Wednesday 24 October 2012

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Photo, above: Iranian-owned arms factory in Khartoum is bombed, apparently by Israel

Wednesday 905P Eastern Time (605P Pacific Time): Toshi Yoshihara, Naval War College, and co-author of Red Star over the Pacific: China's Rise and the Challenge to U.S. Maritime Strategy, in re: US and Japan scrap joint naval exercises next month near Senkakus/Diaoyutai – everyone saying we're afraid to annoy China.  When the US did the same thing with South Korea, North Korea saw a green light and shelled a bunch of civilians.  US cancelled exercises in the Yellow Sea because of China's complaint – so for two years the Chinese have ratcheted up aggressive military moves in the Yellow Sea and the South China Sea.  China says: Decision was made by Tokyo in honor of he Communist Party meeting in November in Beijing.  It’s as though China holds a gun to its head and says, Don’t touch me or I'll shoot.  Very unfortunate cancellation; imprudent. Sends a signal than emboldens Beijing hard-liners: "We forced Japan and the US to back down."  That drill was to use both military and nonmilitary vessels. This is about the strategic an commercial use fo the South China Sea – it has geo-economic consequences. If China wants to attacks Taiwan from the East, will have to pass through there.  We need o think of the Senkakus in larger strategic terms.

"Japan and the United States have called off a joint naval exercise planned for next month in a bid to avoid irritating China and escalating their ongoing territorial dispute in the East China Sea, Japanese media reported. Citing a Japanese government source, the Tokyo-based Jiji Press said the decision to skip the drill on November 5-16 "reflects the decision of [the] prime minister's office". The two navies had intended to rehearse the recapture of a remote island not unlike one of the disputed Diaoyu Islands."

Wednesday 920P Eastern Time (620P Pacific Time): Arthur Waldron, Lauder Professor of International Relations in the Department of History at the University of Pennsylvania, in re: Nobel Prize in Literature awarded by a committee of whom only one could read Chinese language.   Seems to be a favor to the Chinese Communist Party to appease it after having awarded a peace Prize to a Chinese dissident. Occurs when the 18th Party Congress meets to choose unelected leaders (of a tyranny) totally distant from the original revolutionaries.  The one piece of good news for them this year; Swedish Academy awards party toady. We saw in 1989 that there's a huge desire for an open and democratic politics in China.

Wednesday 935P Eastern Time (635P Pacific Time):  Hotel Mars, episode n.  David Livingston, Dr Space, and Alan Boyle, MSNBC, in re: mysterious Blue Origins, and details of the known private enterprises, such as SpaceX and Orbital Sciences.  Blue Origins: started by Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon; extreme secrecy. Why so? Why not like Elon Musk, who runs Dragon capsule.    Probably to protect the stock price.   I saw a nice wire fence and a nice security guard who turned me away; and transport to Texas where Jeff has a huge ranch and testing is done.  All fits in w Jeff's lifelong dream of promoting space flight.  Orbital and suborbital escape system: powers the crew capsule away in case something goes awry.  It powers away from a capsule that goes wrong and lands with a parachute.  Jeff has a program he's funding almost entirely, with some NASA money into some of the components. Doesn’t need to bring in customers; different personalities among the billionaires.  Have just completed a high-performance hydrogen engines, plus more than 100 wind tunnel tests for safety.  H-powered propulsion module has replaced what they had in mind only a few years ago.  They’ve started to be a little more informative. These days, hard to tell which is private space and which is "old space."  Van Horne, TX, and Roswell & Las Cruces, NM.

Wednesday 950P Eastern Time (650P Pacific Time):  Henry Nau, Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University, in re: We've had a deal with China for 30 years: we'll help you get rich if your behavior is consonant with the international system. Important to focus on China's foreign policy and behavior – support for North Korea, aggression in the oceans: we need to remind them that we cannot support them unless they [behave in a  more civilized way].  We  heard almost naught from wither of the two candidates during the FP debate.  China supports Iran and was deeply involved in the Pakistani nuclear program – is a major proliferator.  Further, Russia's support for Iran and Syria. When Obama said, "You want to take our foreign policy back to the 1980s"; Romney could have won the whole debate by discussing Syria, China, similar misbehavior. Romney lost a major opportunity. A big portion of the US is fatigued with war, so Romney had to show that he's not merely a war-monger.  

