Thursday 25 October 2012

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Photo, above: Medics carry a man wounded by a mortar shell fired from the Gaza Strip, for treatment in Soroka hospital in Beersheba, southern Israel, Wednesday, Oct. 24, 2012. Rockets and mortars from Gaza have pummeled southern Israel, drawing Israeli airstrikes that killed a Palestinian militant. Israeli police say more than 30 rockets and mortars landed in Israel early Wednesday, following a volley the night before. (AP Photo /Dudu Grunshpan)

JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW 

Co-hosts: Mary Kissel, WSJ editorial board; Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents

Thursday 905P Eastern Time:  Larry Johnson, No Quarter, in re:  Benghazi: what happened, and the timeline. Iranian false flag operation? Had there been an AC-130 gunship, it would have been a different outcome. Panetta today said we didn't want to send anyone in till we know what happened – absurd! Once you have personnel down on the ground and in trouble, you go save them.  Same thinking by Gens Dempsey and Ham. Shame on them.

Thursday 920P Eastern Time:  Michael Ledeen, FDD, Washington Times, et al., in re: bilateral negotiations between US and Iran: going on for more than 30 years, nonstop, all the time.    The ayatollahs aren’t esp well disposed toward Obama – they hate the US and want to kill us, and he's one of us. Mr Obama and people around him think that if they can get a deal and announce it before the elections, that'd be good for the president.  I disagree. The White House denial said: No plans to meet with Iranians after he elections. It said naught about meetings now. Rumor this evening: a very important Iranian has flown into Washington and is now meeting at the White House.   Teheran claims that Obama has already recognized Ian's right to a nuclear program. Israel: As soon as Iran has the capacity to assemble a nuclear weapon, the red line is crossed;  US: No, once they have a weapon the red line is crossed.  Mr Obama had secret emissaries meeting since his campaign; failed, because Iran doesn’t want a deal, they want to destroy us. The Supreme Leader of the Devils Khamenei's survival threatened by a deal because internal power blocs oppose a deal with the US. Why wd  Pres Obama think he can succeed where all previous US presidents failed? US cd restrain the Israelis till Iran has a bomb. 

Thursday 935P Eastern Time:  Salena Zito, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, and Lara Brown, Villanova, in re:  swing state polls. In Ohio, Cuyahoga, Franklin and Hamilton Counties! Calling Romney in effect a right-wing maniac, parallel to Gingrich, may have been Bill Clinton's idea but it was above all the advice of David Axelrod. Colorado is going Romney. Wisconsin: people underestimate the pride that Cheeseheads feel in having Paul Ryan on the ticket.

Thursday 950P Eastern Time:  Satyajit Das, author, Extreme Money and Traders Guns & Money, and Jeffersonian: "If you haven't annoyed someone in power, clearly you're doing something wrong"; in re: Debt is the new Ice Age that's broken out upon us'; will we ever see sunshine again? It’s reached places like China – huge amts of bank ending, reaching the limit of how much debt-fuelled  growth they can endure. Most of our growth in the past was debt-fuelled; inflation: most central banks think pumping money into the system will crate inflation – not so: monetary accommodation and the banking system too work, and underlying demand, and supply shortages. None of these really obtains now.  We’re trapped in the vicious cycle of trying to get out of the debt, as Japan has been dong, Will take decades. In Greece, govt allows old food to be sold cheaply.  Poverty.  Are we all Greeks now? No – the US is "the cleanest dirty shirt in the world" – can survive a bit longer than everyone else. US simply has to flood  the system w money – the Fed buys 60-70% of all Treasury debt;  $3-4trillion held overseas; if the Fed chairman can weaken the dollar, he can recapitalize the US by wiping out ¾ of US debt.  Unlike Greece, US is a powerhouse in aerospace, pharmaceuticals, technology.  Growth was a unique feature of the last 150 years – now a fable.

