Somali Pirates Are Organized. 
Speaking Sunday 23 to Robert Wright, Financial Times, at London re the havoc in Suez Canal shipping caused by the pirates out of Somalia and other Indian Ocean ports. Ninety-five
ships have been attacked, thirty-nine taken, and fourteen are still held, the most famous right now being the Saudi owned Sirius Star (at anchor with pirates on board), a tanker with $100 million of crude and a crew that assumes it will be ransomed. None of this is cheap. The merchant fleets are plotting to bypass the Gulf of Aden, where the attacks are commonplace, and route the long route around the Cape of Good Hope. (The Sirius Star is too deep a draft for the Suez Canal and was bound for the Cape of Good Hope; it was 400 nautical miles off Somalia, when it was taken: note by Robert Wright on Sunday 23, that no one onboard Sirius Star would have imagined they were under threat that far at sea: this is a new level of risk.) This adds 20 days from the India Ocean to Europe or North America and, if you are a Suezmax tanker, adds $1 million to the insurance costs and a lot of yelling in London and Brussels. The questions is why is this happening? The pirates are striking far at sea from small boats launched from mother ships. This is organized warfare. Who?
Al Qaeda Is Focused
Is it coincidence that Ayman al-Zawahiri's trash talking video message, that was recorded sometime between November 5 and 11, mentioned the "lions of Islam in Somalia?"
And I tell my brothers, the lions of Islam in Somalia: rejoice in victory and conquest. America is gathering its wounds in Iraq, and Ethiopia is looking for a way out, and for this reason, the stage of conspiracies and machinations has begun. So hold tightly to the truth for which you have given your lives, and don't put down your weapons before the Mujahid state of Islam and Tawheed has been set up in Somalia.
My best source on Ummah signals reminds me that Al Qaeda continues to plot to take over Somalia, and that it has struggled these years because of the chaos, anarchy, just general degradation of the population. Al Qaeda needs a government on hand in order to make a revolution and impose Shariah law. Connect the dots? Not yet. The whole of the Horn of Africa has been collapsing for many years. Men (right, captured pirates in the docket at Mombasa, Kenya November 18) driven from their tribes and herding by famine, drought, war in Ethiopia and Eritrea, the four horseman of the Apocalypse and a complete abandonment of the region by the EU and the Gulf States, all this has created a darkness visible that is growing. Now with the recessions in the Western economies, the beggaring of the petro-dictatorships, the collapse of commodity prices in Africa and Asia, there is no hope to wait for. A Marxist would conclude that the pirates are revolting against the ruling classes. A Capitalist would conclude that the pirates are acting on favorable market conditions. But still, this is Somalia.
Blackhawk Down, the Original
My memory is that the connection between the "Blackhawk Down" incident of October 3-4 1993, also called the First Battle of Mogadishu, and the jihadists who became Al Qaeda was not firmly fixed. My best signal source for all sources was clear to me over many years that the attack on the American Task Force Ranger was a premeditated strike by Osama Bin Laden's agents. My best source often asserted that Al Qaeda was born at Khartoum in '93, and the first two efforts were the attack on the American embassy in Khartoum and the attack on the Mogadishu expedition. The official American explanation in '93 and still today is that the attack was a spontaneous riot, that the hundreds of armed attackers just appeared spontaneously to go up against American automatic weapons and American and Pakistani counter-attacks, and that the fact that the Somali militia wielded RPGs was not significant. Yes, Osama Bin Laden was deported from Khartoum in 1996, when he settled in Afghanistan. Yes, Al Qaeda has long recruited on the Indian Ocean coast of Africa. But sill, no confirm from the DoD or the historians of Mogadishu. (Left, one of the Task Force Ranger helicopters enroute to the incident on October 3, 1993.)
The Other Detail in Minnesota and Maine
Sunday 23 speaking also to Diana West, whose Townhall column puzzles about the strangely porous State Department program that has permitted thousands of Africans, especially Somalis, into the US as relatives of legal immigrants. The facts are that most of these relatives are likely frauds. In a test case of 3500, only twenty percent were legitimately relatives. I wrote Diana that I have watched Lewiston, Maine for many years, where thousands of Somalis have settled through the State Department program, and in turn have brought in their relatives legally. The Somalis are called economic refugees, a legacy of the original Somalia expedition launched by George H.W. Bush and Jim Baker in 1992. The Clinton administration inherited the Mogadishu catastrophe in 1993. Then two of the coldest states in the country inherited the refugee remnant who now, fifteen years later, have become active, voting American citizens (left at Lewiston, Maine November 4, 2008). But what about these fraud reports? And what about the Somali pirates? And what about al-Zawahiri's "lions of Islam at Somalia?" Coincidences?
Update 21:30.