Wednesday 1005P Eastern  (705P Pacific Time): Patrick Chovanec, Tsinghua University, in re:  China's Q3 numbers. Nomura says 7.8% growth this year?  the PMI (survey of purchasing mgrs) was 49.1 yesterday – seen as "the recovery is under way" – although it’s the twelfth straight month of contraction. The plane is falling less rapidly . . .   Stories on energy consumption and production, but there's still a huge gap. In a mfrg economy, for steel production to be down 2% year on year, it means something.  People looking for leading indicators and green shoots. I was looking at apparent rebound in real estate, but the figures are dropping again. Shift toward consumption?   Anne Stevenson Young at Bay Capital Research: Beijing said it was up 2.2%, but the China Iron and Steel Assn said it was down. Beijing said, Yeah, but you surveyed only the big producers; the small ones are doing well.  Anne's firm surveyed the small producers and found that Beijing had lied.   Caterpillar said it’s been a hugely disappointing year [Bloomberg reported that long ago] [Caterpillar has put a lot of its hopes in China. This is serious news.] 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2012/10/21/has-chinas-economy-bottomed-out/  On Thursday, Beijing’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced that the Chinese economy grew 7.4% in the third quarter.  That was down from 7.6% in Q2 and 8.1% in Q1.

It was the seventh-straight quarter of declining growth and a 14-quarter low.  Moreover, growth for the first time fell below Premier Wen Jiabao’s full-year target of 7.5%.

Wednesday 1020P Eastern (720P Pacific Time):  Peter Navarro, professor at University of California Irvine, & producer of Death by China, in re: China in the presidential campaign.  Death by China is an extremely important film; has taken the film on a tour to show to people who've been directly affected by the Chinese economy. These people do not want protectionism; they want a fair playing field absent currency manipulation and govt-supported mfrg.  Also, we now owe $3 trillion to China.  A young man in Ohio with a college degree who's working in WalMart spent weeks looking for an American flag to put on his great-grandfather's grave – a veteran – but couldn't find one not made in China.    Obama hasn’t been able to solve the economic problems left from the Bush adm; brought in Keynesians who spent us into massive debt.  Chinese cheating. People will vote jobs, irrespective of Party.  Can’t have prosperity without a mfrg base, and our mfrg base has gone to China.  Citizens of Toledo are enraged; mayor is selling huge blocks of waterfront property to China, is flying back and forth to China to bring in investors; selling infrastructure to China.  Half of Mansfield's great steel plant is an empty lot: it was packed up and sent to China!

Wednesday 1035P Eastern  (735P Pacific Time): Reza Kahlili, A Time to Betray, and Larry Johnson, No Quarter, in re: Iran talks; Valerie Jarrett to Doha. There's a college – r many - in China that specializes in turning out cyberspies.  Reza has published details on Washington speaking directly with the Supreme Leader of Iran. Caused trouble for Qatar and its prime minister, who had to deny that the secret mtgs occurred in Doha, after an al Arabiya report on the mtg – actually several mtgs. Qatar is part of GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council); also conflict within Iran as thise media write on it – some support the mtgs and some question who's involved. Internal factions are fighting, Ahmadinejad may issue documents.  NY Times wrote that it stands by its story on the mtg (with Valerie Jarrett).  SBU: Unclassified but sensitive, sent to White House: by 4PM local (nss.eop.gov – natl sec staff, exec ofc of the president) on 11 Sept saying that Al Ansar al Shariah ran the military attack.   Then more e-mails; finally, a 6:08 PM, Ansar al Shariah had taken credit for the killings on FaceBook.  US senior military leaders accepted this as plausible.  No suggestion anywhere that this was in response to a videotape – but Jay Carney next day insisted the attack was all because of the video. The unclassified distribution list covered a lot of agencies and groups.  The WH is in disarray, was determined to deflect suggestion that the attack was anything but local disturbance. Revolutionary Guards have been active and smuggling arms. See what State did on 20 Oct: reward for a fellow, $12million. Believed to have transferred arms to rebels in Syria?  Attack on US facility in Syria is   . . .  Ayman Zawahiri is staunchly anti-Shia; how to you reconcile the anti-Shia elements in al Qaeda?  or is this an Iranian op? Information is that Iran had some sort of hand in this. There were seven Iranian Red Crescent workers taken hostage in Libya, but freed, and were intell agts. Lack of US leadership is causing all these elements to come together. That station was hit not necessarily by al Qaeda, but cd have been by Iran who then blames it on Iran.  The president, the Secretary of State, the Natl Security Council: have not told the people of the United States what they need to know about why and how our ambassador was killed. LK: The attack served the interest of Iran, not al Qaeda. Al Qaeda is fighting to depose Syria's Assad. The US mission in Libya appears to have been involved with recruiting and training fighters to insert in Syria against Assad. Iran may have carried out a brilliant op--they destroyed the CIA mission and managed to blame aQ in the process.

