.

 

John Batchelor Show podcasts:  http://wabcradio.com/sectional.asp?id=33447 

 

Co-hosts: 

Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal editorial page 

Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents

 

Thursday 905P Eastern Time:  Mary Kissel, in re: Facebook IPO and the health of US  and international capital markets

Thursday 920P Eastern Time:  Chris Gadomski, Bloomberg nuclear analyst, in re: San Diego: Radioactive leak shuts down San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station. Huge implications for California ballot initiative.  Seventy-one out of 10,000 tubes have shown degradation beyond what was expected. Expensive, complex, alarming.  San Onofre is almost on an earthquake fault line; Diablo Canyon is one kilometer from a fault line.   Corrosion and wear are common problems - but not after you've just spent $680mi a year earlier to update eqpt. California initiative to call a referendum on closing down the plants. Might cost $4bil to close down - or might not, at all.

Thursday 935P Eastern Time:   Joe Rago, WSJ and Pulitzer Prize winner, in re: Affordable Care Act

Thursday 950P Eastern Time:  Mary Kissel, in re: FHA loans: close to 10% are "seriously delinquent"; has sometimes been 18%. FHA is technically insolvent - it's govt accounting; safe to say that it's in fact insolvent. Could make it technically solvent with $30 to 50 billion.

Facebook.  Sarbox.

Payday lenders charge around $15 for a two-week $100 loan to their typically high-risk borrowers, which equates to a 390% annual interest rate. Consumer groups like the liberal Center for Responsible Lending call this "predatory," but the terms are reasonable compared to an average credit-card fee, which can exceed 900%.

Gov. Rick Scott has thrown his political weight behind efforts to reform the fisc of Florida's two taxpayer-backed catastrophic insurance funds, an example of courageous leadership. But it all could be for naught, thanks to the objections of a single Republican legislator: state Rep. Dorothy Hukill.

 

Thursday 1005P (705P Pacific Time):  McKay Coppins, BuzzFeed, in Las Vegas; in re: Trump endorses Romney for a net loss in ratings. Romney looked awkward, may have been to deal another blow to Gingrich, although it may only have been an advertising ploy for a glitzy Trump hotel.  Trump is perfectly capable of endorsing someone else tomorrow, of course.  Laugh line for Comedy Central.  Mrs Romney was present on stage today; Mrs Trump, not. 

Thursday 1020P (720P Pacific Time):  Arif Rafiq, ForeignPolicy.com, and Pakistan Policy blog,; and Bill Roggio, Long War Journal, in re: Combat role won't end totally in 2013.  Wrong message to Taliban; this Administration - Panetta and the president - plays poker very poorly. NATO was consumed by semantics for much of the day.  Leading from behind.  US has wanted allies to do all the heavy lifting, even if they weren't much allies - Pakistan, Taliban-infused Afghanistan, Somalia. Stand back as far as possible; how about Paris?

National Front of Afghanistan, former Northern Alliance: non-Pashtun, being Hazara, Tajiks, Uzbeks, who've been targets of atrocities by Taliban and oppose Hekmatyar. NFA is pushing for a parliamentary system and a devolution of power. Karzai and Taliban oppose this; Afghanistan may break in parts.  

Thursday 1035P (735P Pacific Time): Malcolm Hoenlein, in re: The global banking telecommunications network may be forced to shut down all Iranian grtransfers. Would destroy the Iranian economy, which in any case at present is in tatters. Larijani asks for death penalty for any black-market currency traders, many of whom are just doing tiny business on the sidewalks.  Now 18,000 rials to the dollar and growing daily; Iran pays its debts in the cheap currency while it's getting paid in euros and dollars for oil. Iranians have change the names of 90 of their 120 ships to hide weapons shipments. US directors of natl intel are finally speaking more about the dangers of waiting.  Iran has just doubled its defense budget, opened a Spanish-language television network for South America, had surreptitious (and wholly illegal) arms shipments to Azerbaijan and other destinations discovered.Syria: more unrest in Damascus suburbs; Nasrallah's troops defecting en masse; Maschaal having troubles. Yesterday, 5 Iranian revolutionary guards captured by Syrian opposition, admitted they'd been sent to kill Syrian citizens in Homs. Hamaa in thorough revolt. Moscow "will continue to sell arms to Syria despite intl condemnation.  Prestige, naval base in Tartus, and grave disrepute among Syrian populace. If Assad falls, Alawites will flee, but no indication of refugees on borders right now.

Thursday 1050P (750P Pacific Time):  Dr. Mohammed Zuhdi Jasser, American Islamic Forum for Democracy,  and author, Battle for the Soul of Islam, in re: The Third Jihad film.  Brennan Center at NYU Law School, along with New York TImes and Village Voice, attacks NYPD Chief Ray Kelly for allowing policemen to see the video and demands to install a supervisor in the force. Collegial attack from the completely discredited CAIR (Conference  on American Islamic relations), which donates money to globally-detested jihadist groups.

Third Jihad, which Dr Jasser narrated and which has been seen by millions of Americans,  is about false face of jihadists as they prepare to attack Americans.

CAIR has totally distorted and manipulated the story.  AL Qaeda on a jihadist site agrees with the New York TImes, calling Dr Jasser anti-Muslim. 

Ray Kelly is the reason that there hasn't been a second attack.NYPD is recognized worldwide at the forefront of protecting New York, including Muslims, from jihadists attacks. 

Jim Woolsey, Tom Ridge, bernard Lewis - a range of anti-terrorism experts attacked as anti-Muslim. "Where are the moderate Muslim voices?" - under attacks from NYU and the New York Times.