Ummah signals source writes that DoD intel today acknowledges a highly probable AQ link to the 1993 Mogadishu attacks:
"...In 1993, Osama bin Laden himself told Peter Bergen and al Quds al Arabi newspaper in London that AQ was involved. OBL had left Saudi Arabia in a a fury with his supporters in 1992 and moved to Sudan. East Africa became a major focus for AQ at this time because of its proximity to Sudan and because of the US and UN intervention in Somalia. Thus, the strength of the Nairobi, Mombasa and Mogadishu cells. From Sudan AQ attempted to establish a solid foothold in Somalia in the 90s but was unsuccessful. West Point's Combating Terrorism Center (CTC) recently released a wealth of translated captured interal AQ documents that detail the challenges that the terrorists faced.
"The West was defeated and fled Somalia.. [But] the original problem that you went to address still exists. What happened to the Somali Salafia and where is it now.? Did you suddenly go to Somalia and suddenly withdraw, as happened in Afghanistan, without accomplishing any clear objective or follow up the victory and benefit from it to accomplish additional victories?"
(AQ writer, circa 1995, complaining that AQ had abandoned its mission in Somalia.)
http://ctc.usma.edu/aq/aq_somaliaII.asp#_ftnref9
CTC states: "Conventional thinking suggests that Somalia, a failed state, would be an ideal safe haven for al-Qa'ida. Our analysis, however, indicates that weakly governed regions such as coastal Kenya, not failed states like Somalia, provide an environment more conducive to al-Qa'ida's activities. In Somalia, al-Qa'ida's members fell victim to many of the same challenges that plague Western interventions in the Horn. They were prone to extortion and betrayal, found themselves trapped in the middle of incomprehensible (to them) clan conflicts, faced suspicion from the indigenous population, had to overcome significant logistical constraints and were subject to a constant risk of Western military interdiction."
http://ctc.usma.edu/aq/aq_exsumII.asp
There are no coincidences. There are only prefect storms, perfectly engineered by the enemies of America and all that she stands for. For a long time now there have been rumors that Katrina provided the opportunity for the Bush administration to kill black people. Whether or not you believe this depends on which side you’re on.
What strikes me is that president-elect Obama appears supremely confident. This is strange when considering all the problems he’ll be facing when he takes office. Let’s assume for a moment that Obama has no interest in how to go about fixing things. “Fixing things” would imply bringing things back to how we were before. This however, would clash with his campaign mantra of “change” which became so attractive to so many (shallow but well-meaning) voters. Perhaps bringing it all back to the way it was is not on Obama’s agenda? Perhaps we will be treated to strategies (at home and abroad) we have never seen before; ditto, results.
If this be indeed the case, then throw out your weighing scales and yard sticks; throw out your economic charts and history books. No measure will suffice to gage our new president’s success (or failure). We may well find ourselves adrift in uncharted waters. We’ve chosen to ignore the signs – like Obama’s decades long association with Liberation Theology. I dare say that very few of us would feel comfortable with the base assumptions that allow for the kind of sermons we have heard by the likes of Wright and Pfleger. Were such assumptions, however, to become mainstream through the active endorsement and promotion of the POtUS, only isolated pockets of citizens would be qualified to determine whether or not progress is being made. The rest would likely feel left out of the process, marginalized and stunned. There might well be some resistance to accepting the new order, but without political clout any opposition would find itself mostly spitting into the wind.
When the Iranian people decided they could no longer tolerate the Shah and needed a change, they had no idea of what they would get. They embraced the Ayatollah Khomeini as an alternative to the rampant corruption they had been shown to exist. This embrace was reciprocated and almost immediately transformed itself into a stranglehold from which Iranians have yet to find an escape. The same thing happened in Gaza when Hamas was elected. In each case, the people voted AGAINST something rather than FOR something. In our case, we voted against Bush (even though Bush was not running). We had become so desperate to put the Bush years behind us, we chose to ignore anything questionable or negative in connection with the “other” candidate.
May Obama's embrace of our nation be inclusive and gentle. We have already demonstrated our willingness to sacrifice for the greater good of all. Let us hope that “all” will mean “us” as well; that we will not be asked to give more than we can; that we ourselves will not be sacrificed in the interest of settling old scores going back to the Crusades, as some continue to demand.
A Political Science expert would conclude that there is a power vacuum in the area, and the UN/Admiralty courts are hamstrung since noone wants to be accused of racism by sinking Somali pirate ships.
Racism is the new inquisition, once used as a tool to ridicule the US (especially GOP administrations). Impossible to defend against, everyone avoids the subject rather than speak the truth. African nations that used racism in the past for Int'l Aid now have corrupt governments and never receive criticism. The trained cobra is now attacking the flute player.
EU is feckless and will not even patrol their own vital oil lifelines and waterways. Why should the US ever come to the EU's aid when they won't defend themselves?
