Punks and Iconoclasts.
The jobless recovery overwhelms all the atmospherics re the Obama administration defensiveness over the Gulf or Shahzad or the healthcare confusion. David Wessel reports (above) the staggering number of 20% unemployment for men between 25 and 54 years old. POTUS cannot talk around this obstacle. The midterms are a measure of the disdain for Washington. All incumbents are at risk if they belong to what is perceived to be the ruling class. The general election in the UK, already under way, may well demonstrate that the anti-incumbent temperament is global. Brown out. Cameron in. Clegg celebrated. The GOP is lucky to have a midterm cycle that favors punks and iconoclasts.
Immigration.
John Burns, NYT, tells me from London that the city to watch in the general election is Luton, fifty miles north of London. Filled with Poles who work on EU passes, and Pakistanis (see mosque below) who are present legally and illegally, it is a reliable Labour district that may bolt to the Tories. Why? Because Cameron promises to cap immigration from the EU. This appeals to the Pakistanis, who have been losing their jobs to the Poles. The UK has moved to a consensus that immigration destabilizes the island. This is a position very close to the Arizona state law about Mexicans and Central Americans. Puzzle if POTUS and the pols who have blasted Arizona are watching the UK results. If Cameron takes Luton North, which was plus 8.5% Labour in the last general, then the immigration card has worked. Put the immigration card together with the above statistic of 20% joblessness among young males int he US, and you have the making of a volatile election issue for the next cycles.
Illegal immigration into AZ is different than England, but both are destabilizing. In Arizona, the immigrants are Spanish speakers with no intent to assimilate except to the extent that they can collect state welfare benefits. In England, they are of a different culture, also have no intention to assimilate, but the muslim is a very strong culture which overwhelms weak, anything-goes cultures like that in England.
This will be interesting to watch, as during times of economic uncertainty, what would normally be winked at could easily become a forcing function.
MD Eastern -
interesting note about weak culture... I just read in a story posted on Drudge about 5 kids being sent home from a CA high school for wearing American Flag T-shirts and / or red white and blue bandanas on May 5. School has a heavy Mexican population and they were seen as 'offensive'.
There is something to the refrain Mike Savage has about Borders Language Culture.
What's next, no boy-girl kissing in public in US cities during Ramadan?
Can I even say that without a death threat? I will go into hiding now.
vsk
I don’t think it’s simply a matter of (a lack of) jobs either here or in Great Britain. In countries that have essentially become prisons, in which there are essentially only two classifications of people - wardens and prisoners – there is simply not much incentive to work. Where governments routinely demand upwards of 50% of every monetary unit of sweat in return for shoddy and insufficient services, it has become far more productive to just lie low and wait for the economic climate to improve. The commonly heard complaint about high unemployment, therefore, is merely shorthand for the frustration felt by employers and employees alike who find themselves trapped by ideologically-driven policies that make little sense in the real world.
Add to this the assault we are witnessing on a daily basis on tradition and values, and many consciously (or unconsciously) decide to quit the system voluntarily. We are essentially on strike. Any time kids are sent home from school for the crime of wearing tee-shirts displaying the flag; any time terrorists are given milk and cookies while being read their Miranda rights; any time Al Sharpton opens his mouth; any time a crèche is ordered dismantled at ‘holiday’ time; any time lawmakers vote themselves a pay raise in the dead of a Friday night, we are reminded that this is no longer a country we can wholeheartedly support.
Unemployment, much more than governments’ failed effort to artificially ‘stimulate’, represents a great foot-dragging by the American and British people. Unless and until this is recognized for what it actually is, there will be no improvement in the numbers. We will continue to sit on our hands.
http://peterkoelliker.blogspot.com/
"David Wessel reports (above) the staggering number of 20% unemployment for men between 25 and 54 years old."
Well, it looks like the Dems have finally managed to achieve one of the Progressive's century-old ambitions: to transform America into Europe. Just in time for the welfar state to be exposed as a Ponzi scheme and a fraud. One of History's rich ironies? I'm watching Greece for clues to the future. What are the odds that the Germans postpone the vote on the float until after their election? Profiles in courage all around . . .
