What's News Tonight

Where the Consumers are

2012-02-07T06:22:29Z

Evan Newmark worries about consumer spending with witty Spencer Jakab. POTUS re-elect needs the consumer to get involved in the recovery. This will increase the growth of wholesale jobs, transportation and manufacturing jobs, that we saw in the January jobs numbers. The housing crush remains the unknown. Watching consumer sentiment also, because it moved down for January, from 64 back down to 61. Wrong direction. The virtuous circle is when the sentiment follows the jobs growth follows the spending follows the Spring. Spoke to John Avlon and Taegan Goddard re the ABC/WaPo poll that shows Obama gaining again among independents over the likely Romney nomination, 48 to 44. Also shows Obama doing as well with white voters with Romney as he did with McCain in 2008. Doing better with Romney than McCain with college educated white voters. The GDP is the rival, not the GOP. Consumer spending? That is the known unknown.

Halftime in America

2012-02-06T05:29:55Z

Chrysler uses Clint Eastwood to present an inspiringf 2 minute ad for the Superbowl, and it is fun to imagine how this copy fits the Obama re-election. Noted that David Axelrod tweeted on the ad from Chicago: "davidaxelrod David Axelrod: "Powerful spot. Did Clint shoot that, or just narrate it?" Easy to understand the connection. It would be a catchy slogan for the two-terms, "It's halftime in America." Will Chicago respond? I did not see the game, and I see now it was close and the NYG prevailed. Fine. The Obama re-elect is still searching for a formula: Run against Congress. Run against the economy. Run against Romney. What the Obama team needs is something to run for. For the comeback? That makes sense. Can they get to it? Rachel Maddow has already blogged "Clint Eastwood wins the Superbowl." The GOP keeps repeating the argument that Obama is inadequate to the office. This is assertion and repetition. The GOP needs an inspirational theme that takes hold of the American exceptionalism that Clint Eastwood celebrates in Detroit.

Daytona Blues

2012-02-05T06:08:39Z

The GOP will gather at Daytona Beach, Valusia County, for the 2012 nomination convention (I am corrected by quick and generous correspondents: fog of mind: the Daytona Beach crowd is a purple district, watching the GOP closely), and this essay by Arian Campo-Flores anticipates the hard times in the area will fill in a sympathetic backdrop. Am dubious. The Trump endorsement of Romney is as far from Daytona Blues as possible. The Romney campaign is off-key, and it is difficult in this strangely mild winter of our discontent to figure how Romney can recover. The PEW poll of some weeks back showed 55% of the respondents think Obama understand the middle class problems, while only 39% understand. Game over unless and until. Romney makes a torch song out of his management skills. Romney warbles that he can restore the economy and make dreams come true. Will Daytona Beach listen?

Jobs to Last Hope

2012-02-04T05:04:47Z

Spoke Brendan Conway, DowJones, re the positive jobs report for January (Dec 15 to January 15). The manufacturing, mining and transportation jobs are especially encouraging, and when combined with the increase of the ISM non-farm index, what we see is the right direction. Enterprises grew workforces, bought resources, produced goods for the consumers. The December number was revised downward, yet both reports are over 200,000. There was false starts in 2010 and 2011, and so there is reason to hesitate that the recovery is in place. Will the virtuous circle take hold? Spoke Dan Henninger, WSJ, re the Obama SOTU that the president took on the road to Arizona last week. Dan Henninger's POV is that POTUS will not only run against the do-nothing Congress but also he will run against the do-nothing economy. POTUS is preaching hope for America to "build stuff." POTUS understands that the voters respond to heart more than brain. Dan Henninger argues that the GOP must figure how to inspire with more than the Romney promises of better management. POTUS sells hope for the morrow: "An America Built to Last." POTUS must have an improving GDP to hold the White House. For now, that is in place. POTUS does not mention the entitlements that he aims to build to last. POTUS does not mention what he aims to do with the revenues (taxes) from the building. Will this work? Unknown.

Awkward GOP Alert

2012-02-03T06:40:44Z

Spoke McKay Coppins, Buzzfeed, at Las Vegas re the macabre event at the Trump Resort on the Strip where Donald Trump the ex-Republican endorsed Mitt Romney the always new Republican. Theories proliferate as to what the Romney campaign sees in the Trump embrace? Distraction? Glamor? Grotesque comparison? What does Romney gain from having a swell-heaed billionaire (so-called) praise you on a chintzy stage set? It's not that Nevada was slipping away. Rump doesn't even vote in Nevada. Working suggestion is that Romney hopes to draw attention away from his "I don't worry about the very poor" remark. Also it is possible that it was meant as a game with Gingrich, who believed he would be the one Trump praised. Who is worse to hang around with that a guy you can imagine say sincerely, "Let them eat cake."? The Obama re-elect doesn't need to do more than stand back and puzzle as to why this keeps getting easier for them. Is Romney blind and deaf? McKay Coppins reported that the young Romney rooters in the room, and the general working press, were perplexed. Romney's strange progress to GOP banner-bearer is a special treat. Two awkward peacocks who are neither of them much partisan Republican or even especially politically astute.