Of films and fear: The Times buys Islamist lies (Dr Jasser's op-ed in the New York Post on January 29, 2012) 

American Muslim organization backs NYPD and Chief Kelly efforts to fight Islamist radicalization: CAIR and New York Times vicious attack on NYPD is meritless (AIFD Press Release on January 26, 2012)

 

Thursday 1105P (805P Pacific Time):  Dr. Mordechai Kedar, Bar-Ilan University, in re:  Egypt and Syria.  Egyptian sports crowds go mad.   Port Said sports announcer screams on TV, "Have you lost your minds?  Why is Egyptian blood so cheap?  Why do we behave like beasts in  a stadium? Why do you go to a soccer game to come home dead? What will this do for Egypt?"  He's devastated, actually cried on camera on an official channel. Failure of the revolution in Egypt. The poor sportscaster is decrying the demolition of Egyptian civil society - 19mil live with no running water, no sewerage. Now it's worse than a year ago.  

Today, the populace has got rid of Mubarak but there's no tourism or investment, and little food. People are desperate.  Muslim Brotherhood may turn this chaos to its advantage and push the SCAF (Supreme Council of the Armed Forces) out of power.  Everyone in despair; likely to support another strong-man regime; esp Tantawi, if the army (which controls 30% of the economy and is a conglomerate of companies) - if the army releases some of its wealth to the country. However, Tantawi is protecting the army and its assets, so there's little hope.  Upper Egypt - toward the source of the Nile, in the south - is even poorer than in Cairo or Alexandria. Farmers need wheat, and sorghum for cows; but no outsider can solve this.

Thursday 1120P (820P Pacific Time):  Malcolm Hoenlein, in re: Iran has switched it support from Hams to Islamic Jihad, Eight missiles (7 km range Kassam 2; not Grads, which have a range of 40km) launched from Gaza to Negev ; fired during the day in rain under cloud cover, when Israel's view is diminished. Hamas alarmed at Islamic Jihad's conversion to Shi'ism. Hamas is afeard of bringing on the anger of its people if it engenders Israeli retribution.  

Hamas, bugging out of Damascus, looking for a new headquarters. Amman? Cairo?

A columnist writes that Israel might strike Iran in April, May or June. Totally unconfirmed. Not in winter because of weather; technically, might have to be June, July, or August. Israel is extremely unenthusiastic about attacking Iran, but Iran repeatedly serves notice that it definitively intends to obliterate Israel, and that it's nuclear bomb will do the trick. Why is Washington so unhelpful?   Somalia in the Sinai. 

Thursday 1135P (835P Pacific Time):  Soccer Men: Profiles of the Rogues, Geniuses, and Neurotics Who Dominate the World's Most Popular Sport by Simon Kuper ; 1 of 2

Thursday 1150P (850P Pacific Time): Soccer Men: Profiles of the Rogues, Geniuses, and Neurotics Who Dominate the World's Most Popular Sport by Simon Kuper ; 2 of 2

 

Thursday/Fri 1205A (905 Pacific Time):  Ben Protess, NYT, in re: where's MF Global's missing money?

Thursday/Fri  1220A (920 Pacific Time):  Nick Timiraos, WSJ, in re; POTUS proposes new housing mortgage help to underwater homeowners.

Thursday/Fri  1235A (935P Pacific Time):  Joe Rago, WSJ and Pulitzer Prize winner, in re: Affordable Care Act.

Thursday/Fri  1250A  (950P Pacific Time): Exeunt. Karl Zabudovsky, NYT, in re: drought and cold stress, Mexico and the Sierra Madre.

 ..  ..  ..  

Music

Hour 1
Ides of March by Alexandre Desplat
The Last Samurai by Hans Zimmer

Hour 2
Appaloosa by Jeff Beal
Immortals by Trevor Morris

Hour 3
Assassin's Creed by Jesper Kyd
Thin Blue Line by Philip Glass

Hour 4
Downton Abbey by Various Artists
Ides of March by Alexandre Desplat
Quantum of Solace by David Arnold

.

 

John Batchelor Show podcasts:  http://wabcradio.com/sectional.asp?id=33447 

Co-host: John Avlon, CNN and Newsweek International

Monday 905P Eastern Time (605P Pacific Time):   .John Avlon, CNN and Newsweek, in re: In Florida, Romney stays on the attack.  "I've watched my party conduct itself without seriousness for the last two weeks. Is it ugly in Florida?" "It's uglier. Turn on a TV, see a negative ad within minutes." It's said that 92% of ads in Florida are negative. Romney's crew thinks that Gingrich is like a zombie: needs to be shot in the head or he'll come back and back and back.  Need 1144 delegates; Newt is 2.6% of the way there. Bachmann, Cain, others: remarkable that either was ever a frontrunner.

Monday 920P Eastern Time (620P Pacific Time):   .Larry Johnson, No Quarter blog (and tax refugee in Florida), in re:  GOP mass suicide. Cable TV exec: "We believe in throwing the first punch and then filming the fight." The one thing that will unite the Republican base is vitriol against Pres Obama.  JB: Romney has become just a guy who hits a low blow. " 'Mud' is what I call it because we're on the air. This is awful."

 

Monday 935P Eastern Time (635P Pacific Time):   .Salena Zito, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review in Florida, and Lara Brown, Villanova, just returned from Florida in re:   The bustling Versailles restaurant and bakery in Little Havana has a reputation for serving savory pastries, sweet Cuban coffee and politicians looking for support among Latino voters.  In Pennsylvania, Obama outspent Hillary three to one, with many negative ads; but by November, it didn't matter. Short-term memory in politics; by convention time, there won't be a complete reset, but the President's unfavorables aren't much lower than Mitt Romney's.  Note that Newt is not a villain, whereas Mitt Romney has turned him into an enemy of the state.  All these politicians actually believe that they can make the country better.

