300 million? Massive infrastructure will be needed to wash, shelter, and transport those millions.
More dams will be needed for hydro and water.

Nuke Shanghai? Beijing is far more strategic. 9/11 made PRC wonder what their weaknesses are. Or Beijing is afraid Shanghai and Hong Kong may get uppity.

GWB played the India Card, like RMN played the China card. After Mumbai, India knows their future is with America. Will the US sell an old carrier group to India? GWB signed a Nuk-uh-lar pact with India, we can now share Nuk-ah-lar technology with India, especially in the powering of Subs and Carriers. Like the Missile silos of New Mexico, China is building a internal military infrastructure away from the coast, submarines and Carrier Groups.

In China's eyes, Russia is part of Europe, and India is part of the Anglosphere. China sees Japan as America's best ally outside the Anglosphere.

India, Australia, Britain and the USA (the Anglosphere) still control vital waterways: the Atlantic, the Pacific, and Indian Oceans, the Straights of Malacca, Hormuz, and Gibraltar, The Panama and Suez Canals, the Mediterranean and Caribbean Seas. What strategic waterways does China control?

Without shipping, PRC has NO economy, all exports stop. No raw materials to make goods for Macy's and Wal-Mart. Food shortages. Why nuke Shanghai when you can mine their harbours in a day or two? or a few torpedoes. Shippers will not dock into a port if there is a threat. PRChina does not own enough container ships of their own.

China has a limited sphere of influence, the Sinosphere is basically Southeast Asia and African despots. China makes allies through trade, not via Military alliances.

Like the USA, China needs Oil and has massive coal deposits. The only two issues where either side may go to war is Taiwan or Oil.

China must look north towards Siberia with Envy, vast wide-open steppes rich in Oil, lumber, and raw materials. Could China go north and invade Russia? USA will not defend Russia, USA cannot defend Russia from China. China's Eastward expansion may actually be a northward expansion. With Han Chinese in the east, trade and travel will flow Northward. Chinese will migrate to work the oil platforms, cold be similar to the Mexican Illegals we have here in the states.

PRChina has a billion people, most have had military training and PRC has a well organized central government. Beijing has many weaknesses, the biggest being internal and the natural desire for freedom.

-Wisdom

Your analysis seems, well, sapient, although I would quarrel with your belief that a desire for freedom is natural to the human condition. Nothing seems further from the truth to me.

Re the bit in Mr. Batchelor's post about the Chinese military's belief that "more US soldiers have died in East Asia than in any other theater": Odd that they have never heard of the War Between the States. Is their knowledge of American history really as deficient as Norman Podhoretz's? I thought that they were supposed to be smarter than that.

Let's hope that they are. I find it hard to imagine that the bland, well-fed technocrats who run the Middle Kingdom will pay any more attention to their military hotheads than did Kennedy to General LeMay's apocalyptic madness during the Cuban Missile Crisis. The stupid and impetuous don't claw their way to the top of the PRC, at least not since their happy realization that the capitalist cat catches more mice than does the socialist cat.

Wishful thinking on my part? Quite possibly. Who knows what chaos the coming global depression will cause?

In any event, Americans will need to be level-headed. What do I mean by level-headed? Well, avoiding nuclear war with China or anybody else seems to me a pretty good start, even if it makes the laptop bombardiers at NRO or the Weekly Standard reach for the Maalox.

Unfortunately, the feminizing nature of mass democracy means that it is not conducive to prudence and reflection, which is why we so often elect shrill, warlike "American Sissies"--to borrow Gore Vidal's dead-on description of Teddy Roosevelt--to rule us.

One more thing. If what Mr. Batchelor's sources tell him is true, then the relocation of three hundred million Chinese eastward will be an event of such magnitude that even our own CIA will have trouble missing it.

RE: China.

Are they nuts? Why would we bomb the people who buy our debt and who are Wal-Mart's major supplier?