India has sunk one Pirate Mother ship, India is looking to become a regional power. Egypt needs to defend their suez revenue as well.
Thinking about these pirates, I couldn’t help but wonder how all the world’s navies could stop these guys. The waters around the horn are too vast to be able watch over very merchant ship that transverses it. At this point an international convoy system seems unlikely. I noticed that these pirates are also hitting fishing ships. I think back to World War I, back then German U-Boats would surface and use there deck guns to sink ships that they didn’t want to use their very valuable torpedoes on. The British countered this with the Q-Ship, vessels that bristled with hidden guns but looked like a harmless merchant ship. When the U-boat would surface and come within range the Q-ship’s gun would pop out of their hiding places and flail the U-boat with gunfire. Maybe it’s time for a modern day version of the Q-Ship.
Somali Pirates in Discussions to Acquire Citigroup
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081121.WBstreetwise20081121112035/WBStory/WBstreetwise
Like so many "new" angles, the world powers will wait until this problem is completely beyond simple repair and then try to negotiate something--paying a toll instead of a ransom.
My sources :) tell me one could defend one of these ships with little armament. Perhaps we could form a volunteer force of guys who like to shoot things up and put 2-3 on every vessel with a 50 cal machine gun or their own RPG. That said, let the Saudi's and Iranians figure it out--its their cargo.
Or like Hugh Hewitt inquired the other night: why don't we just bomb Elee (sp?), the apparent center of pirate action. It's a bit over the top but it would be so much fun to watch--as when when Reagan bombed Khadaffi's tent.
IF HELICOPTERS WON'T WORK, USE A DRONE
It seems an attack drone is the perfect weapon to use
against pirates. All you need is a mother ship in the middle of the mess from which to launch.
NSA/CIA/DoD/NATO/Russian/Chinese satellites see everything. Mining the ports of these pirate dens would be a very quick solution; once again Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) would scream bloody murder.
Drones are great, so are bomber jets. Mercenaries (US, Russian, Israeli) could storm these ships in 5 minutes if they were paid well enough and given immunity. Piracy is a high crime and needs to be treated as such, alas the international community prefers hand wringing over decisive action.
Arrrr.....
I think it's too much to be just coincidence that this whole pirate problem started right after the "Pirates of the Caribbean" series was so popular. My guess is that it will turn out that Johnny Depp is behind this whole thing, somehow.
Seriously, John, you could devote the whole 3 hours on Sunday to discussing the pirate problem, for my money. Ferget about the scurvy dogs in Washington and let's take to the high seas..... Yarrrr!!
I saw this today in the National Post (Canada)..it's a primer on the Somali pirates: http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/posted/archive/2008/11/20/today-in-piracy-who-are-these-pirates-and-why-are-they-running-amok.aspx
It is so profoundly absurd, these times we live in, this matrix of denial, deceit, a-morality... and a Goebbles-esque all-too-willing MSM.. that truly words are insufficient, to decribe. Indeed "racism is the new inquisition", but it must be added that we allowed it to happen, by never challenging, and being too fearful to expose it's trappings.
In another era, an era of logical honest thought, "Rev" Wright, et. al. would either be in prison, or pariahs, or both.
AQ is a franchise-operation. AQ is a meme.
Salafist elements, who conquered most of Somalia in 2006, were driven into hiding by the Ethiopian Army. Now, they are again in control of much of the South.
The problem is that the Ethiopian intervention at the end of 2006 weakened the authority of the Clan leaders who acquiesced. Think of the low land clan leaders who did not follow Wallace or Robert the Bruce and what became of their descendants during the Reformation.
Tough to tell if any of this ransom money is going to Salafists or to any "Big AQ" reps who may be on scene. Certainly, it keeps things at a level where the courts and charitable efforts and preachers that t he Salafists sponsor are the best game in town.
The problem with failed states is not that they are failed states. The problem is who restores order and what template they use.
Somalis are not big fishermen, as I recall. A lot of these guys are probably smugglers.
I'm glad your covering this story - it's intriguing. In referency to Amity Shaeles and her book the Forgotton Man, while we don't yet have the eqiuvalent of Smoot-Hawley there does seem to be a breakdown in, I'm not sure what to call it, civility/order in international shipping - the collapse of these letters of credit and now pirates. We may get the same breakdown in international trade that exacerbated the great depression even without legislation.
Thomas Jefferson had to deal with Barbary Pirates as did James Madison. This is nothing new, and back then there was Napoleon and the Ottomans to blame for the power vacuum. Where are the Knights Of Malta now? Smile. Anyway, as far as Katrina goes, mr. chocolate city himself and governor Landreau screwed up long before Bush had the opportunity to get involved. Look at the difference with Jindal. They got a couple hurricanes this year and not a peep.
"Landreau" was not the governor. Most of the most useful parts of the Louisiana National Gurad were in Iraq. The state arguably was the most effective player.