Newt Rising 46

2012-02-01T07:04:17Z

Newt Gingrich's vow to continue the battle with Mitt Romney for the next five months is heaven-sent electioneering. Spoke Bill McGurn, WSJ, re the absence of ideas in the Romney campaign in FL. The negativity drove down turn-out. Newt Gingrich makes no apologies. Spoke Larry Kudlow, re the Gingrich attacks on Bain; and Kudlow observed that the Gingrich attacks on Bain were wasted breath and wrong-headed. Spoke Taegan Goddard re the Romney campaign negativity. Puzzle if Romney attacks continue? Romney impressed some with his below the belt style.

Twilight of the Gods, GOP Scenario

2012-01-31T01:02:31Z

by John Batchelor Jan 30, 2012 4:45 AM EST

A GOP professional laments the "slime and dirt and muck attached not only to the two candidates but also to the party itself."

The primary campaign nastiness between Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich is exhausting Republican loyalists. What in Iowa was a feisty contest between the haughty Mr. Romney and the operatic Mr. Gingrich turned hollow in New Hampshire and harsh in South Carolina. By the close of the Florida scramble, with the Herman Cain Express back from the repair yard to hitch onto the Newt baggage car, what remains of the Republican dialogue does not appear likely to be of much worth for the fall campaign....MORE

Lessons Learned from the Hacking: "Black Hole Exploit Kit"

2012-01-29T19:16:49Z

The black hole discovered in the galaxy NGC 3842 dwarfs our Solar System.

The JBS site was hacked and malware was distributed on it sometime very early Friday morning, January 27. My thanks to my web colleagues who have cleaned out the hack attackers and their malware (the site is acceptable again to the Google watchtowers) and taught me what took the site down from Friday 27 until Sunday 29 January. I learn the that method of attack was a relatively new malware weapon system (dating from December 2011) called the "Black Hole Exploit Kit. (BEP)" The suspects may well be Russian hackers, who are always perfecting their code to avoid detection by the defense systems. The entry method is the old-fashioned phising, that is inserting a false link in the posts that let the BEP enter the site. I learn from the "Imperva Data Security Blog" that this new BEP is able to avoid detection up to 70% of the time:

What's New?
The new black hole exploit kit has been out and we've had a chance to deconstruct it. Before we get super geeky, some general observations about the innovation in this kit:

Malware developers continue to use the latest tools to encrypt their malware to evade anti-virus (AV) software. As usual, the encryption signature is new, avoiding AV--our analysis showed that 70 percent of AV software would miss this altogether. This serves as a not-so-gentle reminder the fundamental problem with signature based AV--it changes every week with the use of a new encryption algorithm.
Hackers are deploying resiliency. In the past, we've seen hackers deploy a single exploit server. In this case, there were four that could be redirected if any of the URLs was taken down.

What are BEPs?
An exploit kit, a browser exploit pack (BEP) is a toolkit that automates the exploitation of client side vulnerabilities.

The toolkit is a bundle of PHP and HTML files with a list of exploit files (including JAVA, PDF, Browsers, Adobe Flash Player ...etc) designed to target the operating system, browser or other client side application. Toolkits are usually heavily obfuscated using some known or unknown obfuscation and crypto algorithms tools to avoid detection by anti-virus vendors.

Black hole is yet another web exploit kit developed by Russian hackers. Blackhole is a very powerful kit with a number of recent exploits including Java and Adobe PDF exploits. One blog published (with updates) a great overview of the most known exploit packs.

Koobfaced Gang.

I also learn that there are a host of suspects, though the Imperva blogger aims his remarks at the Russians. My conversation with Misha Glenny teaches me (author: Darkmarket: Cyberthieves, Cybercops and You, Knopf 2012) that the phishing attacks are well-known to a variety of hackers, from Odessa to Petersburg to Berlin to San Francisco. I have covered a number of these issues recently. Most readily, I spoke to the NYT Riva Richmond a week ago, Friday 20 January, about the Petersburg-based Russian hackers called the "Koobfaced Gang," who are regarded as especially successful. They used to employ Facebook to attack and steal by using phony vendors (no delivery) or selling their power to redirect traffic to fraudsters. A member of the Koobfaced Gang posted the picture to to left to Foursquare, which included the coordinates on an accompanying map. Bold and trite, by Misha Glenny has taught me that the Russia hackers know they are safe in Russia as long as they do not mess with Russian based sites. Facebook is said to have made it no longer worth their while, and they have gone elsewhere. Perhaps it was the Koobfaced Gang just swinging by to leave a calling card. What is odd about the attack is that it is a major weapon system, newly developed and most effective so far against lots of guardians. My site is non-commercial: no cash, no credit cards, no passwords, nothing to steal or exploit or manipulate. It is a bookish record of the show's ceaseless conversation with authors, professors, journalists, editorial writers and think-tankers. What use a BEP?