JB has predicted for some 3 or so years that the Chinese were up to no good with all those 18-40 yr. old unmarried males. For the first time I heard Dennis Gartner make the same claim, i.e., that the Chinese must have some military uses for those men. Maybe so, but what's the pretext? We're more integrated with the Chinese now than ever before, and as long as they keep loaning us money IAW the lifestyle to which we have become accustomed, they have much much more control over us thru that than they ever would militarily.

I recall, from my schooling during 2001-2005(?) at the Batchelor College of Geopolitical Knowledge--"Batchelor's" Degree) the PRC military is largely independent of the party with its own quasi-governmental apparatus. They seems akin to Pak's military or Turkey's--always in the shadows tacitly approving (or not) of what the civilian government is doing. That arrangement suggests they could easily fall into their own narrow, paranoid view of the world with US as enemy in spite of deep economic entanglements.

300 million? That is the sum total of the population of the United States! John, all of the BS and speculation you spew out is just pure hogwash.

"Therefore the PRC will shift 300 million Han Chinese to the east, to the Tibet highland and to East Turkistan."

For one thing, water is so scarce in that region. Vegetation growth periods in that region are almost as short as those of cent. Canada. The Chi-Coms would have to build an aqueduct of the likes 100 times that of the California Aqueduct System just to support the basic needs of 1/4 of the future inhabitants. Secondly, they would need to build another aqueduct system of the same proportions to support growing plants and animals to support the food requirements of them all.

There are no major under ground aquifers, let alone rivers, in that region to support that many people for any long duration let alone a decade.

Again, this is BS and your “major signals source” is feeding you the same BS your trying to dish out.

The Central Government hasn't cared in the past whether or not there was basic provision when practicing the forced the migration of millions of people.

The difference is now they get to blame the US for their actions since most the rest of the world does, too.

"John Batchelor | January 19, 2009 3:39 PM | Reply
More: Report from Hong Kong last night from Tibet via exiles. The new regime in Tibet is now moving 500k Tibetans internally away from the capitol. Not confirmed. There is no news out of Tibet despite Xinhua going international. Heretofore, I heard from Uyghur sources (expats) thats the few dissidents left inside the vastness of the country have now been contained. Xinjiang now filling with Han migrants via the rails. The thinking of the PRC is that what made the Soviets a credible threat to the US was that they built an industrial center east of the Urals that could not be destroyed with one nuke attack and could generate counter strike. PRC (People's Liberation Army, PLA) aims for similar threat. Energy source to be nuclear power and access to oil and gas pipelines from Caspian Sea basin. PRC (PLA) regards US as hostile and unacceptable. My conversation with Hong Kong was surprising. No disagreement that the PLA and the mandarins at Bejing regard the nuke attack on Shanghai as far-fetched or speculation. Planning in train."

Prove it! post up a link or this is all blowhard BS. News of this magnitude would be all over the MSM.

Ric said: Prove it! post up a link or this is all blowhard BS. News of this magnitude would be all over the MSM.

You must be kidding! The MSM is still in their Obama-swoon. If they heard of the Tibet action, they wouldn't report it for two reasons: 1) the media is fond of China as the last and only successful Communist nation so anything they would report would be more Olympic fluff and panda stories; 2) an activist China is not on the Obama-radar. A friendlier face, a kinder gentler America is on the Obama-radar because everyone knows that the US causes aggression in other nations, i.e., the US is the problem, not the solution. The MSM would not want to report anything that might make another nation seem threatening unless they could simultaneously report that those actions were in response to some overtly threatening behavior of the US. Of course the latter is impossible because China owns the US debt.

"You must be kidding! The MSM is still in their Obama-swoon. If they heard of the Tibet action, they wouldn't report it for two reasons: 1) the media is fond of China as the last and only successful Communist nation so anything they would report would be more Olympic fluff and panda stories; 2) an activist China is not on the Obama-radar."

No not kidding. A story of this magnatude would be all over the net. A 300 million person forced migration would set off an alarm.

This story is complete and utter BS just like "The Hizballah Is Ordered to Escalate!", that was a masterpiece of BS and speculation. The "ceasefire" article amoung others was complete and utter BS AS WELL. I still hear crickets from Nasrallahs cave.