"The legacy of existing high debt levels will constrain economic activity. A large portion of current income is directed at servicing these borrowings, limiting consumption and investment. Ultimately, the easiest way to kick-start growth is to write off debt, removing this burden. But this would result in losses to lenders and investors, reducing wealth thereby also limiting consumption, investment and ultimately growth. A return to strong growth remains an article of political and economic belief. But as the philosopher Michel de Montaigne asked: 'How many things we regarded yesterday as articles of faith that seem to us only fables today?' ”

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9a50d5da-0e18-11e2-8b92-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2ADT0iiZD

Thursday 1005P (705P Pacific Time):  Malcolm Hoenlein, in re: Fordow – impenetrable installation inside a mountain, can’t be damaged by bunker-busters; avoids all sat surveillance; although monitoring of what’s entering; now 640 new centrifuges, to a total 2,800 centrifuges enriching to 20%, which is the key stage en route to the need 90% for military. Still have to do piping and other installation; French intell says it’s incontrovertibly proven that in 6 mos Iran has he capability to have a weapon.  Great Britain has refused US landing rights in advance of an attack on Iran.  Iraq: Maliki sends reinforcements to Iran via Karbala. Iran getting $50bil PA from oil.

Lebanese assassination. Hamas rockets. Sudanese bombing. Bilateral negotiation between the US and Iran: denied by White House, reaffirmed by New York Times: so many reports that something is definitely going on. Europe is afraid of being shut out; weaken sanctions regimes.  Catherine Ashton on 211 people hanged in Iran. 

Assassination of important person in Lebanon: Gen al Hassan, senior security chief; was chief facilitator of transfer of material into Syria.  May be the exploitation of a Sunni-Shiite _____.  A week before, Syrian papers excoriated him.  Hezbollah shooting 150 missiles daily into Israel? "Assad and Iranians want to make this a regional conflict."

Richard Falk calls for a boycott of companies doing business with Israel; is a 9/11 Truther; is special rapporteur in the Territories.

Thursday 1020P (720P Pacific Time): Mark Dubowitz, Foundation for Defense of Democracies  exec dir, in re: Iran.  Rumors that Velayati was in Washington today.

Nuclear red line: French say 6 most to nuclear capacity. The only govt that won’t acknowledge this is the US. Economic cripple date: will occur after the nuclear red line – meaning that the sanctions wont have worked.   French intell report used unusual language: "Absolute certainty" that Iran is 6 mos for nuclear weapons.   IAEA is in there every few weeks watching. Capacity from an enrichment perspective: very close. Economic side: Iran has $70-80il in forex reserves, till July 2014. We need to massively intensify the sanctions, prohibit all nonhumanitarian export to Iran, take away waivers in oil purchasing from Iran, et al.  What maters now is that the US will put its credibility on the line in negotiations with Iran; risky strategy won’t affect nuclear redline or economic cripple date. Devaluation of rial in Iran: balance of payments equation, $50 il in oil sales in only a 17% since 2010. Can last a long time. We have two months in which to accomplish [effective sanctions].

Thursday 1035P (735P Pacific Time): David Schenker, Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, in re: Hezbollah, Jordan. King Abdullah has been a good friend to the US; has a war to the north un Syria; has a restive population – Islamists, the Muslim Brotherhood success in Egypt, and pressure from the Heraq, traditionally supportive tribal groups now complaining about economics and corruption.   The basic problem is 30% unemployment; 80% of natl budget pays salaries - $9.7 bil, but $3 bil in deficit. Gas pipeline from Egypt keeps blowing up. Perceived lack of commitment by the regime to fight corruption. King has had a tie ear to concerns.  King just bought a $20 mil Airbus, which has caused displeasure.  Hezbollah cannot re-arm after the next war after Assad falls (as he will). Will inevitably be cornered y a probably Sunni state in Damascus, and Lebanese will no longer be cowed by them. Israel looking at a failure of Jordan: catastrophe. No monarchy has fallen yet; the GCC has drawn a line  - let the republics fall, but no monarchy may go.

Thursday 1050P (750P Pacific Time): Lee Smith, senior editor at The Weekly Standard. The author of The Strong Horse: Power, Politics, and the Clash of Arab Civilizations; in re: Lebanon paralyzed after the assassination of     . How can Iran ensure its power in Lebanon and Syria after Assad? By controlling Hezbollah.