Monday 950P Eastern Time (650P Pacific Time):   .Eric Trager, Washington Institute, inre:  Egypt persecutes NGOs. Why? Xenophobic, populist sentiments prevail,  that the trouble in fact are being generated by the West. US administration hesitates  to withhold aid, considering it a nuclear option.  Is the Muslim Brotherhood - the Ikhwan - aware that abusing NGOs is a bad face to present to t he world, esp at a time when Egypt has to borrow money from the IMF?  More concerned about getting rid of liberals, or pro-democatic elements, in Egyptian society.

 

Monday 1005P (705P Pacific Time):   .Taegan Goddard, Political Wire, in re:   A new Rasmussen survey in Florida shows Mitt Romney leading Newt Gingrich by 16 points, 44% to 28%, with Rick Santorum at 12% and Ron Paul at 10%.  Pew: all this negativity has left Republicans cold toward their presidential field; most are very dissatisfied. Now, 46%  are satisfied, compared to 68% four years ago - and I don't recall that field as having been composed of intellectual or spiritual giants.  For the first time in two-and-a-half years, a slight preponderance of voters claim they're likely to vote Democratic. Newt has never appealed to the independent vote and he's doing nothing to court it now.  Meanwhile, Romney's vituperative responses have hurt him.  Rasmussen has always been accused of favoring Republicans; and phone polls are a tad questionable.

Monday 1020P (720P Pacific Time):   .McKay Coppins, buzzfeed, in Las Vegas, ad Taegan Goddard, in re: "Things Mitt Romney Had to Do Today in Florida" This is pretty awesome." Unlikely that Newt will do very well In Nevada. I just posted an article: No republican is happy with this field. Tea Partiers are watching Florida with dread. Moderate establishment folks look at Romney with a jaded eye - "Is this really the best we can do?" People assume it'll be Romney; hope he can tap a puppy - Rubio, e.g., to bring some fire or excitement; and that people will hold their nose and vote against Obama. reminiscent of a Henry James novel: everyone is miserable at the prospect of an obligatory arranged marriage, praying for someone - anyone - to ride in on a horse, be it the doorman, the stable boy, the fellow who just broke in a back window. How about Jeb Bush?  Odd that Republicans would think of another Bush; many think he was the one who could rise above the field. The eight years of G W Bush wiped out a lot of potential Republican candidates; are now in a re-building phase.

Monday 1035P (735P Pacific Time):   .Bill Roggio, Long War Journal, and Arif Rafiq, Pakistan Policy blog and Foreign Policy, in re: US Drones Patrolling Its Skies Provoke Outrage in Iraq.  The use of unarmed craft to protect American buildings and personnel may foreshadow an expansion of such operations to the United States government's diplomatic arm.  US still has thousands of contractors there and the biggest embassy in the world. Still, drones are not armed, used just for surveillance; much ado about not much.  After nine years of US presence in Iraq, people are pretty numb to drones, from huge Reapers to tiny Ravens, and even shoulder-launched.  The Dragonfly has an 18" wingspan. We need to put smiley faces on them and distribute candy with them. Karzai aspires to start his own talks with Taliban; feels his govt has been left out of nascent peace process - US, Qatar, Germany, et al. - and he's right. Taliban, meanwhile, want to cut him out in order to feather their own nest. Ideally talks shd be between the sovereign govt and the lead insurgency, but that's not working; right now, it's bilateral and top-heavy.  Something odd is happening at ISAF in re: al Q and IMU targetting. See: Long War Journal.  ISAF has stopped reporting on raids against al Qaeda and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) for two months, but after being pressed on the issue, they suddenly began reporting on kills and captured of operatives in Afghanistan.  IMU was working with al Q in Mumbai-type plots was broken up in 2010 - we captured an IMU op in Afghan not Pakistan. However, the group is still operating there, running training camps. Al Q calls in personnel from cadres, pushes some individuals into their special ops.

Monday 1050P (750P Pacific Time):   . Jeff Bliss, The Bliss Index, in re: The protesters know this will topple Quan and further cripple the city - it's what the anarchists want. The cops did a decent job - the protest was a movable feast . . . all over the place.   Occupy started to occupy a bldg in Oakland; rocket, running clashes with police all night, broke into the YMCA, then broke in to City Hall with crowbar and trashed it - children's art work, a hundred-year-old model of the bldg; police are stretched out, having to call in reinforcements from other jurisdictions (which costs a huge amount).  Why not call in the National Guard? Whre's the governor, who once was mayor of Oakland.  

Monday 1105P (805P Pacific Time):   Republic, Lost: How Money Corrupts Congress--and a Plan to Stop It, by Lawrence Lessig ; 1 of 2  

Monday 1120P (820P Pacific Time):   .Republic, Lost: How Money Corrupts Congress--and a Plan to Stop It, by Lawrence Lessig ; 2 of 2  

Eric Trager, Washington Institute, in re:  Egypt persecutes NGOs. Why? 

Monday 1135P (835P Pacific Time):   . Aaron Klein, WABC, in re: Hamas power in Gaza; Syrian breakdown.

