Where is the KSA in this scenerio. They still have the most assets and would like to see Tehran defeated so that they do not have a Shia uprising in their neck of the woods. Also, if Haniyah was the prize initially why did Israel wait until now. They could have decapitated the leaders in the opening of Cast Lead. They want to humiliate Iran by showing that they could not defend Hamas. Iran's responses have been putrid although you may call it a calling card.

If the shooting match did start Iran would lose big time. It may have been noble of Bush to have created a democracy in Iraq but Hitler was elected in a democratic Germany and Chavez won an election thanks to Carter in Venezuela. The mistake in Iraq was not extending the war to Iran either overtly or covertly once we understood the dynamics in Iraq. Unfortunately the permanent bureaucrats at State and CIA who were opposed to Bush would rather sink the presidency then achieve victory and freedom from the axis of evil. Or maybe they were like Obama to Rick Warren where we can not distinguish good from evil which is the same trope as morasl relativism and proportionality. Even theough they do not know what the Bush doctrine is the Powell doctrine is simple to understand. Unless of course you hold certain prejudices.

One dumb question, simplystupid--what is the KSA? Egyptian intelligence?

On a related note, Stratfor's George Freidman's latest missive is about the history of Palestinians starting with the Ottoman Empire. it is excellent if you can get at it.
The bottomline--Palestinians are, have been and almost certainly be "trapped"--politically, geographically, econ etc. There only hope is the dissolution of Israel which is not about to occur. Syria, Jordan, Egypt don't recognize them as a legit nationality (looking a this through the historical lens) and certainly not a potential nation state.
It would appear than only Iran wants Haniyeh to survive. My guess is most everyone is rooting for Israel to wipe out the Hamas leadership before they have to impose a cease fire. It's like they're saying "hurry up already" and take them out.

Re Bekaa and escalation:

FROM WND'S JERUSALEM BUREAU
WorldNetDaily Exclusive
Iran green lights 'escalation'
Fears Hamas will be severely damages if truce not reached

by Aaron Klein

JERUSALEM -- Palestinian organizations in Lebanon were given a green light by Iran, Syria and by the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia to escalate tension along Israel's northern border if a truce is not reached over the weekend and if Israel's continued war in Gaza begins to severely damage Hamas in the coming days, according to informed Israeli defense sources.

Earlier today, Hamas' chief Kheled Meshaal announced at an Arab conference his group will not accept Israeli conditions for a cease-fire in Gaza and would continue attacking the Jewish state until the Israeli offensive in Gaza ends. Meshal joined Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in a surprise visit to a Doha conference aimed at dealing with the Gaza crisis. But Hamas sources said the terror group will send representatives to Egypt this weekend to continue truce talks with Israel.

Israeli officials for their part have made no secret of their desire to reach a cease fire in the near future.

"I hope we are entering the end game and that our goal of sustained and durable quiet in the south (of Israel) is about to be attained," government spokesman Mark Regev said.

According to Jerusalem diplomatic sources, Israel has demanded in the truce talks a complete halt to Hamas rocket fire against Jewish communities outside Gaza; international monitors along the Egypt-Gaza border - the site of rampant Hamas weapons smuggling; and the reinstatement in key Gaza areas of security forces from the U.S.-backed Fatah party of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. Up for talks is some sort of armed international contingent to patrol Gaza.

Hamas for its part rejects any Fatah presence in Gaza and demands the opening of crossings along the Israel-Gaza border as well as the extension of any truce to the West Bank, which is said to be dominated by Fatah.

Meanwhile, according to informed Israeli defense sources, Iran, Syria and Hezbollah are concerned if a cease fire is not reached, the IDF will be allowed to continue their third phase of their offensive - a large-scale ground offensive to sweep clean Gaza's terrorist infrastructure.

The IDF has launched two portions of a planned assault on Gaza. The first stage was Israel's continuing aerial bombardment of Hamas targets, which the terror group admits dented its government infrastructure, and which Israeli sources said resulted in some damage to the group's military capabilities. The second stage began last week, with some ground troops entering Gaza, taking up peripheral positions in central and northern Gaza and mounting some small offensives within Gaza City and select northern Gaza camps.
But defense sources say to deal a decisive blow to Hamas, the IDF must embark on an extensive, large-scale ground operation that would clean out central and northern Gaza of Hamas' intact military wing.

