The Obama Administration and the EU Pressure Jerusalem. 
The contest now is in Cairo (not in Gaza) where the Quartet (US, UN, EU, Russia) led by Quartet Envoy Tony Blair are trying to get a ceasefire in place before the U.S. inauguration
festivites begin over the weekend. Jerusalem wants guarantees that the Sinai to Gaza ratline of weapons and cash will be cut and kept cut. Hamas will offer any deal but live up to none. Hosni Mubarak of Cairo (right with UN General-Secretary Ban Ki-Moon in Cairo) sent his son and heir Jamaal to negotiate with Hamas PM Ismail Haniyeh in Sinai/Gaza. Cairo wants what Hamas wants as long as it gets to a deal for a ceasefire. And why the rush? Because Hamas and Cairo believe that if they can get a ceasefire, they can then extend into the Obama administration tenure safely. They believe that Obama will offer a deal to Hamas and Cairo and to the Hamas puppeteer Tehran that will satisfy all parties except Jerusalem.
The Deal.
Barack Obama wants out of Iraq and out of the Gulf, asap, but he cannot get out unless he finds an accommodation with Tehran. The accommodation must be to accept that Tehran is a nuclear weapon power with ballistic missiles to project that power. Joe Biden has already delivered the message to Jerusalem that it must accept Tehran as a nuke power. What Obama gets for the ceasefire in Gaza is a boost as a peacemaker. What Tehran gets is Obama acting agreeably and controlling Jerusalem. Cairo is happy, Hamas is happy, Syria is happy, Lebanon is happy. Jerusalem is not happy but gets lots of TLC from Obama and Biden. And this will all last until Hamas rearms and rockets again. Now the new twist. The Osama Bin Laden message released today, cut in the last nineteen days, is a two-pronged taunt. It taunts Bush as a failure for never having found Bin Laden nor shut down Al Qaeda; and it taunts and threatens President-Elect Obama that either he is a good Muslim and will acknowledge and accept the Jihad for the next generations, or he is a bad Muslim, and apostate, and he will suffer as did the Bush administration.
Watching Cairo.
The ceasefire is the expectation. French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner (right) in Paris this last cycle predicted that it was possible in the next days. Quartet envoy Tony Blair this last cycle told CNN that a ceasefire was possible. Mubarak wants it to happen now. Hamas's Haniyeh will go along.
What About Lebanon?
The rockets from South Lebanon today were a warning from Tehran of an escalation if it does nto get the ceasefire it wants in Gaza. The Beirut legend was that the rockets were fired by a mysterious Palestinian group that doesn't much exist except as a surrogate for Hizballah. The rockets were fired at the israeli settlement of Kiryat Shimona. Several fell short. Much attention by Unifil and the photographers to the spent rockets (below). Why? This was a marker. The IDF counter battery fired eight shells into Lebanon (where?) and there were flyovers and a patrol. All pro forma. Jerusalem ignored the provocation -- as it did not in the summer '06. Also, the IDF knows that Hizballah (following Tehran's order) hopes to oblige the IDF to redeploy to the north. The Golani Brigade is committed to Gaza. There are no plans at this time to shift forces. Again, the escalation is in slow motion just because Tehran wants the ceasefire quickly. Hamas will claim victory. Hamas will thank Tehran.
Will Jerusalem accept open borders and open ports in the Strip?
Don't know about this one at all.
Don't know about Obama going that far with Iran. I would believe that the daily briefings and what has been revealed thus far have more than likely persuaded him that cautious stealth and a steady resolve serves US interests best. No change on this.
Predators fly and boots on the ground for the foreseeable future.
Will Israel act alone to prevent an Iranian weapon?
What's the catalyst? A test fire on the plains?
The wild card is Israel. They say they are close to finishing off Hamas in Gaza. If they fail to do so and the rockets continue, Kadima loses to Likud. Keilling later == killing more. Diplomacy and war run in parallel here. The pace should not slacken while talks are going on. Are we at the two minute warning with a tie score and the uncertainty of overtime? Remember, in overtime the rules dictate sudden death. It is better to win in regulation, especially when you have the stronger offense and defense. You never want to give the weaker team an opening to score points with their special teams in a sudden death situation.
I suspect that Spencer is correct in saying that the daily briefings should sober Obama's positions away from what he said to get elected and toward what he owes the country as President. That is, if he is truly a practical man and not the ideologue that his adversaries have painted him as. We will know soon enough.
this is off-topic but very cool--seems the new president of the EU has insulted most of the EU.
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090114_eu_artistic_misstep_reveals_underlying_tensions
I'm not sure if this link is gated or not but the snippit will tell the story.
nugget:
".....the Czech choice of artwork proved far more controversial, however. Prague selected “Europe Without Borders” as its motto in a bid to push for overcoming nationalism and separate states’ agendas within the European Union. The art installation was to be part of this theme of overcoming national stereotypes to better form a cohesive group. To this end, the 8-ton mosaic portrays Bulgaria as a Turkish toilet, Romania as a vampire theme park, France as an “on strike” sign, Poland as four Roman Catholic priests raising a gay pride flag Iwo Jima-style, Germany as a motorway network that resemble a swastika and so forth.
Formal complaints are already cropping up in Brussels, with countries like Bulgaria having summoned the Czech ambassador....."
Obama is looking for a Nobel Peace Prize, will Iran help him get it?
Euro-Intelligentsia will undoubtedly nominate him many times over, I predict it will happen the year before the 2012 election cycle. MSM will have multiples.
Things can also go terribly, horribly wrong. Iran holds all the cards right now.
Reports of the poor health of OBL may be a blessing for BHO.