Monday 1150P (850P Pacific Time):   ..John Bolton, AEI, in re: sanctions regime vs Iran fails; India backs out of the embargo, as does China 

 

Monday/Tues 1205A (905 Pacific Time):  Eric Trager, Washington Institute, inre:  Egypt persecutes NGOs. Why? Xenophobic, populist sentiments prevail,  that the trouble in fact are being generated by the West. US administration hesitates  to withhold aid, considering it a nuclear option.  Is the Muslim Brotherhood - the Ikhwan - aware that abusing NGOs is a bad face to present to t he world, esp at a time when Egypt has to borrow money from the IMF?  More concerned about getting rid of liberals, or pro-democatic elements, in Egyptian society.

Monday/Tues  1220A (920 Pacific Time):   . Reza Kahlili. author, A Time to Betray, in re:  Supreme Leader, vulgar to Pres Obama, will speak at Friday prayers; Hezbollah terrorist cells. 

Monday/Tues  1235A (935P Pacific Time):   .  .Salena Zito, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review in Florida, and Lara Brown, Villanova, just returned from Florida in re:   The bustling Versailles restaurant and bakery in Little Havana has a reputation for serving savory pastries, sweet Cuban coffee and politicians looking for support among Latino voters.  In Pennsylvania, Obama outspent Hillary three to one, with many negative ads; but by November, it didn't matter. Short-term memory in politics; by convention time, there won't be a complete reset, but the President's unfavorables aren't much lower than Mitt Romney's.  Note that Newt is not a villain, whereas Mitt Romney has turned him into an enemy of the state.  All these politicians actually believe that they can make the country better.  

Monday/Tues  1250A  (950P Pacific Time): Exeunt.   Heather Perlberg, Bloomberg, in re: tech Silicon Valley hiring MBAs and Sales.

..  ..  .. 

Music

Hour 1
Dexter: Season 1 by various artists

Hour 2
There Will Be Blood by Johnny Greenwood
Batman: Arkham City by various artists

Hour 3
Prince of Persia: Sands of Time by Harry Gregson-Williams
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 by Hans Zimmer

Hour 4
The Ghost Writer by Alexandre Desplat
Dexter: Season 1 by various artists
Thirteen Days by Trevor Jones

 

 

 

 

JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW podcast link:

http://wabcradio.com/sectional.asp?id=33447

 

Co-hoats: 

Mary Kissel, WSJ Editorial board

Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents

Thursday 905P Eastern Time: Mary Kissel, in re: Investors abandoning  copper, cotton,  and crude amid plunging prices and soaring volatility. Investors and traders reduced bets on 13 key commodity contracts by 19% in 2011.  Pres Obama as Jimmy Stewart (Mr Smith Goes to Washington).

Thursday 920P Eastern Time:  Andrew Shearer, Lowy Institute in Sydney, in re:  Australian PM and Minority Leader at Canberra Australia Day ceremony: roughed up by local, urban activists supporting rights and greater recognition for Aboriginals; they surrounded a restaurant, chanted and "carried on"; riot police called in; security had to encircle PM Gillard with shields and race her to a squad car.   Claim that Tony Ebbert spoke of the tent protest, which has been there for forty years and which he suggested might have made its point and could decamp, was a threat to tear it down. Aboriginal elders across Australia decried the violence, disavowed it.

A group of Papua, New Guinea, soldiers mutinied, placing the country's military chief, Brig. Gen. Francis Agwi, under house arrest in an apparently bloodless raid. 

Thursday 935P Eastern Time:  Rick Outzen, Pensacola Independent Daily News (from the Redneck Riviera - "You can't say that on air!"), in re: Santorum in Florida in the Panhandle on Thursday. Mitt on Saturday and Newt on Monday. They'll be flippin' flapjacks and kissing babies. Florida megachurches favoring Gingrich over Romney - apparently in an anti-Mormon movement. Ron Paul has an emotional following.  Jeb Bush is a big factor. Rick Scott is the kiss of death. Rubio slammed Newt for his anti-Romney anti-immigration ads; Gingrich hinted that Rubio might be a VP candidate. JB: Two mud-wrestlers; can we call the whole thing off and start fresh? Jeb Bush?  How 'bout "none of the above"?  RO: How did the Republican Party become so dysfunctional?  JB: a number of possible younger candidates decided to sit this out and wait for 2016.  As of this moment, Gingrich looks likely in the Panhandle.

Tracing SuperPAC media buys.

Thursday 950P Eastern Time:  Mary Kissel, in re:  FHFA, Mr DiMarco: head regulator oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, both now in conservatorship. Feds want to expands these but cannot, as Ed DiMarco is protecting them legally. Pres Obama said in SOTU that he'd do an end-run and go directly to the FHA.

FHA reaches back to the Depression; Fannie and Freddie are more recent. All guarantee home loans. FHA is effectively becoming the new federal piggy bank. They're running huge delinquency rates. Ed Pinto at AEI is tracking this problem.  JB:  "Your mortgage is the same to this president as your vote."

 

Thursday 1005P (705P Pacific Time):  Malcolm Hoenlein, in re: ArabLeague has a plan on Syria, will present to the UN; spectators to Syria - deeply failed mission, now extended for another month; Russia will oppose action sanctioning Syria; Russia has $5bil of weapons in pipeline to Syria incl YAK130s; MIG 29s, missiles, and even a submarine. Assad was encouraged to hand over power to his deputy - considered evil - and Assad refused. Russia to be designated to offer Assad abris. Petition to remove Syria from UN bodies dealing with human rights. Russia and China won; move in any fashion vs Syria, since its protector is Iran. Today another 55 Syrians killed in Deraa, Damascus suburb.  Much internal strife, incl among members of uprising.  Hezbollah guards protecting Assad and Syrian army bases (photographs thereof).  Two hundred cars and buses leaving Lebanon to a pro-Assad rally in Syria: for warm bodies, and physical protection of Assad. All the region reads the weakness of the West. Four trucks of potent weapons caught in Turkey going form Iran to Syria - blatant violations and they thumb their noses.  

