Spoke Arif Rafiq, Bill Roggio, Rufus Phillips, re the sudden diplomatic flap between Pakistan and the UK. PM David Cameron remarked at Delhi that Pakistan is untrustworthy and in league with terror teams. Soon after, the Zardari government split with the Pakistan Army ISI. Now Zardari will travel to London; General Shah, head of ISI, will not. What is happening? Allies at odds? What does it mean? The AfPak landscape is changing again. It is not about Kabul. It is about Pakistan. The 63-year-old feud since the Partition Riot. The unfinished business of the break-up of the British Empire. And before that, the 1000-year-old tribal scramble for supremacy from the Indus River Valley to the Nile River Valley. The next round has nukes. Mention that Michael Vlahos indicates that the US Navy is now concerned to war-game the eventuality of a crisis of globalization that will de-stabilize all Westphalian states. Such as a collapse of the 20 million people at Karachi. The Afghan war logs provide a window for Delhi and Islamabad to climb into the old enmity. Cameron spoke at Delhi. The Pakistanis start this day convinced that they are going to be overrun by Delhi. The initial Pakistani explanation for the accusations against the ISI was that the USG was using WikiLeaks in order to undermine Islamabad. Now the explanation is that the USG is using Whitehall in league with Delhi to wreck Pakistan's national security. Paranoids have enemies. Winston Churchill watched the collapse of the empire. Now Churchill watches from the lecture room (Bonaparte prattling on). Battle of the Indus, Part 2.
In many ways, India finds itself in the position of Israel. It has intractable neighbors hell-bent on drawing it into a vortex of dysfunction. The grand puppet master is China of which Pakistan is a client state. China has made it no secret that it wants to see India broken up into separate and competing regions that would be helpless in the face of a Chinese advance. The best way to accomplish this is to drain focus and resources away from what it takes to maintain India’s identity.
India has fashioned itself as a western-style democracy which by definition requires the participation - economically and politically - of all its people. If large segments of its population could be persuaded to opt out, India would no longer exist as a nation.
Pakistan is a failed state, created by the good will of the Indian power brokers after the British colonialists had been forced to retreat. It was determined that each of the two countries would pursue separate paths and that these would prove incompatible within the confines of a single laboratory. Still, it was hoped that the two nations could exist side by side in relative peace. Israel’s desire to live side by side with a fully-functioning Palestinian state reflects a similar desire. In both cases, this goal looked achievable on paper. In reality it was not to be so.
While India prospered, Pakistan disintegrated into a failed state. Failed states typically fall under the control of more powerful regional actors. These then determine their fate and function. Pakistan has become a tool in China’s hands to destabilize India just as the Palestinian conflict has become a tool in Iranian hands to destabilize Israel.
It is easy to be distracted by the flashpoints in the world and dismiss the role of the grand puppet masters. Every time there is a problem between Pakistan and India we should be looking at China. Every time there is a problem between Israel and Palestinians we should be looking at Iran.
Success and failure cannot exist side by side. The words ’success’ and ’failure’ are interchangeable. What one side deems as ’success’ is ‘failure’ from the other’s perspective. Totalitarianism does not tolerate democracy. Islam does not tolerate infidels and so on… Therefore we have a problem that can only be resolved by power and the willingness to use it. We have reached the limit of what can be achieved by appeasement alone.
America’s challenge is to rediscover what it stands for and then to fully support those of like mind who may find themselves in trouble: in this case, India and Israel.
I find it fascinating how we kowtow to the Chinese. We are afraid that they will stop buying our debt. They are well aware of the power we allow them to wield over us; that we will do nothing to provoke them. Why don’t we just turn it around and use the same weapon against them? Why don’t we just come out with it and say we are broke and are no longer able to service our debt; that the U.S. paper they hold is worthless? Why don’t we just tell them outright that if they don’t call of their attack dogs - North Korea and Pakistan - we will announce to the world, making it official, that we’re broke, thus putting an end to the charade?
Their government would likely fall; as would ours. The question then becomes: What would take its place? My bet is on the American people who would make a fresh and positive start of it given their present advantage. China, Pakistan, India, Israel, Iran - who knows? One thing is for certain: We’ll have to get ourselves right before we can even think of doing anything for anybody else.
http://peterkoelliker.blogspot.com/
http://pkoelliker.blogspot.com/
The problem really arises when governments start to believe their politic fictions are reality.
That's a nice photograph of Sir Winston with a Tommy gun. God knows what POTUS present would pose with, and I am much too nice to make any suggestions.
Buckingham Palace will NEVER tell Her Majesty's Government on how to perform foreign policy, but creating enmity amongst Commonwealth nations is very Taboo.
Pakistan has been untrustworthy, as proven by the WikiLeaks. India is becoming one of America's better allies in Asia.
Indian colleague flew in the Indian Air Force and for Air India, India gave air cover to Bangladesh(formerly East Pakistan) after they declared Independence From "West Pakistan." One would imagine Pakistan is still bitter over that issue.
Partition is always a difficult matter, Ireland, Korea, The Carolinas and Dakotas. Irish PM Mary MacAleese was the guest of Honour at the Belfast Police College last week, this would have been unthinkable 10 years ago.
Mary MacAleese is President of Ireland, More ceremonial than policy making. The President is head of State but is not head of Government.