Blackhawk Down In Deep Water.
-thumb-183x146.jpg)
Suddenly the Obama administration has a foreign policy problem that does not permit simple blame-shifting to the previous presidency, and the problem has the face of the worthy Maersk Alabama's Captain Richard Phillips. Joe Biden knows this is alarming and ignored his smug aide to comment that DNI Blair and his team are working "around the clock" on the hostage scenario. The Maersk Alabama was reported in bound to Mombassa with food aid for East Africa when it was boarded and captured several hundred kilometers at sea. Early reports are that Phillips exchanged himself for his crew, and that the attackers then set off in a fully-provisioned, enclosed lifeboat that can sustain them for at least a week as they negotiate with the U.S. Navy's Bainbridge. The Somali pirates are not random scavengers. They may very well have been tipped or guided to their target by Mombassa based sources. The whole of the Somali coast is rich with two clans who practice piracy as a business plan. This is measured and sober hostage taking for ransom. Robert Wright, FT, told Simon Constable and I weeks ago that the dip in piracy incidents off Somalia was weather related not because the surface navies of the US, Italy, Germany, Britain, India, Russia, France have intimidated the pirates. This is
now chiefly an American tactical puzzle. Why American? The old Colin Powell rule, you break it, you own it. The 1992-93 intervention by both the George H.W. Bush and the Bill Clinton administrations, with the UN standing by like a pet, turned into the horror moment of Blackhawk Down and then America bugging out as if Mogadishu was Saigon. In a gesture of guilt, America welcomed tens of thousands of Somalis as war refugees and distributed them in peculiar places, such as frigid Minnesota and Maine. The George Bush administration ignored Somalia as if it was an unemptied ashtray for the morning clean-up. The pirates are a piece of the nightmare. The whole of the Sahel, the shore of the Sahara, is in turmoil with jihad, drought, famine, gun-running and anarchy.
Hostages.
The warships cannot solve the problem, because the answers are on land. The FT's Robert Wright told us that there are two clans that dominate piracy, the Hawiye and the Darod, and they work in parallel. The Hawiye command the Haradere area. The Darod command the Puntland Coast around Eyl. Only ground-based suppression will work, but that means Marines, air support, naval support, United Nations cooperation, civic and humanitarian structure -- the comprehensive approach that the US has not wanted to risk since 1993. Now the hostage scenario may force the Obama adminstration's hand. CENTCOM's General Petraeus says that more ships are in-bound for the region, though this is an impotent and tardy gesture. The FBI hostage negotiators are headed to the USS Belknap to open conversation with the pirates. The demands are simple: food, fuel, cash and free passage back to our dens. The Obama administration must now struggle with the policy that the US does not ransom hostages. No appeasement, no concessions, no peace. Surrender or die. There is more than one hostage on that bobbing Maresk line lifeboat. The US, the pirates, the POTUS and VPOTUS could become hostages, too. It is not idle that the President would not answer a reporter's question today about the pirates. This is dangerous policy. Blackhawk Down in deep water is make-believe, so far. The pirates operate in packs; they may have land-based command and control; they may welcome jihadists into their mix; they know that one in two captured pirates have been set loose. Easy to imagine there are tens of pirate boats pushing off from the coast and preparing to grab anything American. Fat pickings, big pay-day possible, and the new bosses won't shoot, will they?
Excellent post, John. This Captain Phillips is giving us a much-needed reminder of how a true leader acts to save those entrusted to him. If he pulls through this he should be given the Congressional Medal of Honor. And then, we have to just get some blood revenge. Just some mindless, senseless, crazy revenge. Burn some pirates alive in their boats. I am serious. Nobody messes with a crazy man. The U.S. has been too cautious, too sane, too cowardly, too predictable, too "coyote blue". It's been too long since we've acted like a rogue state. We have to lose our tempers just once in a big way, and as soon as we have secured Captain Phillips' safe release, I say that NOW IS THE TIME. I love your comparison of Mogadishu to Saigon. You know those bumper stickers with the American flag that say "These Colors Don't Run"? Well, under Obama, I think we may have to change them to "These Colors Won't Fight".
Ditto! I don't get part of this piracy thing: wouldn't it be cheaper for all these ships to hire a few Blackwater types and rocket launchers to stay on board? I agree with Lou that we should be killing some of these pirates, it would send a message they might finally get. Note that France invaded Algeria in 1839 because of the Barbary pirates.