Thursday 1020P (720P Pacific Time):  Jonathan Schanzer, FDD, in re: Fatah/Hamas and status of Israeli-Palestinian talks. Noisy delegitimization campaign vs Israel - tried to be a nonvoting observer, like the Vatican - PA couldn't quite get the nine votes they needed in the Security Council, so they went through UNESCO.  UNESCO accepted the Palestinians as a proto-state - automatically defunding UNESO and destroying the organization in the process. The "peace negotiations" have been and are a wretched farce.  PA demands everything (no Israeli state, for one thing), won't talk otherwise; Israelis decline to commit suicide but glad to speak otherwise.  PA says it'll look like the anti-Apartheid divestiture campaign.  Say they now have 8-3/4 votes in SC. A credit to the US and Israel - a new sense of alarm. PA always says that if they don't get what they want they'll link with Hamas.  Hamas flirting with th Palestinian Islamic Jihad  Hams is a train wreck because its headquarters in Damascus is under siege, it lacks overall security,  is in a mess. Survival issue.  If they joined, wd it be Hamas joining Fatah or Fatah joining Hamas?  "Hamas is not a very transparent organization" - understatement of the epoch.

Thursday 1035P (735P Pacific Time):  Malcolm Hoenlein, in re: rial now 22,000 to the dollar, often drops 5% in a day. Food subsidies removed; Teheran govt can't afford them. In July, the European sanctions take effect. Russian is calling for a mtg of P5+1. Ahmadinejad travels incessantly,now toPakistan. , looking for investment in Iranian oil sector. Iranian funds to Hamas and Syria are radically diminished. Possible that the Iranian opposition - being tortured, beaten, killed - may return to the streets in this economic slough.

Saudi Peninsula: Bahrain is an obvious target, as it led the opposition to Saudis.  Saudi Eastern Province today: serious demonstrations (fomented by Iran) on which the police may have opened fire. Long dreaded by Saudis and everyone.

What will ISrael do about IRan?  No evidence that it'll do anything. Working instead with UN, US, Europe, to try to rein in Iran from making threats vs its neighbors.  Israeli defense minister today: Three considerations - 1. Israel's ability to act? (i.e., cause enough damage to delay the nuclear program?)  2 Necessity: all alternatives considered and tested?  3. Does Israel have overt or tacit support from the US and others, does it have intl legitimacy?

Malcolm was in North Carolina - visited Jonathan Pollard, who's been in jail for 20 years; has serious medical maladies; served 'way disporportionately. Even the guards treat him with respect.

Azerbaijan: caught a hit squad reporting to Iran intending to kill a rabbi.

Thursday 1050P (750P Pacific Time):  Robert Satloff, Washington Institute, in re: Egypt. Eighty-eight million people in a nation possibly heading toward economic collapse: "the worst failed state in history." Egyptians now desperate for stability - see the Muslim Brotherhood as relatively clean and not corrupt, so it got 47% of the vote, and the Salafis got another 20%.  MB now has the power and will take the state where it cares to. Has fought for power for seventy-plus years,, will not drop its core demands, incl Sharia law. MB fears the Saudi-variety Salafis more than anyone else, so will turn to the right to absorb those voters.  

Brutal oppression of Copts (10  to 15% of the population); they go back to the origins of Egypt, predating the Muslim, and its MB policy to make them all leave. Also, have $17 to 18 bil in bank reserves, no tourism, no direct foreign investment - and not likely to the MB/Salafist government!  Tinderbox. 

Sinai is the real challenge.

 

Thursday 1105P (805P Pacific Time):  Daniel Freedman, Soufan Group and co-author of The Black Banners [9/11 and alQ], in re: Syria. Arab League has a plan at Security Council to remove Assad and change the regime.  Can this work? Probably not - Russia declines and will veto. Unwise: as Assad leaves, the Muslim Brotherhood will take over.  Arab League mission has obviously failed. What to do now?  Ariel Sharon said he preferred the devil he knows - Assad - to the other devil, the Muslim Brothers, who'll be even more hostile to Israel and the West than the Assads are.  Turkey vs Syria: possible military conflict at the border; big factor is what outside powers - US, Russia, China - do.  When people are in a corner, they take drastic steps, q.v., Gaddafi; Burmese generals. Libya and Egypt: we have to be very careful of what we unleash.  JB: Assad is not welcome anywhere; a great career move would be death.  DF: Simply see what his father did.  Cf, Mugabe and Kims in DPRK. Will do anything to heir own people. Very hard for an opposition to remove a tyrant, esp someone who;ds happy to mow down his own people; Gadaffi removed only because of outside intervention, NATO.

Thursday 1120P (820P Pacific Time):    Yaakov Katz, military correspondent & defense analyst for The Jerusalem Post, & Israel correspondent for Jane's Defence Weekly, in re:  Hamas moved some of its weapons productions lines to Sinai because Israel can't bomb: wd be a violation of Egyptian territory.  The 1979 demilitarization treaty notwithstanding, Israel has allowed Egypt to move troops int Sinai. Gas from Egypt to Israel - pipeline been blown up repeatedly. Almost every night people spotted on Egyptian side: smugglers? Terrorists?

