Tuesday 6 November 2012

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(Photo above: Victory in Chicago, 2012.)

JOHN BATCHELOR

Co-host: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com

Tuesday 905P Eastern Time:  Mona Charen, NRO, and Salena Zito, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, in re: tonight's election

Tuesday 920P Eastern Time:  Lara M Brown, Villanova, and Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal editorial board, in re: tonight's election

Tuesday 935P Eastern Time:  Larry Johnson, No Quarter, and Jim McTague, Barron's Washington, in re:   How does Pres Obama work out a common goal with Congress – or the markets will panic and we'll go into a recession.  Virginia, Florida and Ohio still not determined; there's a path to 270 for each candidate.

Tuesday 950P Eastern Time: Aaron Task, Yahoo Finance editor, and David Drucker, Roll Call, in re:  does either man have a mandate? No; Romney looked to be the better one to compromise but Pres Obama may decide his legacy will not to be to drive the country over a fiscal cliff.  Richard Mourdoch's loss is a blow for the Republican Party.   Wisconsin and Mass: Mass is an uphill climb for Republicans, so loss by Scott Brown is not totally unexpected. Missouri:  undetermined; Akins still ahead? Dunno numbers.  Senate: 53 majority for Harry Reid: more authority than now? No.  As soon as we have a winner, the next thing markets will be looking for is a sign that we won't go over the fiscal cliff. Nobody really has a mandate here.

Tuesday 1005P (705P Pacific Time):  Taegan Goddard, Political Wire, and John Fund, National Review, in re: People have sent about $3 billion on advertising and we are where we were.  . . .    Ultimately, Boehner will have to make some kind of bargain.

Tuesday 1020P (720P Pacific Time): Thaddeus McCotter, Detroiter par excellence, guitarist, and recovering Congressbum, in re: FL, NC, VA, OH – all undetermined. Mourdoch, Aken and Brown all gone.  Senate looks to be staying Democratic. Flawed candidates. With both sides lined up to get at each other, centrist get shot in the primaries.  Virginia: closely contested race called for  ______.  The House is the Republican part of the tripartite govt.  Lesson?  Compare Senate to House: redistricting is the crucial difference. Republicans pick up seats. Allan Grayson returns in Florida.

Tuesday 1035P (735P Pacific Time): Greg Zuckerman, WSJ, and Brendan Conway, Barron's on ETFs, in re: Dominantly Democratic Senate, same as before. Traders: a quick pivot to issues relating to fiscal cliff.  Look at the futures tonight: hedging against a partisan envt; we can drive off the Thelma and Louise version and fall over the cliff. Now a higher possibility tat it'll be dangerous and painful.  Mini-rally this afternoon as mkts were hoping for a Romney win. Now, a sober view suggests more gridlock and inability to save the nation from oncoming problems.  Asians were thinking, "No way wiil DC let the dividend tax tripe overnight, and all the rest" – thought that Washington couldn’t be that self-defeating. "Cynical first, cynical last, cynical always wins."  This may finally kill the optimism movement.  China has been lecturing us for a long time on governance; they may holler now, but they’re not even tackling their ghastly problems. Have a look in six months. Fiscal cliff: look for a fiscal bridge – lots of bz deals have to be done before 31 Dec.  John Paulson: gold is selling off; does in now spike back?  All DC is doing is printing money, won’t take the punchbowl back soon, so yeah, might as well buy gold.   Gold bugs will be really happy in half a year. "Print money, bail out, and get re-elected"? It'll come back to bite us, but the mkts care only abt right now. Also: fracking revolution.

Tuesday 1050P (750P Pacific Time): Joseph Sternberg, WSJ Asia, and Jim McTague, in re: tonight's election

Tuesday 1105P (805P Pacific Time):  Gene Countryman, KNSS Wichita, and Larry Johnson, No Quarter, in re: Florida Panhandle: lots of retired mil people for Romney; probably recount [18.000 absentee ballots]. Will take VA, Missouri, Ohio; if he takes Colorado, he'll win – if not, he won't.  Kansas is redder than a Coca-Cola can, but Romney – there's not much education in the second kick of a mule . . . For anyone who voted for Obama: what did they expect?

There'll be a Democrat in the White House; all UNCH [unchanged, in market crawls].  If the republicans can’t get this done with this president, they need either a new leadership of a new line of work. Recounts in Florida and Ohio – how long will they take?  "First, we have to stop laughing."  Sequestration will cut into the military as much as Tojo did. If they try to solve sequestration with taxes, we'll go into recession.