I think ships will have be armed again from yachts to merchant marine vessels. Putting those Blackwater troops would be a start. It was the Brits and the Canadians (I know blame Canada) which asked no private vessel to be armed. I think those days are ending soon it will be MadMax on the water if this keeps up.
It is unfortunate the Somalies are taking hostages; however, they believe they are standing up for theur rights after being pillaged by American and British corporate pirates after all these years.
It'll be interesting to see what "Overseas Contingency Operation" actually means. Of course, Obama could just ignore the whole thing and still be assured of majority drone support. The press would have to go along with it for this strategy to work. I can't tell from here (India) how the MSM is handling it. The best thing for them would be to ignore it; sweep it under the rug and forget about it; then pass a law requiring all American ships to go some other way. This would be the best way forward for Barack "we will never be at war with Islam" Obama. The pirates are Muslim, aren't they? This would likely mean that we can't fight them under any circumstance. Maybe Obama could convince us that they're Swiss and go in there guns blazing. Any country where 90+% of the people do not know the difference between Sweden and Switzerland is liable to believe anything.
This situation is one of several where I just shake my head and give up. Illegal immigration is high on the list. (yesterday the new census chief assured proudly that all illegals would be counted).
the pirate issue is the same--why wouldn't shippers put several shooters aboard. As I said here several months ago, I know people who will do this for room and board.
It won't happen, but I'm with Lou. If you come within 300 yards of a US vessel, you willl be blasted out of the water--no questions asked. This would apply to the occasional Iranian speedboat that were buzzing our ships in the Gulf last year. No need to go ashore.
Alas, as soon as we take out a few Somali pirates, the Beeb (BBC world service) and NBC will air videotape of crying Somali children and will claim these were the children of the "Sea Mariners" or "hard-working boat laborers"
I also expect the Mainstream media to forbid the use of "Pirates", this weird racial guilt the media has is all consuming.
Why does the Kingdom allow this to happen so close to their vital shipping lanes? Is it the usual "April Surprise" to scare the oil markets into raising oil prices?
Room and board?! I'd pay THEM for the privilege of holding that job!!
WWBD?
What Would Bond Do? STAB EM----> Scuba To Assassinate Brigands Early Morning
What Would Binyamin Do? STAB EM----> Scuba Team Assassinates Brigands Early Morning
What WIll Barack Do? STAB EM ATT??? Start Talking And Be Easy Mark All The Time???
STAB EM
I totally agree with all of the posts above, but I fear President Obama would not. Rather than act, The Messiah is dithering. There are Navy SEAL teams on the scene, but Obama has opted to rely on FBI hostage negotiators instead, apparently taking his cues from Dog Day Afternoon rather than Blackhawk Down. And so we have this edifying scene -- a dead-in-the-water rubber dinghy with four thugs aboard armed with a few AK-47s, probably a bag of khat, and maybe fifteen teeth among them, are able to hold an American citizen hostage and stare down a US Navy destroyer for days in full view of the world media! The hostage even slips off the dingy in a desperate swim for freedom, and the US Navy fails to pick him up, allowing the pirates to recapture him! Predictably, a page one article in this morning's NY Times trumpets that four thugs in a drifting dinghy have thus demonstrated "the limits of US power." Sickening!
In short, Obama has apparently decided to negotiate without preconditions -- his sole foreign policy approach -- not now with Iran but with a quartet of marooned punks. I fully realize that we must move very carefully lest we endanger the Captain's life, but I find it hard to believe that a team of our SEALS could not stealthily approach the dinghy and eliminate the four captors in nanoseconds and free our hostage by force. Not exactly an Entebbe-level operation, no? But appeasement is the order of the day in Obama's Washington and, as usual, this policy will make a current problem worse. Even now, pirate craft are reportedly sailing to the scene -- obviously not fearing American reprisals -- bringing additional hostages from several other nations to further complicate the situation and limit our options by socializing this incident into a truly international issue. Which means that Obama MUST ACT NOW and free our hostage by force before these "reinforcements" arrive. But I doubt he will. In the meantime, various folks in the MSM praise the Somali buccaneers for the efficiency of their "business model;" only capitalism is denounced by the MSM as piracy.
Saami, what has been pillaged from the Somalis?
You had good front going in this writing, then you blew it all up. Sorta like
Sam didn't say that anything had been pillaged from the Somalis. Read the post again.
Maybe you should read it again. Seeya! WWTBY
"Manners, manners," as the saying around here goes.