Libya has opened storehouses and arms caches Hamas couldn't have dreamt of  - SA24 shoulder-fired missiles now in Gaza Strip. Egypt has caught a lot of stockpiles - high-quality explosives. Gaza is nothing like what it was during Cast Lead in 2009; now, sophisticated Russian long-range arms, mortars, a huge volume of greater power.  Israel has the capacity to deal with all this, but it's noteworthy. Trophy shoots up [chaff?] against new antitank missiles. Joint US-Israel exercise cancelled: preparing for something bigger?  Also wouldn't ant to implicate the US.

Thursday 1135P (835P Pacific Time):  Melissa Eddy, International Herald Tribune, in Berlin,  in re: Mein Kampf: not for selling in Germany. Bavarian court intervenes and stops annotated version in a magazine.

Thursday 1150P (850P Pacific Time):  Dan Henninger, WSJ, in re: GOP practices MA - mutually-assured destruction - for the nomination.

 

Thursday/Fri 1205A (905 Pacific Time):  Roya Hakakian, author, Assassins of the Turquoise Palace, I of II

Thursday/Fri  1220A (920 Pacific Time):  Roya Hakakian, author, Assassins of the Turquoise Palace, II of II

Thursday/Fri  1235A (935P Pacific Time):   Andrew Shearer, Lowy Institute in Sydney, in re:  Australian PM and Minority Leader at Canberra Australia Day ceremony: roughed up by local, urban activists supporting rights and greater recognition for Aboriginals; they surrounded a restaurant, chanted and "carried on"; riot police called in; security had to encircle PM Gillard with shields and race her to a squad car.   Claim that Tony Ebbert spoke of the tent protest, which has been there for forty years and which he suggested might have made its point and could decamp, was a threat to tear it down. Aboriginal elders across Australia decried the violence, disavowed it. 

A group of Papua, New Guinea, soldiers mutinied, placing the country's military chief, Brig. Gen. Francis Agwi, under house arrest in an apparently bloodless raid. 

Thursday/Fri  1250A  (950P Pacific Time): Exeunt.  Jack Ewing, International Herald Tribune, fro Davos, inre; the mood of worry about capitalism, democracy, Europe, and China.

..  ..  ..  

Music

Hour 1

Downtown Abbey by various artists
Proposition by Nick Cave and Warren Ellis
True Grit by Carter Burwell

Hour 2

Game of Thrones by Ramin Djawadi
Defiance by James Newton Howard

Hour 3

Flight of the Phoenix by Marco Beltrami
Valkyrie by John Ottman

Hour 4

Munich by John Williams
Proposition by Nick Cave and Warren Ellis

..  ..  ..  

CME striking Earth magnetic field, Aurora over Norway, Jan 24. 

JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW podcast link:

http://wabcradio.com/sectional.asp?id=33447

 

Co-host: Cordon Chang, Forbes.com and The Daily

Wednesday 905P Eastern Time (605P Pacific Time):  Patrick Chovanek,  Tsinghua University, in re:  Chinese economy. Last quarter of 2012 China's reserves declined; turns out that a lot of money came in during November, left in December.  People are concerned about a hard landing in China, that the real estate bubble has just popped.  Outside investors and domestic capital all not as likely to be invested in China.  Land has been the lynchpin. Almost very loan made here is on the basis of real estate as collateral - even to local government; on assumption of ever-rising land prices. Hundreds of recent land auctions have failed. A lot of the gov't non-enforcement of obligations - enforcement of intellectual property laws, for example - work to the disadvantage of China

Wednesday 920P Eastern Time (620P Pacific Time):  Rick Fisher, International Assessment and Strategy Center, in re: South China Sea.  People's Liberation Army Navy considers this to be its own swimming hole.  Ergo, the Philippines have invited the US Navy back to, perhaps, Subic Bay.  Southeast Asian nations are alarmed at China's expansionism and want the US to show more backbone.  I reaction, China seems to go hot and cold: its press "all syrupy," calls for cooperation; however, after US and Philippines have a joint exercise to protect Philippine oil rigs, China will probably field another navy action.  Australia depends greatly on maintaining freedom of navigation in the seas - critical for Australia's economy. China increasing the number of its subs, maritime patrol aircraft, bombers, amphibious navy; all kinds of missiles, supported by a network of satellites.  Philippines kicked the US out twenty years ago, suddenly notices that it doesn't happen to have a navy just as China becomes aggressively offensive.  

Wednesday 935P Eastern Time (635P Pacific Time): Hotel Mars. Dr Richard Obousy, president of the Project Icarus nonprofit: Icarus Interstellar; senior scientist; also David Livingston, The Space Show; in re:  intend to accomplish interstellar flight by the year 2100.  Five-year, theoretical design study for this probe. Need to train a new generation of scientists, generate interest, design the probe, and do a technology comparison with Project (Bayless?) of the 1970s.  Nuclear thermal rockets probably represent the next phase. Fission rockets perhaps not.  Chemical rocket limits speed; nuclear thermal rocket propulsion doubles the speed.  New tungsten-based fuel emits hydrogen, unlike the old radioactive releases.  With current chemical fuel, wd take 60,000 years to get interstellar. Fusion rocket, top speed at 12% of speed of light - wd take 50 years.  Beamed energy propulsion.  "Once the envelope has been penetrated, future generations will" shorten even that.  We're a 100% volunteer effort; massive private and industrial support. I hear things about Russia, don't know much; interest for nuclear propulsion is keenest in the US. Goal may not come in to fruition for a century  or later. NIRVA - some was stored in Monterrey, California; most of it is historical; also in Nevada test site museum.  New advances are radically safer. IcarusInterstellar.org

Wednesday 950P Eastern Time (650P Pacific Time): John Bussey, assistant managing editor, WSJ, in re: it now costs $69 to buy a $39 modest automobile tire because of tariffs and trade wars with China. Began in 2009 by Pres Obama. Diminution of Chinese exports led to a deluge of tires from Korea and Japan.  The increase flows right through the distribution channels to the consumer. How much has he US got in tariffs? $700 million - a vast proportion of which was passed on to the consumer.  Trade Enforcement Unit invoked by POTUS during SOTU last night.  China does oblige foreign firms operating in China to transfer technology, in violation of the WTO.