Being a lap dog, I have alot of time to lie and daydream while moving in and out of sleep. My Master's stroke and touch makes me feel so safe and secure and I have never been treated badly nor have I ever been in fear of her. She makes sure I have fresh water that I love to lap up and splash all over the floor and provides me with some of the most wondermous treats and eats (Mmmm... I love my Gravy Train!)
Last night, while we were relaxing and she was gently holding me close, she fell asleep in her chair. From the box that light beams shoot out from, I saw the other world where it wouldn't be safe for any dog to be. There was smoke and fire and screaming and monstrous machines and sirens that hurt my ears and loud noises that would drive any dog to be a mad dog. Then I saw one. One like me, but, different with a look that told me that he had had enough and just couldn't stay there anymore and was on the move to somewhere, anywhere, but there. Just like him, I know I would have to leave that place, too.
As the world in the box was exploding, I wondered 'why?' Why does that world in the box not have good masters to care for us? It seemed to me that the only hope for any living thing there was to just get away and search for peace somewhere else. I hope my good brother makes it out okay.
I love my Master... she is so warm.
John – Let me get this straight: What you’re suggesting, then, with regard the current hostilities in the Middle East, is that this is not the feature (film), but only the preview. Let me first backtrack: I don’t believe for a moment (as I previously wrote tongue in cheek) that Iran may be more concerned about Obama than it was about Bush.
It seems increasingly evident that Livni’s Kadima party wanted to flex its muscle to be seen as strong in foreign policy in advance of Israel’s upcoming elections. Hamas provided her with an excuse to flex that muscle. As a proxy for Iran, Hamas was directed to soften up the enemy (Israel) and endure any consequences (to itself) that might ensue. Both have now achieved what they had set out to do. My best guess is that Hamas will now stop firing rockets into Israel and Israel will give concessions (in exchange for a ceasefire), chief of which is opening the ports and borders to allow Hamas to rearm for the main event.
The fact that Hezbollah has not significantly engaged Israel from the north means that Tehran is not yet ready. It may also be that Tehran is not quite as suicidal as everyone assumes it to be. It may believe that it can get the job done without using its nukes - just by its proxy armies that surround Israel. It is betting on Kadima (strong on appeasement; weak on defense) being re-elected. It already knows that the Obama administration will not step in to help (Israel). Anti-Israeli sentiment in the area (and in Europe), having been ginned-up to a crescendo by this latest round of fighting, should be sufficient to fuel its minion fighter’s spirits during their final assault on the Jewish state after Tehran has sounded the signal to attack.
Biden has stated quite convincingly that something drastic will happen to test the Obama administration early on. He has warned that the U.S. response might not be what the American people might expect. He urged the American people to understand that America’s stance will signal a new approach (to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, perhaps). Perhaps, Americans watching Israelis getting massacred while we sit on our hands will be representative of this new approach. …and, in the short run, (elusive) peace (or, the absence of war) will have been achieved – but at what cost!?
looks like trouble in paradise. Hamas is imploding, well actually exploding. Where is that escalation at?
Love your parable, Spencer, but who is the lapdog? The American voter, perhaps? Please, Kind Obama, make all the bad things that are happening in the world inside the box go away--we don't want to know how you do it. Just give us lots of Gravy Train and let us get back to our American Idol!
Pleasant colloquy; repeat for clarity. Every creature on two legs in Bekaa is moving with permission from Hizballah. Every bullet, every rocket, every truck or taxi or cart, in Hizballah. AlQaeda the franchiser hires the Dugmash clan in GAza to do piece work. Not recently. Hizb works for Tehran. Hamas works for Tehran. Nothing goes in or out of Bekaa without Tehran approval. The rockets fired last week and this week were postmarked Tehran. The rocket launchers were left out for the UNIFIL snapshots and the AFP media coverage. Like leaving a .45 bullet on a keyboard at the office. Repeat. Nothing and no one of any significance or with any arms or knowledge of arms moves in Bekaa without Hizb approval and direction. It's a business. You pay, we play.
This is fun: "Villagers with guns...":
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123200780663885189.html
Sgt. Almog, a 20-year-old machine gunner, tried sharing his experience with journalists in Al Atatra Thursday.
"We kept hearing Hamas was a strong terror organization, but it was much easier than we thought it would be," he said. But Hamas' fighters, he said, "are just villagers with guns. They don't even aim when they shoot."
More soon. The Siam kill was when the dummy left the bunker underneath the hospital emergency room. I will explain
This would be funny if the Europeans didn't think these empty gestures were the reason for their existence now, in what used to be called the end of history. The silliness of these people beggars the imagination. It befits the wildest satires of the 18th Century. No one is going to stand up for such a collection of fops and nitwits.
It befits the wildest satires of the 18th Century. No one is going to stand up for such a collection of fops and nitwits
History repeats:
The League of Nations. The United Nations.
A storm is gathering.
Beautiful setting in Doha for IJ, HAMAS, and PFLOP.
They must be really taken aback by all the love they're getting from their brethren as they play the blame and pity game.It must be heartwarming to see all the anxious clamor to heed their calls for relief and come to their rescue.
I wish some of these "leaders" would go out on the street and "defend" their people like they say they are doing. That might give them some degree of credibility... but, then again, the people might start defending themselves against their true enemy.
But, there's no chance of them coming out of hiding, is there? I think they would not show their faces to the people. They just kissy poo with each other, behind closed doors.
So, how about some new voices out of the Gaza. Someone emerging from the chaos Hamas has brought to them and stand up for the disillusioned and desperate. A Gazan United Front Against Terror (GUFAT) where the "villagers with guns" take it upon themselves to disjoint and despatch the cynical criminal bosses.
The Gazans could use some real help, no doubt. This would be a grand opportunity for a new and clear voice to bring exactly that.
A Hero!! Your Destiny Awaits You!!! Choose your name!! Claim it!!!