Let me clarify, Somalia was pillaged by the IMF, American and Birts and Europeans as they pillaged the fishing stocks off the Somali Coast. IMF has them in debt no doubt up to their eyeballs.
We all know that "nobody is perfect" and that the Somalians (among others) may have some quasi-legitimate gripes against the U.S. Having stipulated that, I don't care! It doesn't matter! That was then, this is now. And to even raise the question of what has been done to the Somalians in the past is to imply that it somehow justifies what the pirates are doing now. And it doesn't! Who cares. Don't you see, that's precisely why the U.S. has become weak, because of our perpetual guilt over one thing or another? And guilt is just ridiculous. It's time to say to the pirates, "We don't care what happened to you last week. At all. Whatever it was, however bad it was, is going to seem like an all-expense paid trip to Tahiti compared to what's going to happen to you now. If you give up Captain Phillips immediately, we'll shoot you without torturing you first. If you delay, when we finally bring you to justice, we'll pull your fingers and toes off one by one and broadcast it on youtube for the world to watch you scream for mercy, before we kill you." We can then feel guilty about such reprehensible behavior at our leisure.
Somalia may well have legitimate grievances which merit serious consideration, but this act is not behavior recognized by any reasonable person as proprtional. This is a highseas kidnapping being perpetrated not by elected or authorized leaders of the country-- this is the sort of classic shakedown which self-interested pirates, gangsters, and thieves have been doing since the dawn of man. If you think these guys are somehow fighting for the cause of their nation, or somehow trying to gain world attention to the problems needed to be redressed, I'd have to see a hell of a lot more evidence than we we're seeing here.
This sets a very bad precedent for the Administration on the world stage, I'm afraid. Serious people around the world who are not affected by Obama's cult of personality must be looking at this with great concern. Obama's USA looks like a toothless tiger. I can imagine how in some quarters, this apparent, stalling approach of appeasement would be hailed as the correct resopnse to this crisis- those in the West who never think in realpolik and who want things to be fuzzy-happy, regardless of consequence. I am not too concerned with their response. Im sure there are many "well-intentioned" people who consider themselves liberals and humanitatrians who would rather sacrifice one American than kill a dingie full of looters from a 3rd world cesspool.
However, I am seriously concerned how this plays to the eyes and ears of those who really do intend serious harm to both the US and its citizens-- in high office and in back alley hideouts-- and in a larger sense, to those who wish to do damage to western democratic ideals in general.
What an utter disappointment Obama is turning out to be. The very fact that he has not made one decisive public comment on this matter is serious, and dare I say-- damning.
So far in the few weeks he's been around, his ridiculous, dangerous, corrupt, incompetent administration has been more damaging, more bewildering, more disgusting, than I could've imagined possible. I hope for the captain's sake, this doesn't drag on for more than another day or two. And if the Sunday talk shows don't address this, it's just more evidence of their culpability.
YEH YOU GOT THAT RIGHT
US Constitution, Article I Section 8
The Congress shall have the power...
To define and punish Piracies and Felonies committed on the high Seas, and Offenses against the Law of Nations;
To declare War, grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal, and make Rules concerning Captures on Land and Water;
A letter of marque was issued by a nation to a privateer or mercenary to act on the behalf of that nation for the purpose of retaliating against another nation for some wrong, such as a border incursion or seizure.
Reprisals are acts taken by a nation, short of war, to gain redress for an action taken against that nation. For example, seizing a ship in retaliation for a seized ship.
How low has the nation fallen, when our Navy cannot overcome four pirates? When we have more confidence in the private citizens to act in the nation's best interest than we do in the elected and appointed officials?
The Progressives have been relentless these past 100 years and appear to have succeeded in laying low this great experiment. If we won't fight to keep this one going, it's time to go start a new one somewhere.
As the Jews say at Passover, Next year in Jerusalem.
Well, I made a big booboo... being the nice and courteous individual I am, I for once trusted that Saami had it right on the Somalian plight and exploitation. In blind faith I wrote "YEH YOU GOT THAT RIGHT" and, of course, IT WAS WRONG! One quick look on Wiki could have saved me this embarrassment. Why did I do it? How could I have?
You all know, I know that I know that I knew better. So, never again will I agree with Saami 'cause he really believes in making up stuff or believes made up stuff is really real.
I'm not insulting anyone, so, don't castigate me. We all learn our lessons the hard way.