Wednesday 1050P Eastern (750P Pacific Time): Joe Sternberg, Asia WSJ, in re: Shale oil in China: can'tdevelop successfully because there's no essential infrastructure; instead, the deadening hand of government snags operations. Asian China trade

Wednesday 1105P  Eastern (805PPacific Time): Pity the Billionaire: The Hard-Times Swindle and the Unlikely Comeback of the Right by Thomas Frank; 1 of 2

Wednesday 1120P Eastern (820P Pacific Time): Pity the Billionaire: The Hard-Times Swindle and the Unlikely Comeback of the Right by Thomas Frank; 2 of 2

Wednesday 1135P Eastern  (835P Pacific Time): John Burns, NYT, in : the Jimmy Savile inquiry accelerates; Prime Minister's questions

Wednesday 1150P Eastern  (850P Pacific Time): John Bolton, AEI, in re: the Benghazi attack and what did the president know?

 

Wednesday/Thurs 1205A  Eastern (905 Pacific Time):  Toshi Yoshihara, Naval War College, and co-author of Red Star over the Pacific: China's Rise and the Challenge to U.S. Maritime Strategy, in re: US and Japan scrap joint naval exercises next month near Senkakus/Diaoyutai – everyone saying we're afraid to annoy China.  When the US did the same thing with South Korea, North Korea saw a green light and shelled a bunch of civilians.  US cancelled exercises in the Yellow Sea because of China's complaint – so for two years the Chinese have ratcheted up aggressive military moves in the Yellow Sea and the South China Sea.  China says: Decision was made by Tokyo in honor of he Communist Party meeting in November in Beijing.  It’s as though China holds a gun to its head and says, Don’t touch me or I'll shoot.  Very unfortunate cancellation; imprudent. Sends a signal than emboldens Beijing hard-liners: "We forced Japan and the US to back down."  That drill was to use both military and nonmilitary vessels. This is about the strategic an commercial use fo the South China Sea – it has geo-economic consequences. If China wants to attacks Taiwan from the East, will have to pass through there.  We need o think of the Senkakus in larger strategic terms.

"Japan and the United States have called off a joint naval exercise planned for next month in a bid to avoid irritating China and escalating their ongoing territorial dispute in the East China Sea, Japanese media reported. Citing a Japanese government source, the Tokyo-based Jiji Press said the decision to skip the drill on November 5-16 "reflects the decision of [the] prime minister's office". The two navies had intended to rehearse the recapture of a remote island not unlike one of the disputed Diaoyu Islands."

Wednesday/Thurs  1220A Eastern (920 Pacific Time):  Arthur Waldron, Lauder Professor of International Relations in the Department of History at the University of Pennsylvania, in re: Nobel Prize in Literature awarded by a committee of whom only one could read Chinese language.   Seems to be a favor to the Chinese Communist Party to appease it after having awarded a peace Prize to a Chinese dissident. Occurs when the 18th Party Congress meets to choose unelected leaders (of a tyranny) totally distant from the original revolutionaries.  The one piece of good news for them this year; Swedish Academy awards party toady. We saw in 1989 that there's a huge desire for an open and democratic politics in China.

Wednesday/Thurs  1235A  Eastern (935P Pacific Time):   Hotel Mars, episode n.  David Livingston, Dr Space, and Alan Boyle, MSNBC, in re: mysterious Blue Origins, and details of the known private enterprises, such as SpaceX and Orbital Sciences.  Blue Origins: started by Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon; extreme secrecy. Why so? Why not like Elon Musk, who runs Dragon capsule.    Probably to protect the stock price.   I saw a nice wire fence and a nice security guard who turned me away; and transport to Texas where Jeff has a huge ranch and testing is done.  All fits in w Jeff's lifelong dream of promoting space flight.  Orbital and suborbital escape system: powers the crew capsule away in case something goes awry.  It powers away from a capsule that goes wrong and lands with a parachute.  Jeff has a program he's funding almost entirely, with some NASA money into some of the components. Doesn’t need to bring in customers; different personalities among the billionaires.  Have just completed a high-performance hydrogen engines, plus more than 100 wind tunnel tests for safety.  H-powered propulsion module has replaced what they had in mind only a few years ago.  They’ve started to be a little more informative. These days, hard to tell which is private space and which is "old space."  Van Horne, TX, and Roswell & Las Cruces, NM.

Wednesday/Thurs  1250A  Eastern (950P Pacific Time): Exeunt. Jessica Silver Greenburg

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Music (using New York City  broadcast times)

9 hour:  Babylon AD; Tomorrow Never Dies; Skyline; Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.

10 hour:  Shaolin; Assassin's Creed; Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.

11 hour:  Ghostbusters; Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.

midnight hour:  

 

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