I just talked a good friend a few hours ago who has been in Tibet for the better part of 10 months, just returned a few days ago, and none of this is going on.

So again, post a link. No proof proves my point.

John - You never mentioned Israel by name. Yet, it is the source of friction in the Middle East. It is also the cornerstone of U.S. credibility. The whole world is watching. As I read it, Obama's stance with regard to Israel is still unknown. "Change" in my book could mean that we will distance ourselves from the Jewish State. If this should happen, most of our problems in the Ummah will dissipate - admittedly, setting others (like China) into motion. China too is watching. Should we give up on defending Israel, it will signal the world that America has given up and will not fight. It is therefore no longer worthy of being counted as an enemy.

Our technicism has indeed led us to “improve” nuclear weapons greatly since Fat Man and Little Boy. Scientists such as Sam Cohen and Ted Taylor have ably seen to this on our behalf. But while I can envision the latest generation of clean, low-yield nuclear weapons guided to their targets with exacting precision by American cosmocrats, what I do not comprehend is how we can blithely imagine that similar weapons--though perhaps not so clean and low-yield--would not in turn be employed against us, if not by survivors bent on revenge, then by others understandably fearful that we might destroy them next. We would fling wide a door to hell.

1. Manners are required. Required. This is a friendly suggestion. There can only be one suggestion for manners.
2. Nasrallah of Hizballah is a face on the TV and the spiritual figure in Beirut and for Hizb. He is not operational. Hizb is a direct surrogate of the IRGC and the Al Quds from Tehran. Every weapon and op in Lebanon is Tehran controlled via Hizb. Nothing moves on two legs in Bekaa that is not approved by Tehran. Meshal and Hizb are not friends. Meshal and Hizb are both surrogates for Tehran, both entirely dependent on Tehran.
3. The two crude salvoes of rockets fired close to the Israeli border, on Thursday 8 and Wed 14, were both fired by the same hired gang, paid by Tehran ops. They fired the lowest grade Hizb rockets from olive groves convenient to the media. They left evidence, including rockets, for the UNIFIL and media to photograph and stare at in order to make a front page item. The second salvo fell short of the Israeli border. It was all show in both cases. The IDF ignored the first salvo, the day after Larijani and Meshal chatted in Damascus, and with the second the IDF got the point but was not going to redeploy.
4. After the 14th, the IDF had three days to wrap up the op in Gaza because it knew it was ordered to stand down by the Cabinet.
5. Tehran made its point, the Israeli Cabinet got the point. Tehran maintains the edge for the spring. My most recent information is that the Hizb and also the Golani militia will be back in action in the Spring. Neither gang was ready for the ferocity and length of the IDF op. Haniyeh says as much in the media: he expected a 3 day op and no invasion. So did Tehran. The Larijani meeting was on the 7th in Damacus, ten days after the start of the IDF op. This delay was because Tehran was not ready to respond and even not ready to organize a military reaction. The IDF achieved tactical surprise.
6. Al Q is not a signifiant presence in Lebanon or Syria or Gaza or the West Bank. What calls itself Al Q in Lebanon are opportunistic gangs in the refugee camps north of Beirut and outside Beirut. Everyone works for cash.
7. Again, nothing on two legs, nothing with a weapon, moves in the Bekaa without Tehran/Hizb permission. There are no independent agents. UNIFIL is a wholly domesticated showpiece. The Lebanon Army is Hizb dominated.
8. Again, manners, manners. manners. The word "moron" is not acceptable. And ends the entertainment value. Bluntly, it is a word that reflects on the author.
9. Re Tibet: my information is from a trusted source. It is very fresh. It is the plan or the operation to move 500,000 Tibetans internally. Relocation. Away from the capitol. No dates or timing or names were given. Tibet is dark to news sources, including the FT and the Wsj. It is not a confirmed report. That will take time and new connections.

Middle east is a tar-pit: few get out alive. President (first blogger to say it first!) Obama will support Israel but the radical Muslim world (AKA the Arab/Muslim street) is uncontrollable and reactionary.

My advice to the new administration: No matter how hard you try, few things will change in the middle east. Don't accept promises, they will be broken.