I always appreciate novanglus' getting it down to the essentials. Thank you.
Spencer once again, you appologize and then turn around and insult me again. I understand if you dont agree with me, fine. However, everyone has a right to their opinion. I have not for once insulted you on your comments or critized you on your beliefs.
All I ask you to check the facts and truth out for yourself. I know im imperfect and that's fine by me. Truth speaks louder than spin.
Spencer - thank you for reading. I am inspired by the original Novanglus, John Adams, a fellow Massachusetts born American. While in elementary school, we screened the movie-musical 1776 one morning and I was entranced by this character, played by William Daniels. His willingness to stand firm against everyone on principle lifted my heart, even as they shouted him to sit down. When Jefferson and Franklin repeat to him he is obnoxious and disliked, I laughed out loud - particularly when Franklin, Sherman, and Livingston do their Three Stooges act singing about sexual combustability.
I tend to rant like Adams, so much so that I have taken to wearing cowboy boots so that when my wife kicks me under the dinner table, it doesn't leave much of a mark! My objectives are simple - to be as well informed as I can on current events and to engage in debate with anyone and everyone I can. My hope has always been one of two outcomes: (1) to convince others to see things as I do, or (2) to have others convince me that I see things incorrectly. I usually end up dismayed that most people, no matter their level of education, seem to live happily with cognitive dissonance.
Seriously Saami? I don't see it that way... where did I insult you?
Sam, if I could try to help just a bit here, I had a couple of run-ins with Spencer when I began posting here. I too thought he was insulting me. He has a sarcastic tone but I find that he is not maliciously trying to insult people, and his participation is extremely valuable to the blog; the moment I just decided to let the abrasive aspect go in one ear and out the other, it seemed like he and I stopped getting into these little frays like the one you're currently having with him. I pass it off as being like the razzing the new kids always get at school. To paraphrase John Lennon, "Don't you think the joker laughs at you?" And to paraphrase John Batchelor, "There's so much going on out there of vital importance, why waste time taking swipes at each other?"
Somalia: Dry Up The Guns, Then Send Lawyers and Money (23 Dec 08)
Send lawyers, guns and money
The sh-t has hit the fan---Warren Zevon
"Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent."---Isaac Asimov
Executive Summary
Recently, the UN granted the US authority to pursue Somali pirates both at sea and on land. This gives the Obama Administration an opportunity to come to grips both with the problem of piracy in the strategically important Red Sea/Indian Ocean and with a troubled land that has been without an identity as a nation-state for about two decades.
It also gives the Obama Administration the chance to develop approaches to the Global war on Terrorism ("GWOT")that may be both less kinetic and more effective than what has gone before.
As Warren Zevon indicated, this problem revolves around lawyers, guns and money. Specifically, a solution involves drying up the flow of arms and ammunition across the Red Sea from Yemen, pitting hostile factions against each other and providing support to the last man standing, including the development of a functioning legal system, something that has been a main source of legitimacy for the Islamic Courts Union ("ICU") insurgents.
Background
Currently, Somalia, like Caesar's Gaul, is divided in there parts, which are:
1) Somaliland (former British Somaliland), a functional successor state that would be recognized, except for the African Union's ("AU") reticence about changes to national borders;
2) Puntland, a less functional successor state, home to many of the Somali pirates; and
3) Southern Somalia (largely the former Italian Somaliland), a true failed state, an absurdest netherworld where factions fight post-modern wars while children die of measles, that includes areas such as Kismayo, the Juba Valley and the former capital, Mogadishu.
The vast majority of the population of these regions are ethnic Somalis of the Muslim faith. The Somali are a Clan-based society, that has traditionally had a pastoral economy and culture.
That the population is homogeneous ethnically and religiously does not mean that it is not divided in other ways. Clans, for example, were a major check on the rapid progress made in 2006 by the ICU, prior to the Ethiopian intervention. The (somewhat weak) Transitional Federal Government ("TFG") is the latest of several attempt to restore a functioning government to the failed state. The ICU (and its more radical off shoot, Al-Shabab) are Islamist groups attempting to restore order on a Salafist template. Somaliland and Puntland cautiously recognize the TFG, but keep their autonomy.
