Spoke with Malcolm Hoenlein with regard to the war drums across MENA (Middle East North Africa), and we specially focused on the slow motion fail of the Jordan governance, the rogue state of Sinai, and the exchange of artillery fire along the Turkey-Syria border. My information is that the decision is made to launch an aggressive artillery barrage from Turkey that will clear a corridor up to 10 km deep that is said to provide humanitarian relief for refugees from the gateway city of Aleppo to the Turkish border. The decision is agreed upon by Ankara, Cairo, Riyadh and Doha. Mohammed Morsi leads other Arab chiefs in declaring that Bashar al-Assad has no place in future negotiations and must go. My information is that Assad can and will fight to the end. The fresh risk is that Tehran will turn Hizballah onto rocket Israel in the event of Turkish aggression. Why? Because then the Turkey aggression can be presented as a Zionist plot. I am not manufacturing. This is a credible explanation in MENA to any violent confrontation.
Turkey has fired retaliatory strikes into Syria for a second day after a mortar from Syria killed five Turkish civilians. Locals said the shooting around the border town of Acakale was last heard at 5am.
What of the US and POTUS? The enemies can read a desk calendar, same as you. With five weeks to the US election, with POTUS Obama perceived as an ally of the so-called Syria opposition -- a creature of Turkish Intelligence with US weapons and Gulf cash -- then the next weeks are ripe for action that cannot easily be constrained by Big Power intervention or rebuke. PM Erdogan of Turkey says that he does not seek war. The action will be presented as incremental humanitarian rescue of civilians at the mercy of piratical Syrians. This scenario also includes the report that Jihadists have been imported from MENA (Libya, for example) to cut throats in Aleppo of any who will not participate in the revolt from the Allawite and Hizballah and Iranian cutthroats who work for the Assad regime. War warning in stages: and yes, the conflict resembles the Responsibility to Protect gambit of 2011 Libya, and now serves as a global distraction. AKA October Surprise comes in like a long-expected assassin. Surprised? Unknown.