lacked the spark he’d had.
 
Hour Two
Monday 7 March 2016 / Hour 2, Block A:  John Fund, NRO, and David Drucker, Washington Examiner, in re:  Caucuses are where you’ll get the most conservative, committed Republican voters.  _ managed to misspell both Wichita and Kansas.   . . .  Donald Trump was a pariah at the C-PAC conference; a thousand people were ready to walk out.  I watched the Trump supporters at a Trump speech – one of his supporters said, “It was fun going to the circus, but now I’ve had enough.” If Trump fails to reach 1237 votes, . . .   Maine: the governor endorsed and travelled with Trump; but here's a strong libertarian streak there, and Cruz has done a good job of gathering Ran Paul supporters.  . . . If this becomes a Cruz-Trump race, I don’t think Trump can be [sure of winning].   . .  . Today Trump has a 38-35 lead in Ohio, but Kasich has a machine-like grip on Ohio politics.     (1 of 2)
Monday 7 March 2016 / Hour 2, Block B: John Fund, NRO, and David Drucker, Washington Examiner, in re:  Mitt Romney admitted on CNN that Donald Trump is the “likely” nominee — but also hinted strongly that a contested convention is “a realistic scenario” that Republicans need to consider.
How Ted Cruz won second place; Clinton builds delegate lead over weekend, Cruz claws back toward Trump. We’re back tomorrow after a much-needed break.  How Ted Cruz Won Second Place  The remarkable technological evolution of politics and political campaigns in recent years comes with a significant dose of irony. All the new bells and whistles, all the data mining and micro-targeting and digital advertising that are now the hallmarks of a modern presidential campaign are performed in service of the single most basic element of electoral politics: Knocking on a door and asking for a vote.
The innovative tools pioneered by President Obama’s campaign, or Mitt Romney’s campaign, or the Democratic and Republican National Committees, aren’t designed to persuade voters; they’re designed to identify voters and turn them out to the polls.
Which is why Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) has so clearly established himself as the second-place contender in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, with a real shot at being able to outlast real estate mogul Donald Trump over the long term.
After voters in 19 states and the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico have weighed in, Cruz is the only Republican who can make a credible case for challenging Trump, even if the other two contenders will stick around until their home states vote on March 15. Cruz has the support of 300 pledged delegates, twice as many as Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and 84 short of Trump’s total. There aren’t many winner-take-all contests on the Republican calendar, but those few delegate-rich states are enough to help Cruz close that gap — if he gets a clean shot at Trump.
How has Cruz’s campaign succeeded where Rubio’s, especially, has fallen short? The two campaigns both engaged in highly sophisticated targeting, aimed at exactly the segments of voters they needed to win over or turn out, and both had enough money to prosecute their cases. But their respective approaches are a study in contrasts: One campaign focused on the ground. The other was up in the air.
As usual when covering the technology behind campaigns, Bloomberg’s Sasha Issenberg puts it best:
“In their duel for second place, Cruz and Rubio had similarly sophisticated targeting operations, but put to very different uses. While Cruz’s analysts saw that as the first step toward disaggregating the electorate into segments that could receive targeted communication — separating ‘timid traditionalists’ from ‘stoic traditionalists,’ for example — Rubio had all but abandoned individualized contact by Super Tuesday. Throughout the year, the campaign had made only symbolic investments in field operations — enough to convince the press and local party figures that he was taking seriously grassroots interaction but not enough to dramatically shape the electorate through them.”
Cruz’s campaign has used its analytics to target individual voters. Rubio’s, Issenberg writes, used its data analysis to target media markets, television spots and appearances.
The results speak for themselves. Cruz won Iowa, a state that requires months of organizing on a door-to-door level. He has won caucus states such as Alaska, Kansas and Maine, and he took about two-thirds of the delegates available out of his home state of Texas.
Trump, another candidate whose campaign is short on on-the-ground organizing, has done best in states that hold primaries rather than caucuses, and states where both independents and Republicans can vote — Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Virginia, Louisiana and the like. Rubio has won in Minnesota, though by a slim margin (he netted only four more delegates than Cruz), and in Puerto Rico, on Sunday.
Put another way, Cruz has won all but two caucuses (Trump won Kentucky, Rubio took Minnesota). Trump has won all but three primaries (Cruz took Texas and Virginia, Rubio won Puerto Rico). It’s not an exact analogy, but that sounds awfully similar to a certain primaries vs. caucus split that occurred during the 2008 Democratic primary contest. The guy who won all those caucuses ended up beating out his main rival, who focused more on primaries.
The late House Speaker Tip O’Neill used to tell a story about the very first time he ran for office: The day before the election, O’Neill’s neighbor, whom he had known his whole life, told him she would vote for him, even though he hadn’t asked her to. “I didn’t think I had to ask for your vote,” O’Neill told her. “Tom, let me tell you something: People like to be asked,” she replied.
It’s a lot easier to ask for a vote in person than on television. The Cruz campaign is proving that this year, and it’s why he alone has the chance to challenge Trump in the remaining contests. (2 of 2)
 [Idaho and Hawaii will go for Cruz. Rubio’s people don't much like Cruz.  If Rubio loses. Watch establishment panic and Rubio’s voters go to Kasich. ]
Monday 7 March 2016 / Hour 2, Block C:  Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re: Putin has been promising Iran the S300 system for years, never delivered, now has suspended again because Iran had sworn not to let it be used against Israel [by Hezbollah?], but Israel  has reported to the Kremlin that Hezbollah has these weapons, so the sale is again suspended.  Under the guise of war against terrorists, Iran has built up a huge weapons armory/delivery to Syria [and thence to Hezbollah].  Tribal takeover and pacification of the area depend on Israel’s help. Putin also doesn’t want more of his soldiers dead.  Putin sees Israel as the one stable regional player, knows that Iran could do a volta face at any moment – and 100,000 Russian Jews have moved to Israel, so “an attack on Israel is an attack on Russia,” said Mr Putin.  . . . Iran building up large numbers of “swarm boats” for coastal attacks – frogmen, underwater, as well as surface marine.  Hezbollah also trying to smuggle more building materials from Sinai to Gaza to replenish; Hamas is helping ISIS: Egypt sees a tractor arrive, go into a tunnel, and return with dirt.   ISIS is on the outs with the “political wing” of Hamas.   Abu Abdallah said ISIS fighters from Sinai are smuggling weapons and telecommunications to Gaza, where Hamas is welcoming ISIS into its hospitals. A pro tem common interest; could end swiftly and relations with ISIS could change.
Hamas Has Replenished Its Rocket Arsenals, Israeli Officials Say ; Israel and Jordan Agree on Surveillance Cameras for Temple Mount in JerusalemBiden Mideast Trip to Focus on Islamic State and Syria, Not Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
U.S. Vice President Joe Biden left Saturday for a five-day trip to the UAE, Israel, West Bank and Jordan. A senior White House official said Friday that Biden would not make any major recommendations on the Israeli-Palestinian issue but would focus on the fight against the Islamic State and the Syrian conflict. (Reuters)
 ;  Tehran's "Destabilizing Activities" on Agenda for Biden's Visit to Israel - Michael Wilner and Tovah Lazaroff
Speaking of the agenda for U.S. Vice President Joe Biden's two-day visit to Israel beginning Tuesday evening, a senior administration official told the Jerusalem Post on Saturday night, "In Israel, in particular, he wanted to discuss Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [the Iran deal] implementation and countering Iran's destabilizing activities in the region." U.S. officials say negotiations over defense funding from the U.S. will not be the primary point of discussion during Biden's visit.  ;  Egypt Says Muslim Brotherhood, Backed by Hamas, Killed Top Prosecutor - Nour Youssef
Egypt's interior minister, Maj. Gen. Magdi Abdel-Ghaffar, said Sunday that members of the banned Muslim Brotherhood, trained by the Palestinian militant group Hamas, carried out the bombing in Cairo that killed Egypt's top prosecutor, Hisham Barakat, on June 29, 2015. (New York Times)
Monday 7 March 2016 / Hour 2, Block D: Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re: Biden will go to Ramallah and Jordan – Pal-Isr, ISIS, Iran, and Iran’s destabilizing activities. Also, negotiations over defense funding: the ten-year MOU has not reached a critical point. . . . Complicated negotiations; new missile-defense system in place, most advanced in the world; Israel’s new radar sees 500-600 mi, and satellites and long-range and short-range rockets.   Netanyahu was going to go to the AIPAC mtg; the WH said they were working on a time and Bibi concluded that because the MOU isn't competed he wouldn't visit.  Was he invited?  WH said it was working on a time . .  Netanyahu’s staff said they had not received an invitation. “Does Netanyahu golf” [laughter] I think not.”/ Video cameras all over the world – except for North Korea and Temple Mount.  Jordanians proposed that to counter the lie s about al Aqsa, which then became a rallying point for extremists and turned it form a political to a religious war.  Palestinians throw stones down on people praying. Cameras to cone everywhere except in the mosque. Where they store weapons. 
 