So Many Villains, So Little Time.

We did entertain the possibility of the China geniuses, since Gordon Chang sits with me as co-host each Wednesday, and he was mostly rewarded for his diligence in criticizing the China Communist Party's bullies and bosses by having the People's Daily declare him an "enemy of the state." Then too Malcolm Hoenlein and I sit together each Thursday and speak roughly of the Tehran Twelvers and their stooges. China and Iran both have their share of clever hackers.

Mitt & Newt Buy Greek Bonds from Obama

2012-01-26T06:56:39Z

The thrill of the the Newt Opera hits the pause button after February 4 as we must wait until the March Super Tuesday to enjoy the Romney bashing again. By then, we will have two more jobs numbers and three more measures of the housing market for the Spring selling. The big wind that will shape the year is blowing foulweather from the East. The situation in Europe faces a climax in Greece in March, and speaking to Landon Thomas, NYT, and Jack Ewing, IHT, there does not appear an acceptable remedy. The ECB bought Greek bonds at 70-75 cents on the Euro, and it wants all its money back. Hedge funds and banks bought Greek bonds at 40 cents on the Euro, and it wants the same as everyone else gets in the managed failure, which could mean 50 cents. Meanwhile, the negotiators argue that the hedgies are "free riders"and must take a loss. Now you see how funny this will get, as everyone who bought Greek bonds weeks ago is trying to dump them at 30 cents on the dollar or less. And the Obama administration is counting on a recovery in 2012. Also, Gordon Chang and Patrick Chovanec and Joe Sternberg convincingly present the case that the China economy is sagging with capitol flight as the property bubble deflates. Again, the Obama team is counting on China and Europe to stabilize? Can the US recover while the Greek-fuelled EU (below, happy days ever again in Athens?) and Asia stagnate? Unknown.

SOTU Greatest Hits Mashup

2012-01-25T18:18:00Z

RNC compares all three Obama SOTU to discover a consistently platitudinous repetition. If it didn't work last year, or the year before, then let's make sure it doesn't work again this year. Watch the Fed announce it does not plan to raise rates until the end of 2014, after the mid-term Elections. This is unhappy portent. Speaking to Landon Thomas, NYT, about the protracted negotiations in the Eurozone re the Greek debt due in March. The ECB wants to be paid in full. The banks and hedgies holding Greek debt will bot take less than 50% on the Euro. What does this mean for 2012 Election? It means that POTUS in SOTU skipped the European recession mention because the White House knows that this is already a year of struggles and blame-shifting. China's slowdown is because the global economies are slowing. All this aims at a sluggish jobs picture, as the employers here hesitate again in mid-Winter to hire. The excellent weather in January will help boost the jobs created number due next week. Is it enough to boost Obama re-elect to IA, AZ, NM, NV (the Western path to 270)? Unknown. Spoke Ed Lazear, Hoover:

Wednesday, 1/25/12 - John Batchelor's Heads Up Minute: Is the jobs picture improving, or stagnating, or deteriorating? I'm John Batchelor; this is the Heads-Up Minute. The Obama administration is delighted with the gain of 200,000 private-sector jobs in the final month of 2011. Also positive was a separate report that showed the US jobless rate is back down to 8.5%. Another positive is that first-time unemployment claims declined to about 350,000. I learn from Stanford professor and Hoover Fellow Ed Lazear, who was chairman of George W. Bush's Council of Economic Advisors, that another important measure is not so rosy. It compares the number of people fired to the number who quit in a month. At long last, the quits outnumber the fireds- but just barely. Also, the number of monthly hires today is just about the same as it was in January 2009, at the depths of the collapse. Conclusion: the jobs market still needs a long, long recuperation. I'm John Batchelor. Listen or Download this show

Newt Opera Sings

2012-01-23T22:10:29Z

by John Batchelor Jan 23, 2012 4:45 AM EST

The professionals can see that at least for the next few months the GOP is burdened with a handful of shopworn candidates who cannot be collectively cobbled into a winner.