Markets in Freefall today for 5 minutes. Supposed a fat finger trade at Citi. Panic Selling on the trading floors. Major Dow components dropped 25% in a matter of minutes. Dow dropped 991 points!
Not a lot of "support" for the economy. I'm STUNNED that one single trade could bring down the markets! The Quants and their models are killing us!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1487022682&play=1
Scary unemployment numbers, THERE IS NO FAITH IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY.
Kramer is blaming the machines, but the panic is out there and demands blood.
-Wisdom
". . . the city to watch in the general election is Luton . . . "
For those of us who turn eagerly to Michael Barone's invaluable Almanac when similar bellwether American districts come up in discussions . . .
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luton,_England
Also, Bagehot, Economist's commentator on England, is blogging about the election real time on their site. http://www.economist.com/blogs/bagehot?source=features_box_main
When he logged on at 22:11 GMT, the LibDems were doing worse than expected with higher than expected turn-out nation-wide. As of Noon GMT, 4 million had voted.
From Bagehot:
23:06: Lots of reports coming in that several polling stations were closed with people still waiting to cast their ballots. The downside of a high turnout. If it's a widespread problem, it could turn into a big issue as the night wears on.
****************************************************************************
Whatever happened to "everyone in line when the polls close will get a chance to vote"? We've had that for decades. Seems inconceivable that the Motherland wouldn't have instituted the same practice!
Can somebody give me the Reader's Digest about what would happen to Cameron if the Tories get a plurality but not a majority? Then Brown can stay in office as long as he wants? Without any term limit? What happens to Cameron in the mean time? Does he sit around picking the ..... er, sit around listening to right-wing talk shows waiting for Brown to decide?
First Minister of Northern Ireland just lost his seat to Alliance Party. Conservative Majorities/Pluralities in UK, Eire, NZ, Australia and Canada. USA is the only Liberal nation in the Anglosphere.
Brown may be able to form a government, Brit papers are calling a "Hung Parliament"
Districts swinging over 10 percent towards Conservatives
Lou,
Look here: http://www.ft.com/indepth/general-election-2010
The Cliff Notes version is one of the top two finishers will be asked to form a government and rely on deals with the other parties to make up a majority ruling coalition. Nasty cock-up for trying to figure out what the electorate is telling the government it wants done. In all likelihood, the party asked will be the Tories. There's some speculation that Brown might put in a bid to do it and lash up with the Liberal Democrats, some of whose policies are more Labour than Labour, but they appear to have lost seats, so Clegg and the Lib-Dems have lost their "comer" cachet. Don't know who the natural allies of the Tories would be out of Britain's alphabet soup of rump crazies and chronically aggrieved.
Thanks. My confusion revolved around the fact that the prime minister is not publicly elected. It's more analogous to the Speaker of the House and Senate Majority Leader roles in the U.S., if I understand it now.
The "winner-take-all" approach seems stupid on the face of it. But maybe not, I need to give it some more thought.
The Queen asks the winner to form a Government, but no clear winner. When the Lib-Dems announce their intentions, HM the Queen will invite Brown or Cameron to the Palace to form a Government. I assume Clegg will be invited to the Palace as well. The French call it Co=habitation, the Brits are calling it a "hung=parliament"
Considering the conservative anti-spending opinion across the World, the Lib-Dems may be more effective partnering with the Tories.
BREAKING- Greece gets aid package, done deal.
"The "winner-take-all" approach seems stupid on the face of it. But maybe not, I need to give it some more thought"
Apparently it seems less acceptible to the Brits now too. Clegg was calling for electoral reform as part of his platform (no mystery there since the Lib-Dems have been shut out for something like the entire 20th Century). Now the electorate is hopping mad over so many people being denied the opportunity to vote because they didn't have the "everybody in line at closing will get to vote" rule. No doubt they will demand investigations and a commission will be established to study ways to make the voting process more accessible. Let's just hope they don't come up with Motor Voter.