"A few weeks ago, the CEO of Master Lock told me that it now makes business sense for him to bring jobs back home. Today, for the first time in fifteen years, Master Lock's unionized plant in Milwaukee is running at full capacity."  An interesting article in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel this month explains that costs in China have risen because of labor unrest, higher shipping rates -- and weakening of the yuan against the dollar because of political pressure by the United States. 

 

Wednesday 1005P Eastern  (705P Pacific Time):  Wangchuk Shakabpa, board member, US Tibet Committee, in re:  US Special Ops rescue two NGO kidnappees overnight, but - an entire people shanghaied by a thug army are still without help, the Tibetans.  Chinese military police fired on civilians in Drago, killed some people, wounded 49. Beat up another bunch. Rising defiance of Tibetans, who now parade in public with images of His Holiness the Dalai Lama. Increased repression and martial law, inboth cenral and easern Tibet. Theory was that it'd fore Tibetans to back down - wiht he opposite resiult. Looksa s though Beijing has lost the ability to influence Tibetans and now can only use guns and brutality.  When Beijin uses rce vs Han, it's nonlethal; v Tibetans, it's killer.  Seventeen self-immolations in Tibet caused Tibetans not to celebrate Chinese new year, as the govt was trying to force them to do, but many citizens refused and will celebrate the Tibetan Lothar. From Feb 20 to March 31 Beijing slams shut the door to foreign visitors. "Brutal, savage and horrific -  China needs to keep it a secret from the outside world."   HH is said to be secure, he presided over a Kalachakra festival in India recently while there were rumors of Chinese murderers coming in to assassinate him.

"Tibetans fired upon in protest in China - police officers opened fire on Tibetan protesters in western China on Monday in the largest violent confrontation in ethnic Tibetan areas of China since 2008."

Wednesday 1020P Eastern (720P Pacific Time): Toshi Yoshihara, Naval War College and author, Red Star over the Pacific, in re: escalation of China's war of words with Japan on the Senkakus (islands near Japan, claimed by Taiwan and China; by China, aggressively).  Beijing, via the Peoples Daily, has just labeled those islands (Diaoyutai Islands, in Chinese) a "core interest," elevating the islands to the same level as Taiwan, including all-out war; meaning compromise is not possible.  Highlight Beijing's new aggressiveness in the South--the South China Sea--and the north--the Senkakus during the same night.  "Senkakus today, Okinawa tomorrow."  China creating a series of revisionist historical narraties. Senkakus could be an appetizer. China has been transferring some policy decisions to nonmilitary assets to probe how Japan and others will react. Creating a managed conflict with Japan,, turn up the heat whenever they want, and to overcome Japan by fatiguing the Foreign Minstry.   Senkakus largely uninhabitable. Strategic placement at the crossroads of Mainland, Japan, and Taiwan, and tiiny. A symbolic struggle over sovereignty.  Vide: last year's trawler incident. 

Wednesday 1035P Eastern  (735P Pacific Time):  Vikas Bajaj, NYT, in re: Salman Rushdie's cancellation of his attendance at an Indian literary festival in response to sudden security fears is the latest in a series of blows to free speech in India that have included a court challenge to Internet sites Google and Facebook.  Just a month earlier, India's minister overseeing technology and education, Kapil Sibal, suggested that sites should screen content before it is uploaded, a proposal that he and other officials later backed away from. Executives for social networking sites said that, in private meetings, Mr. Sibal was particularly incensed about unflattering and derogatory references to the leader of the ruling Congress party, Sonia Gandhi. "We have to take care of the sensibilities of our people," Mr. Sibal told reporters during a news conference at his home in New Delhi in early December. "Cultural ethos is very important to us." 

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Reading The Satanic Verses in India: Is it Illegal?

Human rights activist says: authors did not read from the book itself, but read from an article quoting The Satanic Verses.

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Wednesday 1050P Eastern (750P Pacific Time):    Joseph Sternberg, Asia WSJ, in re:  Objects in the rearview mirror may be closer than they appear, but China's rapid growth means objects in the rear view of the world's economic powerhouse are actually shrinking at a rapid rate. In 2011, China's gross domestic product came in at 47.1 trillion yuan ($7.4 trillion). That represented nominal growth of 17.5% from 2010, a blistering pace that makes many of the problems of debt and credit that trouble investors and hang over valuations for Chinese stocks appear a little more manageable. Take local-government debt. The government's auditor put the number at 10.7 trillion yuan at the end of 2010. That was equal to 26% of China's GDP. In 2011, it shrank to 22%. Even if weaker demand and reduced inflation mean a slightly lower nominal growth rate in 2012, by the end of the year local-government debt could shrink to 19% of GDP. The debt may be creeping up, but not enough to push the ratio in the wrong direction. Investors also worry about China's credit binge, which saw the ratio of loans to GDP soar from 96% at the end of 2008 to 119% at the end of 2010, as loan growth ran far ahead of GDP. An expanding economy means that ratio is also moving in the right direction--down to 116% in 2011. That reduction reflects the fact that banks' loan books are expanding, though not as fast as GDP. 