Thursday 1105P (805P Pacific Time): Halil Karaveli, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center, Johns Hopkins, and Turkey Analyst editor, in re:  Turkey and the US have different goals in Turkey: US want to secure a pluralistic order, while Turkey wants a Sunni Muslim Brotherhood regime with no minority rights honored (esp Kurds).  Turkey trying to pull the US into this mess. Until recently, Turkey aimed at "zero problems with neighbors," but now has shifted t a more sectarian stance. Positioned vs the Shia axis – dangerous: when Turkey supports Sunni rebels in Syria, they in turn support the Kurdish rebels within Turkey. Turkey does not have its own house in order. Turkish foreign minister said, "We'll redesign the Middle East" – but good luck with that when you’re in disarray, yourself. Turks are against Erdogan's Syrian policy; eke several leading Islamist pundits, esp those close to Fetullah Gulan, B pillar in Turkey – although he lives in Pennsylvania! Power struggle raging in Turley: between Abdullah Gul, who wants to continue to be president post-2014, is the hope of the Fetullah Gul movement, vs Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Thursday 1120P (820P Pacific Time): Malcolm Hoenlein, in re: Richard Falk, has a long history of being anti-Israel, also anti-US, calls for boycott of firms doing business with Israel. Companies stand up to him and repudiate his words. Cd become the base for legal action vs the companies, such as Caterpillar. Gaza rockets: constant threat to people in the Negev, and two victims in Gaza. Part of Iran's efforts to increase regional insecurity. Movement toward unification among terrorist groups: 80 rockets in one day, hits 13% of the Israeli population (equivalent of 40 mil people o the Canadian border).  Visit of Qatari emir emboldens Hamas; Qatar promised $450mil, which peranently divide Hamas and Fatah/PA>  Sudan: Israeli jets flew 1900 km t bomb a rocket factory? 

Thursday 1135P (835P Pacific Time): Matt Bai, NYT, in re: did Clinton give bad advice to Obama: to attack Romney as right-wing? Sixty per cent of the bldg was destroyed; factory owned by the Iranian IRGC, which brought in missiles from Libya en route to Egypt to Gaza and Sinai. Exposes the real role of Sudan and Iran.  Israeli elections: 

Thursday 1150P (850P Pacific Time): Ying Ma, Yingma.org, in re: what does China make of the presidential debate and trade?

 

Thursday/Fri 1205A (905 Pacific Time): Larry Johnson, No Quarter, in re:  Benghazi: what happened, and the timeline. Iranian false flag operation? Had there been an AC-130 gunship, it would have been a different outcome. Panetta today said we didn't want to send anyone in till we know what happened – absurd! Once you have personnel down on the ground and in trouble, you go save them.  Same thinking by Gens Dempsey and Ham. Shame on them.

Thursday/Fri  1220A (920 Pacific Time): Michael Ledeen, FDD, Washington Times, et al., in re: bilateral negotiations between US and Iran: going on for more than 30 years, nonstop, all the time.    The ayatollahs aren’t esp well disposed toward Obama – they hate the US and want to kill us, and he's one of us. Mr Obama and people around him think that if they can get a deal and announce it before the elections, that'd be good for the president.  I disagree. The White House denial said: No plans to meet with Iranians after he elections. It said naught about meetings now. Rumor this evening: a very important Iranian has flown into Washington and is now meeting at the White House.  Teheran claims that Obama has already recognized Ian's right to a nuclear program. Israel: As soon as Iran has the capacity to assemble a nuclear weapon, the red line is crossed;  US: No, once they have a weapon the red line is crossed.  Mr Obama had secret emissaries meeting since his campaign; failed, because Iran doesn’t want a deal, they want to destroy us. The Supreme Leader of the Devils Khamenei's survival threatened by a deal because internal power blocs oppose a deal with the US. Why wd  Pres Obama think he can succeed where all previous US presidents failed? US cd restrain the Israelis till Iran has a bomb.

Thursday/Fri  1235A (935P Pacific Time): Salena Zito, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, and Lara Brown, Villanova, in re:  swing state polls. In Ohio, Cuyahoga, Franklin and Hamilton Counties! Calling Romney in effect a right-wing maniac, parallel to Gingrich, may have been Bill Clinton's idea but it was above all the advice of David Axelrod. Colorado is going Romney. Wisconsin: people underestimate the pride that Cheeseheads feel in having Paul Ryan on the ticket.

Thursday/Fri  1250A  (950P Pacific Time): Exeunt. Simon Constable, WSJ/Dow Jones, in re:  retail investors move away from the market.