Newt Gingrich's passionate one-man victory in the South Carolina primary has established the 2012 GOP nomination as a comic opera to enjoy during another winter of discontent.... more

POTUS vs Pirates of the GOP

2012-01-21T23:37:12Z

"We can go in two directions, one is for less opportunity and less fairness...I am going to lay out a blueprint...homegrown and alternative energy sources...getting people the skills they need...a return to American values...how we do it... "

POTUS Obama presents the fog of the campaign early in order to give time for his team to build an alternative narrative that argues that a vote for the GOP is a vote for plutocracy. This implies that a vote for Obama is a vote for democracy. Simple, goofy, paint-by-numbers rhetoric. The general rules say that the incumbent gets to name the game. The game is Pirates of the GOP. Can the GOP nominee Mitt Romney present American capitalism in some fashion other than as piracy? Unlikely to the satisfaction of the referees (TV). There is something fun about this game. Obama is the Federal collective from Heaven, protecting the needy civilians, the self-named 99%. The GOP is the feudal pirate ship from Hades, raiding the shoreline at the bidding of the 1%. What's the solution to this cartoon contest? (Whisper: the Q2 GDP has the final vote.)

Obama Sings Romney

2012-01-21T05:00:00Z

Above is a small clip of POTUS singing for his cash in NYC, and it is a measure of how effective Mr. Obama can be on the trail. The GDP is the major challenge for Obama; however, in the meantime, the Chicago re-elect will gather acorns. The GOP squabble in SC and FL, and then the February and March primaries, will shape Mitt Romney as he prepares to confront Obama next August. Spoke Dan Henninger, WSJ, re the work that Bain Capital did in the 20th century, the new face of private equity refashioning the bigness of American business into a full value for the new century. Henninger argues that Mitt Romney has a grand story to tell about the struggles of his father, George Romney, struggles from Mexico, to a wipe-out in the Depression, to the head of American Motors and Michigan governor. Mitt Romney made the same climb to become super-wealthy, and if he can get past his reluctance, the Bain success is as admirable a trajectory as the climb of POTUS Obama. Romney is the only man who can tell the story of what he did and why. Capitalism is under assault by political professionals in the GOP and in the Democratic party. POTUS Obama will make the case that his administration will protect the American people from the ravages of Wall Street; and Obama can sing the blues better than anyone. Romney has the defense case, methodical, fact-filled, necessary.

Dueling Solyndra

2012-01-19T07:08:47Z

The duelling ad buys between the Koch Brothers (Karl Rove) Americans for Prosperity and the Obama re-elect ignite the 2012 presidential campaign with a Napoleonic crescendo. The facts about Solyndra are trite, tawdry and most unflattering to the Obama White House. It is fresh to me that the Obama team sees this as a matter of ethics, and that it lays claim to "unprecedented" ethical behavior. (And is it significant that this quote is from April, 2009, during the period that the White House was pushing money into Solyndra?) It is also odd that Obama is pictured in a field of solar panels that are easy to link to the Solyndra fairy tale of green jobs springing from the massive warehouse at Fremont, California. Why does POTUS Obama want to wade into the sad-sack timeline of the White House pushing Solyndra with the able assist of a campaign donor who visited the White House many times in 2009? Why bring this up now with the weight of POTUS face and voice? Unknown. Energy is also not a winning topic just now with the Keystone XL Pipeline. The best I can figure for all this unhappiness is that the Obama re-elect means to distract the audience from the grim-eyed GDP projections. In any event, a bang-bang start to a soaring year of allegation and hooting. Well done, both teams. Advantage "secretive oil billionaires!"

IRS Capital Gains On Trial!

2012-01-18T17:48:26Z

The DNC launches a well constructed attack on Mitt Romney as a plutocrat who pays profoundly less than his fair share of taxes. The DNC does nto mention, but I will, that the reason Romney pays as little at 15% is that this is the tax codes of the US as constructed by a thousand thousand hands over the last one hundred years. The Obama re-elect is putting the IRS code on trial, and of course we all cheer the Obama team for its genius. Guilty! Completely, it becomes more clear each week that the Obama re-elect aims to accuse Mitt Romney of the crime of capitalism and so forth piractical practices, such as taking advantage of the 15% capital gains tax that the wealthy folk pay on the income of their investment portfolios. Does Obama plan to be re-elected as a champion of fairness? Puzzle. Note that the White House hired a Bain veteran, Jeffrey Vients, to become the new OMB director. Note also that POTUS will give his inspirational acceptance speech next September in the "Bank of America" stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. Other smirking tricks will emerge from the Chicago directed Obama re-elect. The IRS to the axe! Wall Street to the axe! None of this will come to much if the World Bank new estimates of global growth for 2012 and 2013 are accurate. The World Bank lowers its estimates (cruel word: slashes), because of the Euro crisis. The US is in the category that will grow 1.4% at best in 2012. The public -- I learn from Lara Brown of Villanova, on the basis of her reading of the Gallup records of past incumbent president re-elects -- will make its decision on the election by Memorial Day, 2012. Will a 1.4% at best be enough to give Obama another four years? Unknown. The IRS is still guilty of a century of fickleness and farce.