 

Wednesday 1105P  Eastern (805P Pacific Time):  The Black Banners: The Inside Story of 9/11 and the War Against al-Qaeda by Ali H. Soufan and Daniel Freedman , 1 of 4

Wednesday 1120P Eastern (820P Pacific Time):  The Black Banners: The Inside Story of 9/11 and the War Against al-Qaeda by Ali H. Soufan and Daniel Freedman 

Wednesday 1135P Eastern  (835P Pacific Time):  The Black Banners: The Inside Story of 9/11 and the War Against al-Qaeda by Ali H. Soufan and Daniel Freedman 

Wednesday 1150P Eastern  (850P Pacific Time):  The Black Banners: The Inside Story of 9/11 and the War Against al-Qaeda by Ali H. Soufan and Daniel Freedman 

 

Wednesday/Thurs 1205A  Eastern (905 Pacific Time):  David Kirkpatrick, NYT at Cairo, in re: Arab Spring one year later

Wednesday/Thurs  1220A Eastern (920 Pacific Time): Landon Thomas, NYT, in re: Greek negotiations continue

Wednesday/Thurs  1235A  Eastern (935P Pacific Time):  Hotel Mars. Dr Richard Obousy, president of the Project Icarus nonprofit: Icarus Interstellar; senior scientist; also David Livingston, The Space Show; in re:  intend to accomplish interstellar flight by the year 2100.  Five-year, theoretical design study for this probe. Need to train a new generation of scientists, generate interest, design the probe, and do a technology comparison with Project (Bayless?) of the 1970s.  Nuclear thermal rockets probably represent the next phase. Fission rockets perhaps not.  Chemical rocket limits speed; nuclear thermal rocket propulsion doubles the speed.  New tungsten-based fuel emits hydrogen, unlike the old radioactive releases.  With current chemical fuel, wd take 60,000 years to get interstellar. Fusion rocket, top speed at 12% of speed of light - wd take 50 years.  Beamed energy propulsion.  "Once the envelope has been penetrated, future generations will" shorten even that.  We're a 100% volunteer effort; massive private and industrial support. I hear things about Russia, don't know much; interest for nuclear propulsion is keenest in the US. Goal may not come in to fruition for a century  or later. NIRVA - some was stored in Monterrey, California; most of it is historical; also in Nevada test site museum.  New advances are radically safer.  IcarusInterstellar.org

Wednesday/Thurs  1250A  Eastern (950P Pacific Time): Exeunt.  Mark Schroeder, Stratfor, from Capetown, in re: Nigerian troubles, Boko Haram, Kano troubles.

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Music

Hour 1

Shaolin by Nicolas Errera

Battlestar Gallactica: Season 1 by Bear McCreary

Hour 2

 

 

JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW podcast link:

http://wabcradio.com/sectional.asp?id=33447

 

Tuesday 905P Eastern Time:  State of the Union speech, Pres Barack Obama

Tuesday 920P Eastern Time:  State of the Union speech, Pres Barack Obama

Tuesday 935P Eastern Time:  State of the Union speech, Pres Barack Obama

Tuesday 950P Eastern Time:  State of the Union speech, Pres Barack Obama .

 

Tuesday 1005P (705P Pacific Time):  .State of the Union speech, Pres Barack Obama .

Tuesday 1020P (720P Pacific Time): .  Larry Johnson, No Quarter blog, in re: the president's speech

Tuesday 1035P (735P Pacific Time): .Lara Brown, Villanova, in re: the president's speech and Mitch Daniels's response

Tuesday 1050P (750P Pacific Time): .Rep Thaddeus McCotter (MI-11), in re: the president's speech. "He wants us to look forward because of the failure of his administration in the past three years." Ford Motor did not take bailout money; the president who authorized the bridge loan to the auto industry was Pres Bush. In Pres Obama's selective critique . . . a bunch of employment bills bottle up in the Senate. 

 

Tuesday 1105P (805P Pacific Time): .John Fund, American Spectator; Salena Zito, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, in re: 

Tuesday 1120P (820P Pacific Time): .Bret Stephens, WSJ, in re: weak field for the Republican presidential nomination 

Tuesday 1135P (835P Pacific Time): .Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis by James Rickards - 1 of 2

Tuesday 1150P (850P Pacific Time): .Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis by James Rickards - 2 of 2

 

Tuesday/Wed 1205A (905 Pacific Time): .Aaron Klein, WABC, in re: Russian arms to Syria; Libyan arms to Gaza.

Tuesday/Wed  1220A (920 Pacific Time): . Seb Gorka, FDD, in re: Cairo, Sanaa, Damascus: "Arab Spring" fails

Tuesday/Wed  1235A (935P Pacific Time): .Robert Zimmerman, behindtheblack.com, in re: magnetic field, aurora; Titan; astronaut corps recruiting; Romney's vs Gringrich's space policy.

Tuesday/Wed  1250A  (950P Pacific Time): Exeunt. Henry Miller, Hoover, in re: Labs suspend research on killer aerosol.

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Dunes of Mars.

Music

Hour 1

All the King's Men by James Horner

 

Hour 2

Iron Lady by Thomas Newman

 

Hour 3

Assassin's Creed by Jesper Kyd

Thin Blue Line by Philip Glass

 

Hour 4

Frost/Nixon by Hans Zimmer

Star Trek by Michael Giacchino

All the King's Men by James Horner

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