Hour Three
Monday 7 March 2016 / Hour 3, Block A:   Jed Babbin, former Deputy Undersecretary of Defense, in re: Bryan Pagliano granted immunity by the Department of Justice anent the Clinton email scandal.
Monday 7 March 2016 / Hour 3, Block B:  John Tamny, RealClearPolitics, in re:  The Bryan Pagliano immunity deal is hugely significant. It means Hillary and her closest aides - Abedin, Mills and Sullivan - are likely to be indicted.   Ratting Out Hillary | The American Spectator
Monday 7 March 2016 / Hour 3, Block C:   David Grinspoon, Library of Congress, in re: Titan Mystery feature evolves in Titan's Ligeia Mare ; Mars Mars Orbiter to seek out life on the Red Planet by detecting ...  The second, in two years' time, will see the ESA flying a British-built robotic rover to the surface of Mars. It will then drill down 7ft into the Red ... ; Ceres  NASA's Dawn spacecraft marks one year at dwarf planet Ceres  Eight and a half years after its launch from Florida, NASA's Dawnspacecraft celebrated its one year anniversary at the dwarf planet Ceres on ... (1 of 2)
Monday 7 March 2016 / Hour 3, Block D:  David Grinspoon, Library of Congress (2 of 2)
 
Hour Four
Monday 7 March 2016 / Hour 4, Block A:  Bosworth 1485: Psychology of a Battle, by Michael Jones   
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss?url=search-alias%3Dstripbooks&fie...
Splendid    “. . . a very exciting re-interpretation of the battle which totally transforms our understanding of what actually happened on that fateful day Professor A. J. Pollard An extraordinary shift ... puts this key English battle over the county line Guardian Insightful and rich study of the battle of Bosworth ... no longer need Richard play the villain Times Literary Supplement An entirely new analysis of Bosworth ... a lively read” —BBC History Magazine   ; http://www.amazon.com/Bosworth-1485-Psychology-Michael-Jones/dp/1848549083  (1 of 8)
Monday 7 March 2016 / Hour 4, Block B:  Bosworth 1485: Psychology of a Battle, by Michael Jones   (2 of 8)
Monday 7 March 2016 / Hour 4, Block C:  Bosworth 1485: Psychology of a Battle, by Michael Jones   (3 of 8)
Monday 7 March 2016 / Hour 4, Block D:  Bosworth 1485: Psychology of a Battle, by Michael Jones   (4 of 8)
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