Tuesday 1120P (820P Pacific Time):  Salena Zito, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, and Lara M Brown, Villanova, in re:  Republicans will say, "We've run two moderates in a row and they failed; now we need to run a real conservative."  Electorate is 54% female; Republicans sported two candidates with bizarre opinions.  Republicans will need to recalibrate to stay in the game in future.

Tuesday 1135P (835P Pacific Time): Charles Burton, Brock University (Canada), Charles Ortel, Newport Value Partners, in re: Europeans have supported Obama for mythical reasons. Drahgi will be happy with an Obama win, but the real thing is, what's Israel gonna do? Obama, Europe and Chinese are printing money at breathtaking rates; Soros and Paulson will benefit the most. Monumental policy failure whose results will be seen immed: awful stock market; and Israel will probably move right away. Keystone XL Pipeline.   Our PM was surprised at resistance to putting it through.  If we don't get the pipeline will cause a major problem in US-Canada relations.  Possibly we can bld a pipeline northward, esp with Arctic waters warming, but people can take it to the courts and block it.  Sophisticate investors see that he solution is not the US simply imposing more taxes on rich; we spend 5.6 trillion annually; investors have been moving money out of equities and out of the country.  Romney has not conceded Ohio.

Tuesday 1150P (850P Pacific Time): Peter Navarro, director of the film, Death by China, and Stephen Yates, DC International Advisory, in re: PN: Watershed election in that it was race that put things over the top; voters not thinking about jobs.  Obama won not by proposing a good program but by blaming Romney for [everything].

Tuesday/Wed 1205A (905 Pacific Time):

 John Avlon, CNN and The Daily Beast: won by Obama campaign's ground game. Demographically a rough road, but early-voting efforts made all the difference.

 Devin Nunes, CA-22, in re: 290 Electoral College vote ; Obama wins.  Note: Portuguese Hall in Hanford, California: Devin has just won by two-thirds of the vote; still have two very tight races.  May have one pick-up. Nationally, 194 Republicans.  Pelosi said she'd gain 7 seats, whereas apparently we've gained one seat.  All not clear, likely recounts. Initiatives in California: . . .  .   San Joaquin Valley needs water. President's war on coal. A fascinating four years.

Tuesday/Wed  1220A (920 Pacific Time):  Jeff Bliss, The Bliss Index, and Henry Miller, Hoover, in re: President wins with 290 electoral votes.California

Tuesday/Wed  1235A (935P Pacific Time):  Bill Whalen, Hoover, in re:  lessons for the Republican Party? immigration policy is not friendly, and gender discussions harsh and foolish, White vs not-white  republicans depended on electorate being 75% white, when in fact it was 71%. Makes a world of difference in Florida, inter al.  Next Dem who comes along will not be Barack Obama. Three kinds of Republicans: social conservatives ad foreign policy conservatives; those who say Romney wasn't enough Tea Party; the governors, esp Chris Christie – more centrist and national positions.  Liz Warren running in a state where Obama will win by hundreds of thousands of votes, Scott Brown ran a good race. McMahon [not a serious candidate{?}].    Will partisanship be rewarded on the Hill?  Insanity = doing the same thing over and over expecting different results – Einstein is smiling.  Fiscal cliff sequestration, retire the US Navy, and all the budget correction will occur at once.  Somebody has to blink – Boehner? Obama?  Also, Obama ran away from his party; cut the legs out from under Pelosi; Republicans had their has handed to them in the Senate.  Can you get a carpool of moderates in the House? Something has to affect Washington; a massive drop in the markets would do it.

Tuesday/Wed  1250A  (950P Pacific Time): Exeunt. Devin Nunes, CA-22, in re: Valledejo wins.  Mourdoch and Aken? If you’re talking about rape, you're gonna lose. We need to run young, business-minded conservatives who appeal to first-generation Americans.  The Dems  have come up with the term "Latino"; south of the border, no one knows what that means. The people I represent call themselves Mexican-Americans, Salvadoran-Americans, Guatemalan-Americans.

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Music (using New York City broadcast times)

9-hour:  Appaloosa; True Grit

10-hour:  The Alamo; The Big Country; Gettysburg; Monte Walsh

11-hour:  Wag the Dog; Last of the Mohicans

midnight hour:  Knight and Day

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