China and other US opponents must be surprised by the events of today. Not only did a million plus souls brave the frigid weather, most if not all waved American flags. It was a truly inspiring and patriotic event. Our opponents should not question the love we have for this great country.

W-isdom

Re Shanghai: I give you what I am given when I have permission to use it. The critical reading here is that this mass migration report is said to be the opinion of the PLA and the scenario that is taught at PLA academies. It is not a prediction. It is a statement of PLA war planning policy. The PLA believes the US has lost more men in Asia than anywhere else and that the US is coming back. The PLA solution is to build an industrial base far far removed from Shanghai (the HQ of the PLA). The Tibet Highlands and Xinjiang identified. I give you what I am given. It is not my speculation. Perhaps you are unfamiliar with how this works. My sources are my sources. Some will air their thoughts. A very few will not, or will only air partials. I do not have the whole Shanghai scenario, just a piece. I did submit it to another source on the PRC, and the response was that it was credible for the PLA to plan such a development. Re the forced internal relocation in Tibet, this is one source, not confirmed, but it is a very good source, and checking continues. There is no good news out of TIbet since the crackdown of last spring. Darkness. I give you what I get when I get it if I am permitted. Both sources gave permission for this. And congratulations, most welcome the polite discourse. It is not in my power to reject source material, not from these sources. I have been on air in Washington for nine years now. The ops in Washington are not silent if you go the wrong way. It is a company town. No push back yet on Shanghai or on TIbet. Or on Bekaa. The Bekaa stuff is especially good with multiple sources.

And most everyone knows (except, apparently, for a few) that the factions aligned against Israel will never stand down. Escalation, rhetorical or otherwise, is the snake in the grass of the yard and the means by which they maintain the uneasiness of Israel who always have to be watchful.

Eventually, the restless grow tired of worrying and they mow the grass hoping to catch the snake in the blades. Unfortunately, the snake slithers away when sensing the disturbances of the machine coming near.

The thing about snakes is, being cold blooded, they occasionally like to get out into the sun and warm themselves. Instinct also dictates, they gather together in dens to await a warm sun.

When is it best to contend with the vipers? It is told that in Texas they have rattlesnake roundups where they go and find the dens, just before the snakes emerge for the spring, and coax them out with noxious fumes sprayed into the dens. This is not catch and release. This is extract their venom for the processing of anti-venom and then take whatever else is deemed useful. The skins, the meat, and the rattlers.

People say it tastes just like chicken.

Every “John Batchelor Show” regular knows that JB does not speculate; that what he presents is based on open source intel. We also know that JB knows a whole lot more than he is allowed to relate publicly. Sometimes we, if we are particularly observant, we can glean insights from what JB does not say, i.e., by reading between the lines.

I think some bloggers' problems stem from undue exposure to most other webmasters who may not have access to John's excellent sources and whose depth of analysis is restricted to self-serving diatribes and speculation. On that note, I understand that China is ‘dark’ with very little substantive information escaping from there. What, then, is the excuse for intel failure as pertains to the United States of America?

Yesterday, we all applauded enthusiastically at the prospect of continuing government bailouts – which translates into the nationalization of the private sector. We applauded ‘universal health care’ which translates into socialized medicine. We applauded single party government –which translates into communism. We applauded “the redistribution of wealth” according to skin color – which sows the seeds of resentment and revolution. We hailed the humiliation and, hence, silencing of opposing views – which translates into censorship. We applauded the liberal use of platitudes – which translates into propaganda. In effect we applauded America on the verge of becoming a communist state.

If we had read our and understood what our history books have told us about what ultimately happens in communist states, we might have realized that we have just gambled away our advantage and strength - the only functioning alternative in determining a the pecking order not based exclusively on the degree of brutality that can be demonstrated. In other words, we have applauded gang rule. Whether or not we will be the fiercest mob on the planet is yet to be determined. Admittedly, our experience in this field of endeavor is lacking as we have not enjoyed a history of it. May we learn fast and well. Otherwise, we will have applauded the seeds of our own demise.