Finally, the pirates, mainly headquartered in Puntland, are probably former smugglers. (Somalia had a negligible fishing industry despite rich fisheries in the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean and Somalis tend not to eat fish. So media characterizations of the pirates as "fishermen" are unlikely.) How they factor into the conflict with the ICU and Al-Shabab is unknown. However, the money they have been able to extort has likely influenced the flow of arms out of Yemen, which some have characterized as the "Wal-mart" for small arms and ammunition in the region.
The Yojimbo/Fist Full of Dollars Strategy
Somalia is a chaotic system that is reaching disequilibrium.
The Ethiopians, who pushed back the ICU in December 2006, are having difficulty maintaining order and are talking about withdrawal in the near term. The ICU and Al-Shabab control most of the south (with the exception of parts of Mogadishu, the former capital) and are expanding into Puntland, essentially the status quo at the time that Ethiopia intervened. The Clans in Puntland, different than the southern Clans that most ICU members are drawn from, who served as an initial check on the ICU, may have lost credibility by acquiescing to an intervention by the Christian-dominated Ethiopians, the Somali's traditional enemies.
The money and notoriety of the Pirates may allow them to buy more of the weapons (and, especially, the ammunition) traditionally smuggled out of Yemen. Based on reports in the Media, it is difficult to see how this has effected the balance of power.
Since the US now has UN authority to operate at sea and on land against the Somali pirates, an effort should be made to interdict, and possibly direct, the flow of weapons into the failed state thus setting the factions against each other, avoiding the disruptive effect of large numbers of US "boots on the ground." Once the factions are weakened, the US can provide Civil Affairs ("CA"), Civil Military Operations ("CMO") and US civilian US Agency for International Development ("USAID") assistance to help restore order. Due to their success under then-LtGen Zinni in the early part of OPERATION RESTORE HOPE, the Marine Corps should be tasked to provide security, an indispensable aspect of any successful humanitarian mission.
A key source of the legitimacy of the ICU is the Sharia Courts they set up that provided civil and criminal adjudication and law enforcement. A big part of success would be to create a functional legal system from the ground up, that would not, as Al-Shabab recently did, execute a rape victim for want of chastity. Doing this at the lowest possible level, at the village and neighborhood level, is the key element of a successful outcome.
Conclusion
Early in the 19th Century, the US asserted its sovereignty through operations against the Tripolitanian Pirates. This operation involved effective cooperation between the Department of State, the Navy, the Marine Corps and (rather dodgy) foreign allies. The success of this operation, which gave Marine Officers their traditional Mameluke swords, provides a paradigm for this operation to restore sovereignty to another state and for a transition to a US grand strategy that is less kinetic and more oriented towards inter-agency cooperation and the restoration of order through a variety of approaches along the spectrum of conflict.
(Oddly, there appears to be a Marine Expeditionary Unit ["MEU"] afloat based on reports in the Media. More may be at work here than meets the eye.)
Thanks John M. for this, especially for the reference to the late, great 'Werewolf of London' himself, Warren Zevon, and his brilliant "Lawyers, Guns and Money".
A virtual tome could be written about the history of every trouble spot in the world including America. I don't see history as being relevant anymore. Any trouble - contrived or otherwise - exists in the here and now. It does little to soothe those with guns held to their heads to concoct reasons for the hatred which so liberally abounds. The reasons are more likely to reside within drug-induced illusions of power couched in base brutality. Then there is greed from which even civilized Wall Street is not immune.
There remains a certain amount of real cash currency in keeping the kettles boiling. Look at Sri Lanka for example, a lovely paradise in which the Palestinian-trained Tamil Tigers have been mounting an aimless insurgency for decades now. The government finally vowed to put an end to it. Within clear sight of victory, we see thousands marching in the streets of London in support of the Tigers. Under pressure, the Sri Lankan government has agreed to a cease-fire as a gesture of good will during the Tamil New Year period. This will give the rebels, who have no use for tradition or niceties of any sort, time to regroup and re-arm, dragging the conflict into further gridlocked death. (Where have we seen this before?)
Make no mistake; it all originates in the West. All of it. It is the Western power brokers who perpetuate discord around the world. The Palestinians, the pirates, the Tigers are the mere puppets on the strings of Western elites who see themselves as gods. In that much I agree with Sam. He has been able to identify the linkage between corrupt Western leaders and the misery that continues to exist in the third and fourth worlds. Understanding this, will help us understand that our (the American people's) fight should not be directed at those who are painted in red or green ‘enemy’ colors, but at our own leadership which has long since separated from the landmass and is drifting - like California - into the cesspool of its own water world damnation.