The sources said Syria, Iran and Hezbollah have given a green light to Palestinian groups in Lebanon to attempt to escalate tensions along the northern border with rocket and mortar fire or with shootings along the Israel-Lebanese border.

Two days ago, at least three Katyusha rockets were fired from Lebanon at northern Israel, prompting the IDF to fire eight shells back at the source near the village of Kfar Hamam in southern Lebanon. The IDF immediately sent warplanes and gunships to fly reconnaissance missions into southern Lebanon in a clear warning signal to Hezbollah, which largely controls the territory. Also, according to local reports, the U.N., which maintains a 13,000-strong force in south Lebanon, sent out patrols to seek out the source of fire.

The shelling ignited immediate fears from pundits speaking to the Israeli media of the opening of a second front outside Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza. Although no group has yet taken responsibility for the rocket-fire from Lebanon, it is extremely unlikely any rockets can be launched from Lebanon without coordination with Hezbollah.
Defense officials in Tel Aviv earlier this week told WND that Israel estimates the rockets were fired by Palestinian groups on behalf of Hezbollah.

But the defense officials said Israel doesn't believe either Hezbollah or its Syrian patron are looking to engage in any direct conflict with the IDF. They said they estimate Hezbollah, backed by Iran, is trying to prompt Israel into fortifying its northern border with Lebanon in a bid to draw some Israeli forces out of fighting the Iranian-backed Hamas terrorist group in Gaza.

Currently, a large contingent of the Golani Brigades, the elite force charged with protecting northern Israel, is fighting inside Gaza or stationed along the Israel-Gaza border.

Last Thursday, two Israelis were lightly wounded in a rocket attack from Lebanon. Later, small arms fire was reported along Israel's border with Syria. Defense officials said in both cases Israel estimated Syria and Hezbollah were looking to draw Israeli troops from Gaza back to the north but that Israel's foes in the north were not interested in engaging the IDF.

Two weeks ago, WND was the first to report (link: http://www.worldnetdaily.com/index.php?pageId=85055), Hezbollah may allow Palestinian groups in south Lebanon to launch rockets into Israel. An Egyptian intelligence official told WND at the time the probability is low Hezbollah would directly engage Israel. But the official said Hezbollah is considering allowing Palestinian groups in south Lebanon to launch Katyusha rockets into Israel in hopes of complicating the IDF focus on Gaza.

There is a deeper problem with the EU and the U.S. - and even with Israel itself. It's a conceptual problem involving the simple notion of winning/losing. It began in the 60's when the dope-head highbrows started eliminating words from the lexicon - words like "evil". Apparently Bush hadn't gotten the message and got raked over the coals for his "axis of evil" comments. They called him a stupid shoot-from-the-hi(ck)p cowboy. The problem is that they're actually the stupid ones. By eliminating (the word) "evil", a whole lot of other stuff loses meaning as well - like “winning” and “losing”. That's how “enemy” now comes to translate into "freedom fighter" and "malice aforethought" becomes a (a simple) "mistake". It allows us to see the world ‘through a glass darkly’ and makes of it whatever we wish it to be.

Our primary fear appears to be that of conflict. As such, we create a world in which there are no wars (except on TV). And if war should dare happen to break out, we view it as an aberration. How can there be war when we’ve taken all their black hats away? - we reason. We arrogantly blame ourselves for its cause. We laboriously build and enforce Byzantine constructs of logic to deny what we have deemed as ‘unacceptable’ in this world of our own making. The answer comes out always the same: ‘They’re fighting because of us.’

So, it’s we who have strayed; it’s we who can fix it; it’s we who have to wear hair shirts to excise the evil (which resides within ourselves). It makes for good armchair discussion: the purging of guilt in the absence of a proper confessional.

The enemy doesn’t play that game, however. They just sit back and laugh as we contort our selves into unnatural shapes. They still see the world in terms of black and white hats. And they are right! They’re out there among the suffering and the bleeding; hiding in the tunnels they have dug with their own hands; hiding from the West’s audacity to proclaim itself God and its diseased obsession to act like one - bloodless.

They want nothing to do with such illusions, painfully crafted inside the laboratories of ivy covered buildings. They recognize it as the cancer, presaging the fall. They would rather die than suffer the humiliation of a slow decent into idiocy. As proof, they need only point to the still hemorrhaging world economy (an elaborate construct of the West) from its self-inflicted wound, which still has not been treated and, from every indication, will be allowed to bleed dry.